Welcome to our weekly Captain’s Picks article. Every week we will look to elucidate potential captains for the forthcoming games and give you our opinions on each, but also analyse their recent form to help make that crucial decision a little easier for you. We will do this by using a new in-play performance index called Kickdex.
Kickdex
Every player has a single Kickdex value that updates every time anything happens on the field of play. This number represents the player’s contribution to their team. E.g. Suarez 32.2 (-2.34%). The second number shows the percentage difference since their last match.
Kickdex is at the cutting edge of sports analytics. Kickdex uses a complex algorithm using a number of advanced mathematical theories. This algorithm is perfect for analyzing team and player form, Kickdex adjusts for the relative strength of fixtures to remove the misconstrued view that form and performances aren’t always directly related to a team’s results and league position. A team or player may perform superbly, but unjustly lose because of a lucky deflection or outside influence.
If you wish to have a closer look at how Kickdex works, or have a look at the Kickdex web application yourself, head on over to:
Suarez v Aguero
Firstly we will compare the two big-hitters of the Barclays Premier League season thus far – namely Luis Suarez and Sergio Aguero, with 9 and 10 goals to their names respectively. Alongside being the league’s top goal scorer, Aguero has also provided 8 assists, with Suarez providing 4. It’s worth noting that Suarez only returned to action this season in GW6, by which time Aguero had already 3 goals and 2 assists to his name.
Although scoring a goal and providing an assist in the Merseyside derby this past weekend, we see the leading Kickdex performer drop by -2.34%, in comparison the rampant defeat of Tottenham by Manchester City, and the 2 goals and assist delivered by Aguero meant an increase of +10.4% for the Argentinian.
Suarez faces Hull away this coming Sunday and with Liverpool having the top Kickdex performance value you’d expect the in-form Uruguayan to extend his run. Liverpool have shown great consistency this season in terms of performance, likewise Hull have also been rather consistent, yet at a much lower level to the aforementioned Liverpool. Interestingly the only player who could offer some threat to Liverpool is Tom Huddlestone (20.17, +0.28%) who ranks closely with Glen Johnson (20.03, -0.76%) in terms of Kickdex value.
Aguero faces Swansea at home. City have been a different team when playing at the Etihad this season in comparison to their away games, evident in Aguero scoring double the amount of goals in home fixtures as opposed to away. Had we seen this fixture 3 or 4 game-weeks ago we could have been in for a much closer game, but looking at recent form and the trend of home performances by City it’s hard to ignore Aguero’s chances.
Lukaku v Benteke
Our next comparison will be between Romelu Lukaku and Christian Benteke, the ‘battle of the Belgians’ if you like. Both have struggled to replicate their form anywhere near to that of the end of the 2012/13 season. Benteke got off to a good start with 4 goals in 4 games and with these goals being against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool & Newcastle many thought the fixture-proof Belgian was back, but due to injury he was side-lined and has been unable to score since. Lukaku has had a mixed season thus far, though with 7 goals and 1 assist he’s hardly been a bad option, especially since he’s only played regularly since GW5.
Lukaku scored 2 goals in the Merseyside derby last weekend, which saw his decline in form suddenly take a turn for the better with an increase in Kickdex value of +11.35% from his previous match. Many will be hoping this will be the transformation in to the ‘beast’ that he is nicknamed. Benteke however, has continued to show a decrease in performance since his return from injury, another poor week sees his Kickdex value drop by -3.62%.
Everton host Stoke at home, and the consistency that Everton have shown this season so far will hopefully carry on. An out-of sort’s defensive display from them against Liverpool sees a drop in Kickdex value of -0.76%, regardless they still stand 4th in terms of overall performance this season. Stoke enter this fixture on the back of 3 good results, with an increase in performance from last week of +2.25%.
If Benteke could ask for a fixture to turn his season around, it couldn’t be any other than bottom of the table Sunderland. Going in to this match Villa have finally slowed their decline and although struggling to increase their performance value, a drop of only -1.75% could be the start of a U-turn where they hope to gather some momentum going in to the Christmas period. Sunderland have further dropped in value with a change of -4.68% since last week and worryingly for them they have a few tough games ahead.
Summary
Despite the criticisms of Liverpool lately, it seems that their form is quite consistent. For this reason giving Luis Suarez the captain’s armband remains a popular choice. Given the advantages of having the player with the highest Kickdex value playing for the team with the highest Kickdex value, it is quite predictable that Suarez will be amongst one of the top scoring players in the coming weeks.
Given the current high profile debate with regard to Sergio Aguero and Manchester City’s home performances of late, it is also a favourable option to choose the Argentinian. It is important however to consider the form of Swansea, and although out of form at present, last weekend’s win against Fulham could just ignite their season, nevertheless City remain overwhelming favourites.
Similarly, the form of Aston Villa will be worrying to Christian Benteke owners. However, with the return of teammates Andreas Weimann and Gabriel Agbonlahor we could well be about to see a fully fit Benteke get the support he needs, such support allowed him end last season, and start the current one so brilliantly. With a more than favourable fixture against Sunderland it could be the right time.
In the face of criticism from many fantasy football owners, Romelu Lukaku responded last weekend in a number of ways, making a big impact on the Merseyside derby. Stoke may struggle to contain ‘the beast’ and with the best minutes per goal ratio in Premier League history, rightly so. Everton have struggled of late but their consistent form throughout is a solid base for their attack which has now silenced many critics.
Worthy mentions that should be considered although not included in this article are: Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Olivier Giroud, Loic Remy, Eden Hazard, Steven Gerrard, and Adam Lallana.
Following our analysis of our 4 Captain’s Picks for GW13 we would love to hear your views below on which you are going for and why. Will it be any of our 4 or someone different? Don’t forget to cast your vote on our Captain’s Poll below.
Good luck to you all this gameweek, flingy (Sean).
[polldaddy poll=7596978]
People are talking about bringing Wishere in just because he looked sharp and scored 2 goals last night…
:crazy:
Hi guys,
Great site…
First time poster here and I could do with some advice.
Vorm (Harper)
Shaw Coleman Dawson (Clyne) (Dummett)
Ramsey Gerrard Coutinho parker (silva)
Suarez Aguero Remy
1FT and 1m in bank.
My first season in FPL, and I have now realised its more of a squad game then first 11. I had a decent GW last week, 72pts.
The Silva injury caught me out and im thinking of putting Silva back in when fit, i’m hoping he drops to 9m by the time hes back. I also want to get Roons in, think that would greatly improve my chances in the mini league. Could anyone advise me on what to do next. I was also thinking of maybe adding Whittingham of Cardiff soon??
Thanks in advance.
I forgot to add that it was Ravel I wanted to get in for Silva.
Not a bad side but you need to work on your weak players…….morrison is a good shout –
Parker will earn very few FF points. Dummet I have not heard of nor sen on any sides posted here so assume he is an alos ran. and having both shaw and clyne is not a great idea, especialy as shaw is injured.
Silva fo a similar priced player (Gerrard/Oscar/Hazard/Coutinho?)
Parker for Morrison is a straight swap for Morrison
Shaw for another low priced defender (a punt on the Liverpool lad Flanagan has caught my attention), or Vlaar/Collins, Collocini etc
In that order of transfer
Hope that helps
Good to see you here Shotts-As you can see we all love fresh meat.
Your problem players IMO.
Shaw, Coutinho,Parker,Silva.
Forget about Dummet atm.
I will give you alternatives
Shaw-CRY pal def 4.0 moxey or gabbidon-Pulis started. Good fixt coming up and proved they CAN keep a clean sheet.
Cout-(take yr pick)Oscar,Hazard,Yaya,Navas altho Im not a fan of YYT
Parker-Like yr idea cheap midf. Kasami is only 0.1 more and you get more value as hes most likely to score(Iknow parker put 1 away!)
Silva-If youve kept him by now then Id keep an eye on his fitness as hes almost back. Im looking to get him in but only when hes proper fit.
My advice this week.
Keep Cout even though you are lpool top heavy(goood fixt)
SHAW out for CRY def and gain a bit of cash
City play 3 games in 6 days during GW’s 13-15 he may take part in that last game and who knows for how long. I say dump Silva now and don’t bother to look his way until week 16, when he might be fit. Then again I did get a CS out of Palace last GW. 😉
Parker got me 10 points last GW lol
Welcome Shotts. I would say that a straight up trade for a Chelsea mid be your best bet. You have no Chelsea coverage and as pathetic as they looked like last night, they are still a necessity in particular when the schedule favors them. When Silva is fit then I think you could bring him in for one of your Liverpool mids, depending on who is doing worse. Remy to Rooney seems a good idea, in particular when they meet up, but for now, Remy is delivering and he allows you to have cash to spend on the rest of your team.
Wow great advice.. Haz or Oscar?
SHOTTS…
Firstly welcome aboard.
Secondly I believe Oscar will return more pointwise over the next 3 Gameweeks as Hazard is a injury prone footballer right now.
My team is linked if you feel I am talking nonsense as many on here think I do
Feel free to look and maybe get some Potty pointers from my Squad?
Potty
Thanks for making me feel so welcome guys…
I’ll be sure to take a look, cheers Potty!
Shotts, Like I said, we are divided on this. 😉
DONT YOU DARE SAY ANYTHING ABOUT HAZARD POTTY! :biggun:
Potty-You actually link your team!?!? Weirdo, its not in fashion to link…. :cuckoo:
agueroooo check your inbox, if its not there send be another e mail banterburyleagues@gmail.com
So polite BENCH! wish everyone was like it ;\
Listen if you asked a 100 of us, you find close to a 50/50 split. Both sides can make great cases for their pick and against the other. I prefer Hazard but not by much.
Hazard has had 3 double digit games in the last 5 and is averaging 11ppg in his last 3 at home. I feel he is the more explosive player and I would rather have him. But if you took Oscar instead, a case could definitely be made also.
I currently have Oscar but I would prefer hazard – Just depends on how much more expensive he is by the time I am ready to get him
what? did smb just say hazard is injury prone? thats funny cos i see gerrard mertesacker aguero rooney
i also saw silva in a lot of teams, its ok to use those players but hazard is injury prone?
throught last season, he did not injure till gw37. i beg to differ
Hazard for me. better player, more creative, more assists, more points.
Hello HAZARD. Good to see you again. Here :beer:
STOP CALLING ME HAZARDDDDDDDDD
anyway i am thinking of changing my username to my fantasy team name
THE LEGENDARY SUCKER
if u see my overall points,u would get it
and can smb tell that banter bury guy to SEND ME THE BLODDY CODE?
Ok SUPER EDEN. Im just pulling your waffle! See what i did there eh? Eh? Im sure bench can sort it. Must be something wrong with his web browser!!!
Anyway HAZARD have you drunk yr beer yet? Its not got truth serum in it dont worry!
am4r77 says:
November 27, 2013 at 4:43 pm
Hey guys any suggestions for my team
Boruc (Henderson)
Terry Dawson Chico (Demel and chambers)
Ramsey Yaya toure Brady (Amalfitano)
Rooney Suarez aguero
Think my forwards are to overpowering and I need to down grade Rooney and get someone like remy/lukaku/giroud then I can upgrade Lallana to hazard/ oscar or is that just stupid as Lallana is on a great run maybe upgrade Dawson or just change him around please help
Sorry for time and date
Play Demel over Chico this GW.
I think the SARs strikeforce is awesome.. But instead you might want to consider Ravel for Amalftano?
Thanks
Any tips for my team this week? 1FT and £0.9m in bank
Mignolet (Boruc)
Coleman Dawson Clyne (Baker Brayford)
Ramsey Hazard Nasri Ravel (Ward-Prowse)
Suarez Aguero Rooney
RickyVanWolfswinkel – Your squad looks good to me,aside from Brayford of course,don’t think he’s kicked a ball yet,team looks fine for this week so maybe carry your FT this week so you have 2FT’s for the hectic December schedule which starts on Tuesday next,it could well be a substantial advantage to have 2FT’s at your disposal,see Mito’s post above..post 18
Find an alternate for Brayford so you can replace one of Dawson/Clyne as both have difficult fixtures.
Do you get another ft after this week on the Tuesday night deadline and then Get another for the Saturday next week or do you just get 1ft next week for tuesday and Saturday might be a stupid question.
am4r77 – Yes,we get 1FT per GW as usual,the GW’s are just shorter for the next while that’s all.
Thanks NIN
Anyone think Walcott will get 60+ mins this week?
DP – Well hello there!! I don’t think he’ll get a start to be honest,might be too early for him,we should know more after the usual Friday squad updates.
Deaddish…
In Pottys World along with Scott Parker I will say Walcott is a must purchase.
He is one player who will give so much to that Arsenal midfield.
So go Wally go.
Potty
Potty – Excellent rank mate well done,you’re hammering out the big scores recently,kudos!!
Cheers for the responses chaps. I am trying to decided whether to use my ft to dump reid for distin or paulinho for walcott
DP – Use your FT wisely mate,the December carnage is upon us,see Mito’s post above mate,post 18.
NIN – Can you have a look at my team and advise please.
On the chopping board is Reid, Wilson, Paulinho and Clyne.
Watchlist players are Distin, Demel/Rat, Vlaar and Walcott.
Did you call chopper bored? A-up DP. Is this your second post? Double DP?
DP – Just had a look there,link your team again mate,i had to go into FPL to find it haha. Anyway,down to business,defence is looking a real worry,your three fit defenders are fine,Reid is out and we don’t know when he’s back,Wilson is kind of pot luck week to week,normally i’d advise shipping Paulihno but you’re one injury/suspension etc away from having just two defenders so i think Reid is a must sell mate,in reality it’s just Morrison backing up your whole squad,ditch Reid in my opinion,with a view to ditching Paulihno next.
DP – Also,squads with poor sub’s or injured players (the latter in your case) could well feel the burn through next month,i think the best move is to fill out and make sure you have options,injuries and players being rested are quite common during December because of the mad schedule,do your best to have as many options as possible mate,i’m off to watch the game now..hopefully a win for United!