Welcome to our weekly Captain’s Picks article. Every week we will look to elucidate potential captains for the forthcoming games and give you our opinions on each, but also analyse their recent form to help make that crucial decision a little easier for you. We will do this by using a new in-play performance index called Kickdex.
Kickdex
Every player has a single Kickdex value that updates every time anything happens on the field of play. This number represents the player’s contribution to their team. E.g. Suarez 32.2 (-2.34%). The second number shows the percentage difference since their last match.
Kickdex is at the cutting edge of sports analytics. Kickdex uses a complex algorithm using a number of advanced mathematical theories. This algorithm is perfect for analyzing team and player form, Kickdex adjusts for the relative strength of fixtures to remove the misconstrued view that form and performances aren’t always directly related to a team’s results and league position. A team or player may perform superbly, but unjustly lose because of a lucky deflection or outside influence.
If you wish to have a closer look at how Kickdex works, or have a look at the Kickdex web application yourself, head on over to:
Suarez v Aguero
Firstly we will compare the two big-hitters of the Barclays Premier League season thus far – namely Luis Suarez and Sergio Aguero, with 9 and 10 goals to their names respectively. Alongside being the league’s top goal scorer, Aguero has also provided 8 assists, with Suarez providing 4. It’s worth noting that Suarez only returned to action this season in GW6, by which time Aguero had already 3 goals and 2 assists to his name.
Although scoring a goal and providing an assist in the Merseyside derby this past weekend, we see the leading Kickdex performer drop by -2.34%, in comparison the rampant defeat of Tottenham by Manchester City, and the 2 goals and assist delivered by Aguero meant an increase of +10.4% for the Argentinian.
Suarez faces Hull away this coming Sunday and with Liverpool having the top Kickdex performance value you’d expect the in-form Uruguayan to extend his run. Liverpool have shown great consistency this season in terms of performance, likewise Hull have also been rather consistent, yet at a much lower level to the aforementioned Liverpool. Interestingly the only player who could offer some threat to Liverpool is Tom Huddlestone (20.17, +0.28%) who ranks closely with Glen Johnson (20.03, -0.76%) in terms of Kickdex value.
Aguero faces Swansea at home. City have been a different team when playing at the Etihad this season in comparison to their away games, evident in Aguero scoring double the amount of goals in home fixtures as opposed to away. Had we seen this fixture 3 or 4 game-weeks ago we could have been in for a much closer game, but looking at recent form and the trend of home performances by City it’s hard to ignore Aguero’s chances.
Lukaku v Benteke
Our next comparison will be between Romelu Lukaku and Christian Benteke, the ‘battle of the Belgians’ if you like. Both have struggled to replicate their form anywhere near to that of the end of the 2012/13 season. Benteke got off to a good start with 4 goals in 4 games and with these goals being against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool & Newcastle many thought the fixture-proof Belgian was back, but due to injury he was side-lined and has been unable to score since. Lukaku has had a mixed season thus far, though with 7 goals and 1 assist he’s hardly been a bad option, especially since he’s only played regularly since GW5.
Lukaku scored 2 goals in the Merseyside derby last weekend, which saw his decline in form suddenly take a turn for the better with an increase in Kickdex value of +11.35% from his previous match. Many will be hoping this will be the transformation in to the ‘beast’ that he is nicknamed. Benteke however, has continued to show a decrease in performance since his return from injury, another poor week sees his Kickdex value drop by -3.62%.
Everton host Stoke at home, and the consistency that Everton have shown this season so far will hopefully carry on. An out-of sort’s defensive display from them against Liverpool sees a drop in Kickdex value of -0.76%, regardless they still stand 4th in terms of overall performance this season. Stoke enter this fixture on the back of 3 good results, with an increase in performance from last week of +2.25%.
If Benteke could ask for a fixture to turn his season around, it couldn’t be any other than bottom of the table Sunderland. Going in to this match Villa have finally slowed their decline and although struggling to increase their performance value, a drop of only -1.75% could be the start of a U-turn where they hope to gather some momentum going in to the Christmas period. Sunderland have further dropped in value with a change of -4.68% since last week and worryingly for them they have a few tough games ahead.
Summary
Despite the criticisms of Liverpool lately, it seems that their form is quite consistent. For this reason giving Luis Suarez the captain’s armband remains a popular choice. Given the advantages of having the player with the highest Kickdex value playing for the team with the highest Kickdex value, it is quite predictable that Suarez will be amongst one of the top scoring players in the coming weeks.
Given the current high profile debate with regard to Sergio Aguero and Manchester City’s home performances of late, it is also a favourable option to choose the Argentinian. It is important however to consider the form of Swansea, and although out of form at present, last weekend’s win against Fulham could just ignite their season, nevertheless City remain overwhelming favourites.
Similarly, the form of Aston Villa will be worrying to Christian Benteke owners. However, with the return of teammates Andreas Weimann and Gabriel Agbonlahor we could well be about to see a fully fit Benteke get the support he needs, such support allowed him end last season, and start the current one so brilliantly. With a more than favourable fixture against Sunderland it could be the right time.
In the face of criticism from many fantasy football owners, Romelu Lukaku responded last weekend in a number of ways, making a big impact on the Merseyside derby. Stoke may struggle to contain ‘the beast’ and with the best minutes per goal ratio in Premier League history, rightly so. Everton have struggled of late but their consistent form throughout is a solid base for their attack which has now silenced many critics.
Worthy mentions that should be considered although not included in this article are: Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Olivier Giroud, Loic Remy, Eden Hazard, Steven Gerrard, and Adam Lallana.
Following our analysis of our 4 Captain’s Picks for GW13 we would love to hear your views below on which you are going for and why. Will it be any of our 4 or someone different? Don’t forget to cast your vote on our Captain’s Poll below.
Good luck to you all this gameweek, flingy (Sean).
[polldaddy poll=7596978]
So, do we feel RVPs injuries make Rooney more or less attractive in fpl terms?
Given we couldn’t care less if his team wins, just how many points he grabs us…
james
I’ve just taken note of his recent stats and the performances when I’ve seen him and I think he is gonna score big over the Christmas period so I brought him in last week, captained him against Cardiff and he has already paid for himself.
james
To add to above, Rooney has crossed two beauties tonight incase you are not watching.
Thats top stuff!!
@Gallant
Thanks. I’ve not seen the results.
Agree he’s becoming a preferred 3rd to the obvious Suarez / aguero pairing.
Hoping it’ll work out for us both mate. I picked him up last week too.
Cheers for the feedback guys, I appreciate it. I hope it has helped you in some way or another, if you have any requests (related) please let one of the team know.
I’m still having trouble deciding between Aguero and Suarez myself!
Flingy. Im not sure you had seen the debate on ‘name changes’ last night. You came up as FLICKY. Quite like that! There were some others too cant remember which….
flingy
Excellent write up but we need a one word answer from you
I try and keep it as open-ended as possibly bud, mainly because I don’t want people to follow the choice and for it to blow up in my face, but also because I don’t have a clue myself most of the time!
flingy
At least you are honest! I was kidding of course, any extra help is great but ultimately it comes down to the individual and their personal feeling on the day!
You did a top job.
Indeed GP, and on any weekend it doesn’t matter how many stats we look at, anything can happen! Just hoping to give some people a few ideas to think about. Listen to Potty if you fancy a one-word summary, pretty sure he’s gone against the grain this weekend and chose Kasami! *awaits Potty’s response*
Flingy
Who?
The answer to your question GALLOW, clearly has to be SLUTDROP!
I wish i had brought in Flanagan this week rather than Collins. Oh well, stupid early transfer, regretting a bit now.
This is not a joke ,bbc sport commentary says that aguero was subbed at half time due to an injury!!!!! >.<
Peaky- its not true. its because city are racists
by Samir Nasri following a fast break.
45:00 Second Half begins Manchester City 1, Viktoria Plzen 1.
45:00 Substitution Substitution
Substitution, Manchester City. Jesús Navas replaces Sergio Agüero because of an injury.
45:00 +1:08 Half time Half Time
First Half ends, Manchester City 1, Viktoria Plzen 1.
peaky
I noticed that too when I was doing my pre-second half sweep of the games.
Watch the hysteria begin now!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I might be saving my Ozil,Rooney out for Aguero,Walcott in transfers till Friday press conferences!!!
Hehe, this is the best possible that could have happened for me anyways. Have Negredo and no Aguero! :big-lol:
peaky – Yeah I’d hold on that one mate!
PVR – if Aguero is out for a period – Negredo will become his fantasy number one replacement for those with Suarez and/or Rooney.
Substitution, Manchester City. Jesús Navas replaces Sergio Agüero because of a racist element in Man City. Aguero was quoted as saying ‘Is it cos I is black?’
You better hope your right… otherwise you and all the other Kun owners are in the brown stuff. 😉
er….he’s not?!?!?!? Checked Man city Twitter and theres no clues,it is odd they subbed him at halftime at 1-1!! Soooooo glad I waited till midweek games before transferring!!
Why is it odd? They have already qualified, why risk injury to your best player?
Its odd cause it was just after halftime, not at halftime. Why would you take a player off 30 seconds into the second half, and not at Halftime….
Why play him at all then??????
Thats my thoughts exactly, why the hell was he played 😕
none of you are watching the games are u?
I’m watching the united game…
agueros fine. unless he had a halftime prolapse…. :chill:
The Guardian is reporting an injury too. And just like that everyone captains Suarez
Love all the very in depth data however knowing a very devout city fan he made out that city always struggle with Swansea. And looking at the previous 3 results against each other they were 0-0, 1-0 to city at home and 1-0 to Swansea at home. But I personally will be finding funds for Aguero in this week but probably wont captain him. However if you look to the game before city won 4-0 the man himsel came off the bench. Assisted silva and scored 2 in a pretty unforgettable game. Just saying!!!
Iron
Hold that thought . . . .
Holding…. till Friday ofc (“,)