Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13
Welcome to Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13.
Three Liars and a Geordie
You know when something starts off by seeming like a good idea, you commit to it and then you quickly realise that it’s got disaster written all over it but you’re already neck deep… We’ll be honest with you, that was sort of how we felt this week when we decided to split the captain article down and let four of our writers all have a stab at telling us who they are probably going to pick and then justify it. And then all four decided that they were going to write about Jamie Vardy…
Anyway, short straws drawn and three of them were sent away to come up with an alternative, so basically what you have below is one genuine pick and three others pretending who they would captain if they still somehow didn’t own the lovable little rascal.
Jamie Vardy – (A) vs Brighton (Rosco)
(Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Having just returned from St James’ Park, where I witnessed a battling Newcastle grab an unexpected win against Bournemouth, it was with much trepidation that I sat down, celebratory beer in hand to take in Leicester v Arsenal. Tammy Abraham (the most captained player in Gameweek 12) had laid down the gauntlet with a respectable eight points earlier in the day and, as the match headed towards the last 20 minutes, to say I was a little nervous would be an understatement. Then it happened. The inevitable. Vardy (my captain) scored. I celebrated the goal with almost as much gusto as I’d done back at St James’, the dogs both sh!t themselves and the Mrs muttered a vaguely sarcastic ‘suppose you’ll be happy now, I hate him’. Well, Mrs Rosco may hate Jamie Vardy, but I certainly do not. He followed his 68th-minute goal with an assist seven minutes later – a tidy 24pts from my captain. Happy days.
It’d been some week for Jamie Vardy. Eleven goals in 12 games and, by his own admission, ‘is in the form of his life’. That form has seen his odds to become PFA Player of the Year slashed from 100/1 to just 10/1 and it’s no surprise when you look at what he has achieved thus far this season. Across Europe’s top five leagues, no player, who has scored five or more goals, has a better conversion rate than Vardy (44%).
I touched on Vardy making a laughing stock of xG data back in my Gameweek 12 captain’s article, I want to elaborate on it briefly if only to add further credence to his appeal. For those of you not au fait with xG, there’s a brief explanation taken from Optasports.com at the end of this lengthy diatribe. In his 12 games this season, Vardy has an xG of 4.75, what that means is that based on data (see below), he should have scored around five goals. He has 11. Vardy is what xG enthusiasts – I’m not one of them – would call ‘overachieving’: the rest of us normal folk call it ‘in-form’. If you look at goal attempts (for forwards) this season, you would have to go all the way to 13th spot to find Vardy (25). He has had just 12 ‘big chances’ this season, of which 11 have been put away. The man is lethal.
Brighton have fairly decent defensive stats at the Amex this season, but they will have to face Vardy and his Leicester teammates without Captain Lewis Dunk, who picked up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in GW12. Not ideal. The Vardy party is not yet over, so I think I’ll head to the bar, grab another beer and stick around a while longer.
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.
Raheem Sterling – (H) vs Chelsea (Init)
(Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Stupid straws. Yep, I’ll readily admit that I have Vardy and will almost certainly captain him this week, but if I didn’t I think I’d be happy enough to go chasing a Pep backlash, for a few good reasons. The first is indeed to do with how City react after a defeat. Now, granted, the sample size for this isn’t huge but in the recent past they have reacted to a Wolves defeat by then sticking two and five past Palace and Atalanta respectively and a Norwich defeat saw them lash out at Shakhtar and Watford with three and five. In fact even a draw seems to anger Pep somewhat as Bournemouth and Brighton got three and four after City drew with Spurs. Even if you look at last season, they reacted to defeats by Newcastle in the league and Spurs in the Champions League by scoring three, two and three, four. You have to go back almost 12 months to last Christmas to find back to back defeats and they then won eight on the bounce, scoring 33 in the process!
Pep’s mood isn’t the only factor here though, we need to look at the home and away stats of both teams and the player himself, of course. Let’s begin by saying that City like a home goal and Chelsea are fond of conceding them on the road. City have the most home goals with 19 in six games, Chelsea have conceded 12 away in six, the 17th worst in the league. 3-2 to City anyone then?
As for Sterling himself, he does somewhat let the whole argument down a bit! Raheem has 67 FPL points in total but only 23 of those are at home. He’s scored seven (league) goals and only two of those were at the Etihad. The player has just the one assist and you know what I’m going to say next. You get the gist.
So this one points more to City performing, Chelsea conceding and simply hoping that Raheem is as fired up as Pep this weekend which, all things considered, he certainly seems like he may be!
Pierre- Emerick Aubameyang – (H) Southampton (Cookie)
(Photo credit LINDSEY PARNABY/AFP via Getty Images)
Vardy will in all likelihood top most capo polls this week, folk love momentum and the modern day Steptoe has huge momentum right now. People will be scared of NOT captaining him, which is understandable given his form. That momentum gained huge ground after his hat-trick in the demolition of Southampton. However, most FPL ‘officiandos’ will tell you that Vardy’s form and conversion rate cannot be sustained and this is why I bring you an alternative. A viable alternative. Not a weekly default choice of a Salah, Sterling, Mane or Aguero, but Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. PEA and his Arsenal buddies host the aforementioned Saints this week at the Emirates and the Gunners are on a poor run – no wins in four has left the manager allegedly facing the boot if things don’t improve sharpish.
Now it doesn’t really matter to us Auba captainers if Arsenal win or lose. Personally I hope they lose and continue the entertainment. However, what Arsenal do is score goals and they have scored in every home league match this season. And as for the Saints, well they concede. For fun. They haven’t kept a clean sheet since GW5 and have already conceded 29 goals this season. Auba will have a field day and has himself scored eight goals so far this term and he still has to play Southampton! While I’m not predicting another 9-0, I’m predicting goals, likely at both ends, with Auba being involved and will, in my opinion, be closer to Vardy at the top of the scoring charts come the end of the weekend.
Don’t be a sheep, grow a pair and go with the sensible choice, the choice that you know makes sense.
Sadio Mane – (A) vs Crystal Palace (Swirly)
As you know from my usual articles, I love to delve into the statistics and use them for my reasoning. This is no different from that tradition! Sadio Mane has so far scored seven and set up four this season, helping to amass 83 points. That’s already not far off his totals for the 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2017/18 campaigns and a third of the way towards what he managed last year. Funnily enough, we’re a third of the way through this season too!
Looking ahead to this fixture, we remember Crystal Palace were a thorn in the side of Liverpool’s for a few years as, between May 2014 and April 2017, the Reds won three, drew one and lost four. That included the 3-3 draw where Brendan Rodgers’ squad gave away a 3-0 lead and when Jurgen Klopp endured a 2-1 loss just one month into his tenure.
Things are a lot brighter for the Merseysiders nowadays, as they have won five out of five against the Eagles in all competitions since that awkward time – netting 11 in the process. Sadio Mane has been at the centre of that, having scored seven and assisted two in the 10 times he has faced the South London side. In fact, the Senegalese number 10 has scored in each of the last four meetings. Pretty impressive!
As much as Liverpool have a cushion at the top of the table, they know from last season that they can’t rest on their laurels and will need to add another win to their collection at Selhurst Park. Mane could well be at the centre of that for a fifth consecutive time.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13. This article was written by Cookie, Init, Rosco and Swirly
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Tonight’s highlights from an FPL POV;
KDB with 2 goals and an assist.
John McGinn with another 2 goals.
Wijnaldum with a hat-trick….
And Gnabry with one too, for CL purposes.
Not checked beyond Europe.
I wonder how Gini would do I’m the #10 position for Liverpool if Kop were to try 4-2-3-1?
I’m sure it won’t have gone unnoticed. He’s still always a threat from deeper, that he’s capable of this isn’t really a surprise. He’s a bit of a Tim Cahill, in that he ghosts in suddenly having being previously anonymous.
Still remember he scored 4 goals in a game for NC, only Aguero has done it in recent seasons! So he does have a eye for goal
Your man Aurier scored one for Ivory Coast int he AFCON as well 😉
Ok guys, need some major advice. my team is starting to crock all over the place.
Pope
Robertson / Tomori / dunk / soyuncu
salah / sterling / kdb / cantwell
king / Vardy
button / dendoncker / greenwood / Kelly
Ft x2
itb -1.7m
Robertson, salah and king are flagged, and dunk is suspended. what do I do! !!!!!
Wait and see what the Robbo and Salah news is. King may be your biggest issue if it really is a hammy.
King is expected to miss a couple of weeks, according to an interview he gave on Norwegian tv. Apparently.
cookie, so do you think I should ditch King?
am worried Salah and Robertson wont play either
I’m hearing all 3 are out!
Word on the street is both Robbo and Mo out.
Wow wake up to that Spurs news. Doubt it’s good for Spurs I’m pretty shocked. I’d be surprised if it’s Jose I think the rumours might be because his PR team are campaigning for it just can’t see Spurs giving him the money
100% agree with you there Smash. Levy will give him something like 50m and raised funds, but he’ll want triple that. Of course, if they gave him the funds I’m sure he’d do well next season though, and be out 2 seasons later.
Plus wages for Jose as well. He pretty much commands to be the best paid manager in the world
Though looking like it’s Jose in now
He demanded a lot of money in Utd as the team is shit! Van gal did and the current manager is spending as well. Spurs have better team and experienced players who are CL finalist and finish top 3 in PL so don’t think Mou would need much money. Although he would like to sort the contract situations there!
Transfer funds over the transfer windows of his contract would have been fundamental in negotiations.
There must be some agreement where one or even both parties have to come-and-go a bit.
Thinking Barnes (Leicester) and Greenwood in for Connolly and Cantwell for free here. Thoughts? I could do Jimenez and Martial in for KDB and Connolly is the other move I’ve been thinking about
Jimenez and Martial much better move. 2 starters in form.
Dyu want to take a city players out just yet? If you do Id do Jimi n Martial. I see more points there
Alternatively you could get in Barnes and Greenwood and wait next week to replace KdB
I don’t really want to take KDB out. I’m just having a problem with my 11th player so I’m a bit torn
Smash, Mo to Sadio.
Looks good, but I’m a little worried bout Salah. Think he’ll sit out Palace. Pressers should tell us. Any reason they need to be done asap?
Nah I can wait for the moves easy enough as doubt Barnes goes up. Just got to remember to do them. On holiday so it’s easy to lose track on what day it is
Smash I would prefer the other move as you already have Sterling as cover, Jimi and Martial looks good and are in form right now! Btw where are you on holiday right now?
Yeah I’m just a tad reluctant about taking KDB out that’s the problem. Also have value tied up in him. I’ve been to India and I’m now in the Maldives
Jose appointed Spurs boss.
Good for the league at least!
Not for spurs fans though. Any fan that say they are happy with that is a liar.
I can hear him moaning about lack of transfers in January already
Not me. I’m happy with this and I’m not a liar.
Yeah I don’t think you can generalise a whole support like that.
Bound to be some in the support who could see that Poch was burning out and a change needed to be made. Looked that way from the outside at least.
A change doesn’t always mean there’s been a failure.
Precisely, I do have to say probably I’m not with the majority of the Spurs fans on whether Poch should be sacked or Jose should be the new manager but I am definitely in the Levy camp. I think Poch was given sufficient time and we were already suffering from 2nd half last season and I think 11 months is reasonable time for him to turn things around. However Poch does look like he has lost the plot with the constant change in tactics and strange decisions. I still hold him in high regards but a change is inevitable and what caught me by surprise is the timing of this and the fact that Levy was willing to pay the compensation fee! Anyway Since José has agreed to takeover I do hope or assume this mean that Levy will back him with funds.
I think it’s a great appointment for Spurs personally not that I agreed with the Poch sacking. Though I can see why Spurs fans will be annoyed as ultimately Jose is a Chelsea man and that’s what he will be known for
Hi coys, not sure if you ever listen to it but Paul Hawksbee of H&J fame is a Spurs season ticket holder and probably the only sane person on Talksport. He gave probably the most measured and interesting reaction to it all today, that I’ve heard anyway. It’s on their Podcast now, give it a listen, you’ll enjoy it.
Cheers Init I’ll have a look for it later tonight, once the tears have dried up.
Kdb out for Alli then??
I don’t know how you can make that jump Constantine :big-lol:
Haha. Don’t like not having any player in the opening game GP. Just finding out reasons to have one. :popcorn:
Be patient Constantine and the points will come. You’re doing well if I remember correctly. Don’t ruin it by jumping onto a player you don’t really want (or need).
I feel physically sick.
:jumpy: