Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
Everyone loves an out of position defenfder, especially so when he score two goals. And also keeps a ‘clean sheet’. Unless you don’t own him of course. In which case; everyone hates an out of position defender who….
‘Lundy’, as he’s affectionately known by his admirers (owners), or ‘FFS’, as he’s less afectionately known by his (now) suitors, probably did make or break many a GW. You’re either loving or hating this intro already, depending on which camp you were in. The worst camp to be in though was the one that owned him but benched him. And it’d be a bitter pill to swallow for sure but also leads nicely in to why we do a ‘Fixtures Analysis’ article at all;
Burnley average just 1 goal a game away from home, and concede almost twice as many as that on their travels. If you owned Lundy and didn’t play him in this one then when exactly where you planning to do so? Maybe you had ‘better’ alternatives, we get that, sometimes it happens, but it also leads on to this article nicely as we are going to look at the stats for the fixtures for GW12 and look at some probabilities.
Our usual Fixtures Analysis takes in the next 3 games but given that it is the International Break immediately after this one we thought we would do something a bit different and just look at GW12 in isolation. We are going to take a simple approach and look at which teams have the best match-ups in terms of both attacking and defensive potential for this week.
The subsequent rankings are based upon either goals scored or conceded but only either home or away depending on what is relevant to each team this week.
Who is most likely to score…
Very simple this, which teams have scored the most when they play either home or away.
1. Liverpool vs Man City
Liverpool have scored the most goals (14) of any team playing at home this week. Man City have scored the most goals (15) of any team playing away this week, in fact they rank 1st overall for any team playing either home or away this week and also 1st overall for goals scored with 34.
Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this (league) season and their games average 3.8 goals (for both teams), the 4th highest in the league overall.
We’d like to think that this will equate to a goal-fest and the attacking numbers would certainly suggest so. However… we should note that whilst neither are particularly notorious for their iron clad defences they have both only conceded 5, home and away respectively. Or 1 a game. So it could just as easily be 4-4 as 1-1, just don’t expect any clean sheets.
2. Leicester vs Arsenal
Welcome to Unai Emery’s last game in charge of Arsenal. Perhaps. Leicester are ranked 3rd for most goals scored with 12 at home, they are also the 2nd highest scorers overall now with 27, behind only Man City. If Emery’s stock is waning Brendan’s is simply gathering pace. His record in Scotland may be overlooked somewhat because of the one horse race thing but regardless it still makes for stupendously good reading with a double Treble and going unbeaten in all domestic competitions in the 2016/17 season.
Leicester’s home games average 3 goals per match.
Arsenal have conceded 7 on the road which is about bang average but haven’t kept an away clean sheet since the opening day at Newcastle. In fact their defensive capabilities seem to be declining on a weekly basis. Should they concede early here this one could easily get away from them very quickly. Should they score first… this one could easily get away from them very quickly.
3. Spurs vs Sheffield United
Put this fixture in front of most fantasy players back in July and they would have earmarked it as one for at least double Spurs attacking coverage and almost a shoe-in for the armband to land on one of them, probably Kane. And indeed Spurs are ranked 5th for goals scored (10) this week.
But this may be a precautionary tale as much as anything, because sometimes statistics only tell you half a tale. The other half of the tale is that Sheffield United are ranked joint 1st for least goals conceded away from home with just 4 past them so far. This could be a tight affair.
Who is most likely to concede…
Again, very simple this, which teams face the ‘worst’ defences in terms of goals conceded, either away or home, respectively. Or if you like, which teams are most likely to concede.
1. Southampton vs Everton
We begin with an anomaly. Or is it? Southampton sit first in terms of goals conceded at home but this is of course mainly due to the Leicester rinsing. Do we put that down to a one off or do we simply include it as a statistic, given that it actually happened?
For the record they have conceded 19 at home and scored just 4 in 5 games. And their games at home average 4.6 goals each, the 2nd highest in the league.
The fact that they recovered enough to go to Man City and only conceded two probably suggests that wounds have been patched a bit, if not altogether healed.
For their part, Everton have scored just 3 on the road in 5 games. They do however boast the joint 3rd most conceded away from home with 9 against them. There should be goals on offer in this one, if you can bring yourself to buy either a Saints or Everton ‘asset’.
2. Norwich vs Watford
2nd and 1st place for most goals conceded collide here, as Norwich have conceded the 2nd most at home (14) and Watford have conceded the most away (13). A Norwich home game provides the best value for a season ticket holder as they have seen 4.8 goals per game.
This should in theory mean goals galore as Norwich also sit joint 4th for most goals scored at home (10) this season. Watford however have only scored two on their travels. Which rather spoils the argument!
3. Wolves vs Aston Villa
Villa are the 2nd worst away from home in the porous stakes having shipped 11 so far. Wolves however have only scored 7 at home, which is joint 13th in that respect. Villa have managed to score 8 on the road whilst Wolves have conceded the same amount at home. And Wolves have yet another Europa League tie on Thursday, which despite what Nuno proclaims does tend to derail them a touch.
THE TABLES
Like any good school boy, we like to show our ‘workings out’…
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12. This article was written by Inittowinit.
FPL FIXTURE TRACKER
FIXTURE TRACKER LINK
Fantasy Football 247 League Codes:
This is our main public FF247 League, which anyone is welcome to join and can be accessed using the code below;
League Code: ikkny1
The prize pool for this one is £300.
Our Regulars League* for 2019/20 is sponsored by Fanteam The cash prize pool is £500. The first 5 places are paid out in a tiered system.
To enter this one you need to be an active and recognised site member and you need to e-mail us for the league code – elleffcee@gmail.com
*terms and conditions apply and are available upon request. Management reserve the right to review membership of this league on an ongoing basis which is dependent upon regular comment / community activity.
Son did me a con! :scratch_one-s_head:
Need a replacement now. Options are:
1. Son > Dele Alli (SHU/whu/BOU) Starting lately with goals in 2 out of 3; more advanced without Son.
2. Son > Maddison (ARS/bha/EVE/WAT) Showing form lately & Leicester team with momentum.
3. Son > David Silva (liv/CHE/new) currently flagged; important part of City Midfield, started 9 out of 11 GWs
These options are for 3-5-2 formation.
Alternatively I can upgrade Ayew to Lacazette/Rashford/Jimenez by downgrading Son to a low (bench) midfielder. Can then support 3-4-3 formation.
Please help suggest which option looks best for my team. Or if there is anybody else that I may be forgetting.
Option 2
Thank you for confirming what I had on my mind as well!
Option 2 because Maddison seems more nailed on than Silva and in better form than Alli
And as for switching formation, if you’re not taking a hit, then go for it, But youd be stuck on 3-4-3 for a while if u do change formation depending on how much you have for a 5th midfielder.
Maddison for me
done!~
I must admit I like the ides of downgrading Son to get Jimenez.
If it’s a straight swap, then Maddison I think.
Not too sold on Jimenez though! With just one FT I am more inclined to straight Son > Maddison swap
Then go with that then. Good luck.
Didn’t expect Ota to fall to 5.3 so soon
As a result ended up transferring him out before I lost any more on him
0FT and 1.8 itb
Do I do Auba to Vardy for a -4?
Also, assuming all are fit,who would you start ? In the same defender conundrum as I was last week
Who did you buy for Ota? I would have entertained the idea of Ota/Auba –> Vardy/TAA (or Robertson), but since you’ve sold Ota already it’s tough… Of course Pool have City next but it’s just a coincidence, thinking more long-term those moves would have been great imo!
I wouldn’t take a hit just to sell Auba for Vardy
I got in Willems for Ota. With the way things are currently going, my budget defenders seem to be doing the job for me. And Willems seemed to have the best attacking potential among 4.5 defenders. He would be used in rotation with the other 4 defenders at this point
The TAA and Vardy for Ota and Auba would’ve enticed me too. But I feel I can get more value with a 7.9 priced 5th midfielder than TAA. At the moment at least
Doc,
We have a number of games to play this week so I wouldn’t advise doing anything else at least until Friday.
Not sure the -4 is worth it anyway. For free sure.
Thanks guys, yes I’m holding off my next transfer (if there is one) till the end of the week
My thinking was Vardy has amazing stats vs Arsenal especially at home. Even 1 goal from him would make up for the difference
The reasoning behind getting Vardy in now is so that he doesn’t rise in price which would price me out of a move for a better 5th midfielder.
My eventual plan is to switch to 3-5-2 completely
You’ve already made one moved based on money. I’d advise you don’t worry too much about it.
Seems like it’s forcing your transfers and that isn’t usually a good thing.
Au contraire GP, this is my first move based on funds. Haven’t taken a hit this season yet despite price changes.
You said above:
“Didn’t expect Ota to fall to 5.3 so soon
As a result ended up transferring him out before I lost any more on him”
Ah yes,that being my first
Still not for a -4 though
Will be holding on any transfers till after the weeks matches as adviced. Thank You
The drop in Ota (and CHO) caught me by surprise as well. I was expecting to have time this afternoon to make my change before the expected drop tonight
Looks like a lot of people got burned by Otas 1 minute cameo.
Hey peeps.
I had 2ft, did PEA > Vardy
Thinking of Pieters > Soyuncu or Yarmalenko > Traoré or Maddison ??
Cheers
Yarmolenko to Maddison or Tielemans I think.
+1
Well lads. I’m really tempted in doing Sterling to Salah for a few weeks. I think it’s worth the risk but would love to see what people think.
I would wait until gw 13 with that move
+1
Cheers lads. Thanks for the reply.
C.Wilson replacements? Got 0.3 in the bank, my other forwards is Abraham and Vardy.
Thinking Jimenez
He’s probably the only striker with regular returns at that price point.
Alternatively you could switch formation to a 5 man midfield. Got a lot more options there at that price point
Jimenez is a fine pick wafflez.
Got 1ft and 0,3 itb.
Don’t really have any transfers that I want to make but got just enough to do connolly to mousset. Would you do it? He’s probably out of reach pretty soon….
No i wouldn’t, save transfer and get another Liverpool player for gw 13
Much of a muchness those two.
Save transfer.
Save the transfer. He’s going to be bench fodder mostly. Might as well use the funds elsewhere.
Nice team btw. Hope to have my team looking that way in a couple of weeks
Thanks! Can’t hear that enough!