Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
Everyone loves an out of position defenfder, especially so when he score two goals. And also keeps a ‘clean sheet’. Unless you don’t own him of course. In which case; everyone hates an out of position defender who….
‘Lundy’, as he’s affectionately known by his admirers (owners), or ‘FFS’, as he’s less afectionately known by his (now) suitors, probably did make or break many a GW. You’re either loving or hating this intro already, depending on which camp you were in. The worst camp to be in though was the one that owned him but benched him. And it’d be a bitter pill to swallow for sure but also leads nicely in to why we do a ‘Fixtures Analysis’ article at all;
Burnley average just 1 goal a game away from home, and concede almost twice as many as that on their travels. If you owned Lundy and didn’t play him in this one then when exactly where you planning to do so? Maybe you had ‘better’ alternatives, we get that, sometimes it happens, but it also leads on to this article nicely as we are going to look at the stats for the fixtures for GW12 and look at some probabilities.
Our usual Fixtures Analysis takes in the next 3 games but given that it is the International Break immediately after this one we thought we would do something a bit different and just look at GW12 in isolation. We are going to take a simple approach and look at which teams have the best match-ups in terms of both attacking and defensive potential for this week.
The subsequent rankings are based upon either goals scored or conceded but only either home or away depending on what is relevant to each team this week.
Who is most likely to score…
Very simple this, which teams have scored the most when they play either home or away.
1. Liverpool vs Man City
Liverpool have scored the most goals (14) of any team playing at home this week. Man City have scored the most goals (15) of any team playing away this week, in fact they rank 1st overall for any team playing either home or away this week and also 1st overall for goals scored with 34.
Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this (league) season and their games average 3.8 goals (for both teams), the 4th highest in the league overall.
We’d like to think that this will equate to a goal-fest and the attacking numbers would certainly suggest so. However… we should note that whilst neither are particularly notorious for their iron clad defences they have both only conceded 5, home and away respectively. Or 1 a game. So it could just as easily be 4-4 as 1-1, just don’t expect any clean sheets.
2. Leicester vs Arsenal
Welcome to Unai Emery’s last game in charge of Arsenal. Perhaps. Leicester are ranked 3rd for most goals scored with 12 at home, they are also the 2nd highest scorers overall now with 27, behind only Man City. If Emery’s stock is waning Brendan’s is simply gathering pace. His record in Scotland may be overlooked somewhat because of the one horse race thing but regardless it still makes for stupendously good reading with a double Treble and going unbeaten in all domestic competitions in the 2016/17 season.
Leicester’s home games average 3 goals per match.
Arsenal have conceded 7 on the road which is about bang average but haven’t kept an away clean sheet since the opening day at Newcastle. In fact their defensive capabilities seem to be declining on a weekly basis. Should they concede early here this one could easily get away from them very quickly. Should they score first… this one could easily get away from them very quickly.
3. Spurs vs Sheffield United
Put this fixture in front of most fantasy players back in July and they would have earmarked it as one for at least double Spurs attacking coverage and almost a shoe-in for the armband to land on one of them, probably Kane. And indeed Spurs are ranked 5th for goals scored (10) this week.
But this may be a precautionary tale as much as anything, because sometimes statistics only tell you half a tale. The other half of the tale is that Sheffield United are ranked joint 1st for least goals conceded away from home with just 4 past them so far. This could be a tight affair.
Who is most likely to concede…
Again, very simple this, which teams face the ‘worst’ defences in terms of goals conceded, either away or home, respectively. Or if you like, which teams are most likely to concede.
1. Southampton vs Everton
We begin with an anomaly. Or is it? Southampton sit first in terms of goals conceded at home but this is of course mainly due to the Leicester rinsing. Do we put that down to a one off or do we simply include it as a statistic, given that it actually happened?
For the record they have conceded 19 at home and scored just 4 in 5 games. And their games at home average 4.6 goals each, the 2nd highest in the league.
The fact that they recovered enough to go to Man City and only conceded two probably suggests that wounds have been patched a bit, if not altogether healed.
For their part, Everton have scored just 3 on the road in 5 games. They do however boast the joint 3rd most conceded away from home with 9 against them. There should be goals on offer in this one, if you can bring yourself to buy either a Saints or Everton ‘asset’.
2. Norwich vs Watford
2nd and 1st place for most goals conceded collide here, as Norwich have conceded the 2nd most at home (14) and Watford have conceded the most away (13). A Norwich home game provides the best value for a season ticket holder as they have seen 4.8 goals per game.
This should in theory mean goals galore as Norwich also sit joint 4th for most goals scored at home (10) this season. Watford however have only scored two on their travels. Which rather spoils the argument!
3. Wolves vs Aston Villa
Villa are the 2nd worst away from home in the porous stakes having shipped 11 so far. Wolves however have only scored 7 at home, which is joint 13th in that respect. Villa have managed to score 8 on the road whilst Wolves have conceded the same amount at home. And Wolves have yet another Europa League tie on Thursday, which despite what Nuno proclaims does tend to derail them a touch.
THE TABLES
Like any good school boy, we like to show our ‘workings out’…
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12. This article was written by Inittowinit.
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Dear Amigos,
Can anyone think of a clever transfer that could be done to make this team better? I have doubts over Kelly, and I also plan to bring in Henderson in 2 weeks’ time. Apart from that, I hope everyone is raging and having a good time!
oops – here’s the team!!!!
That’s Henderson the goalie!
AJW
I get and agree the Pope to Henderson move. Nice. :yes:
The front three I love and you have great coverage of the big four in midfield ( City/Liverpool/Chelsea and Leicester) :yes:
McTominay down to a cheaper midfielder (Hayden etc) and bank the cash to eventually fund a better replacement for Kelly over the break?
You got great defenders for a 3-4-3 formation. I wouldn’t worry about Kelly, you won’t find anyone better at that price…
Thanks lads. Some thoughts worth considering. I guess I will just let it ride for the moment. Pope to Hendo soon but not this week as Burnley have 3 tasty fixtures. Will keep scouting the up and coming defenders – only one who sticks out is Janmat, but he’s with Watford! 10 foot barge poles come to mind!. Anyway, cheers boys!
If you got 2 FT and don’t want to waste a transfer, then you could think of upgrading Kelly. Else Save the transfer. That’s a great looking team
Thanks Doc. Dunno who Kelly could go to. A Smith would give me double BOU defence and Janmat is a Wasp. Oh well, something will pop up. Also thinking that Kante would look good if he could stay fit (for McTom). See you!
If you don’t want to touch your front 8, then it would have to be Pereira for chilwell and use the extra funds to get Tomori from Chelsea. Bit sideways but gives you 5 playing defenders.
I have been recommended Janmaat and am seriously considering him. However you’ll need a 0.1 or possibly 0.2 to do the Pope -> Henderson move so maybe don’t do anything this week. You’re in the enviable position of being able to burn your FT. Deffo want 2FT for the IB.
Thanks Ben. In fact the 2 transfers fit exactly. Probably only make one this week. Dunno who’s going up in price first out of the 2. Anyway, see you soon!
Tnx for the article Init. Like how you mixed the fixture thing up.
Just noticed Sterling is only one yc away from suspension.
Yep – I like it as well!
Thanks both! Good to do something different from the norm occasionally.
Thank you init!
All,
Any ideas what I should do to get some major green arrows?
Was thinking VVD to Rico to free up some cash or should I be doing something else?
I have 1 FT & 0.1 ITB
If I did Rico I could upgrade Yarm to either Maddison or tielemans for GW13 or even take a hit this week and bring in marital
The way things are I’d go any Leicester midfielder before Martial.
Hit this week for Maddison/tielemans or just do the Rico move?
Neither. Try to save it.
A hit for Martial? You need to lie down for a few minutes!!
I feel a lot better now
Leicester it is!
Hi Mitro. Maybe consider Adam Smith instead of Rico at the same price. He gets the odd attacking return and BOU’s run of 3 clean sheets coincide with Smith’s return from injury (but that may be a coincidence). Although Rico does seem nailed on now, there was a period where he was overlooked for selection. I feel Smith may be more gametime secure.
Barnes or McGinn. Have 5.9 for a midfielder. Not able to scrounge anything from anywhere
Want to get CHO out.
Probably McGinn for me. Although either is fine really.
McGinn on account of his more secured minutes. Get your Leicester cover elsewhere.
Thanks Init and GP!
Evening all:
What’s the general thinking on these points?
1) Perez = worth bringing back in, or would you prefer Tielemans for an extra 0.4m?
2) Going forwards Salah or Sterling?
Thanks guys….
1) Tielemans for sure
2) Mane :laugh2:
1 Tielemans
2 Sterling (with Mane)
Any thoughts on this guys? 1 FT and 0.2m
No rush to do anything this week is there? What were you thinking about?
Pope and CHO are the problems but probably not a rush.
Rico for Guilbert perhaps.
What’s left in total to replace CHO if he leaves?
6.1… tricky price bracket
McGinn or Pérez.