Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
Everyone loves an out of position defenfder, especially so when he score two goals. And also keeps a ‘clean sheet’. Unless you don’t own him of course. In which case; everyone hates an out of position defender who….
‘Lundy’, as he’s affectionately known by his admirers (owners), or ‘FFS’, as he’s less afectionately known by his (now) suitors, probably did make or break many a GW. You’re either loving or hating this intro already, depending on which camp you were in. The worst camp to be in though was the one that owned him but benched him. And it’d be a bitter pill to swallow for sure but also leads nicely in to why we do a ‘Fixtures Analysis’ article at all;
Burnley average just 1 goal a game away from home, and concede almost twice as many as that on their travels. If you owned Lundy and didn’t play him in this one then when exactly where you planning to do so? Maybe you had ‘better’ alternatives, we get that, sometimes it happens, but it also leads on to this article nicely as we are going to look at the stats for the fixtures for GW12 and look at some probabilities.
Our usual Fixtures Analysis takes in the next 3 games but given that it is the International Break immediately after this one we thought we would do something a bit different and just look at GW12 in isolation. We are going to take a simple approach and look at which teams have the best match-ups in terms of both attacking and defensive potential for this week.
The subsequent rankings are based upon either goals scored or conceded but only either home or away depending on what is relevant to each team this week.
Who is most likely to score…
Very simple this, which teams have scored the most when they play either home or away.
1. Liverpool vs Man City
Liverpool have scored the most goals (14) of any team playing at home this week. Man City have scored the most goals (15) of any team playing away this week, in fact they rank 1st overall for any team playing either home or away this week and also 1st overall for goals scored with 34.
Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this (league) season and their games average 3.8 goals (for both teams), the 4th highest in the league overall.
We’d like to think that this will equate to a goal-fest and the attacking numbers would certainly suggest so. However… we should note that whilst neither are particularly notorious for their iron clad defences they have both only conceded 5, home and away respectively. Or 1 a game. So it could just as easily be 4-4 as 1-1, just don’t expect any clean sheets.
2. Leicester vs Arsenal
Welcome to Unai Emery’s last game in charge of Arsenal. Perhaps. Leicester are ranked 3rd for most goals scored with 12 at home, they are also the 2nd highest scorers overall now with 27, behind only Man City. If Emery’s stock is waning Brendan’s is simply gathering pace. His record in Scotland may be overlooked somewhat because of the one horse race thing but regardless it still makes for stupendously good reading with a double Treble and going unbeaten in all domestic competitions in the 2016/17 season.
Leicester’s home games average 3 goals per match.
Arsenal have conceded 7 on the road which is about bang average but haven’t kept an away clean sheet since the opening day at Newcastle. In fact their defensive capabilities seem to be declining on a weekly basis. Should they concede early here this one could easily get away from them very quickly. Should they score first… this one could easily get away from them very quickly.
3. Spurs vs Sheffield United
Put this fixture in front of most fantasy players back in July and they would have earmarked it as one for at least double Spurs attacking coverage and almost a shoe-in for the armband to land on one of them, probably Kane. And indeed Spurs are ranked 5th for goals scored (10) this week.
But this may be a precautionary tale as much as anything, because sometimes statistics only tell you half a tale. The other half of the tale is that Sheffield United are ranked joint 1st for least goals conceded away from home with just 4 past them so far. This could be a tight affair.
Who is most likely to concede…
Again, very simple this, which teams face the ‘worst’ defences in terms of goals conceded, either away or home, respectively. Or if you like, which teams are most likely to concede.
1. Southampton vs Everton
We begin with an anomaly. Or is it? Southampton sit first in terms of goals conceded at home but this is of course mainly due to the Leicester rinsing. Do we put that down to a one off or do we simply include it as a statistic, given that it actually happened?
For the record they have conceded 19 at home and scored just 4 in 5 games. And their games at home average 4.6 goals each, the 2nd highest in the league.
The fact that they recovered enough to go to Man City and only conceded two probably suggests that wounds have been patched a bit, if not altogether healed.
For their part, Everton have scored just 3 on the road in 5 games. They do however boast the joint 3rd most conceded away from home with 9 against them. There should be goals on offer in this one, if you can bring yourself to buy either a Saints or Everton ‘asset’.
2. Norwich vs Watford
2nd and 1st place for most goals conceded collide here, as Norwich have conceded the 2nd most at home (14) and Watford have conceded the most away (13). A Norwich home game provides the best value for a season ticket holder as they have seen 4.8 goals per game.
This should in theory mean goals galore as Norwich also sit joint 4th for most goals scored at home (10) this season. Watford however have only scored two on their travels. Which rather spoils the argument!
3. Wolves vs Aston Villa
Villa are the 2nd worst away from home in the porous stakes having shipped 11 so far. Wolves however have only scored 7 at home, which is joint 13th in that respect. Villa have managed to score 8 on the road whilst Wolves have conceded the same amount at home. And Wolves have yet another Europa League tie on Thursday, which despite what Nuno proclaims does tend to derail them a touch.
THE TABLES
Like any good school boy, we like to show our ‘workings out’…
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12. This article was written by Inittowinit.
FPL FIXTURE TRACKER
FIXTURE TRACKER LINK
Fantasy Football 247 League Codes:
This is our main public FF247 League, which anyone is welcome to join and can be accessed using the code below;
League Code: ikkny1
The prize pool for this one is £300.
Our Regulars League* for 2019/20 is sponsored by Fanteam The cash prize pool is £500. The first 5 places are paid out in a tiered system.
To enter this one you need to be an active and recognised site member and you need to e-mail us for the league code – elleffcee@gmail.com
*terms and conditions apply and are available upon request. Management reserve the right to review membership of this league on an ongoing basis which is dependent upon regular comment / community activity.
Ok so I’ve nailed down why Teemu ‘the Finish GOAT’ Pukki blanks since GW 5.
He scored in gw1 in a Friday kick-off
He scored in gw2 in a 3pm kick off
He scored in gw3 in a 12h30 kick off
He blanked in gw4 in a 3pm kick off
He scored in gw5 in a 5h30 pm kick off
He blanked ever since and only played Saturday 3 pm or Sunday 4h30 pm matches.
So, if you take of the gw2 haul at home to Newcastle he has blanked in all games around that 3/4h30pm schedule AND has scored in all games outside that schedule.
This GW he plays on a Friday! You do the math!
He’s definitely scoring this GW!
Sweet!! :locomotive:
Good news as I am stuck with him and if there are no troubles over the next couple of days in the UCL will save the FT. Let’s hope he pays back for all those blanks
I would, the stats point to goals in that game.
Hope so init. It will be hilarious if he gets a brace after hundreds of thousands got rid of him :mosking:
I am even tempted to involve Cantwell for this game but maybe it’s too much to ask
I’ll be playing Cantwell myself but not sure how you would fit him in yourself.
True, too much of a risk bench someone else.
Hello all.
Anyone got any thoughts on who is the better pick up until xmas – Maddison or Martial?
Thanks.
Martial has a higher ceiling in each game but Leicester are in better form right now as per the B’mouth and Palace games, so, right now, I’d pick Madison (I actually prefer Tielemans but not much in it) over Martial. But you need to keep flexible as things like these tend to change quickly as we know.
Thanks mate, sound logic.
So much food for thought on this site..thanks as always!
I’m thinking ship VVD and CHO for Pulisic and someone like Willems..unless anyone can see something better?
VVD and Alonso to Taa and Tomori. Deal with CHO later. Alonso seems to have lost his place too and Tomori offers better value then what a low key mid in CHO’s spot would.
Well that seems a more measured approach..many thanks! Top Work!
Ooooh 0.1 short for TAA..maybe robertson then?
Your welcome. But you can’t be short of that move. Alonso and TAA represent 12.6 while you can get TAA and Tomori for 12.
would help if I took pulisic off CHO’s spot..LOL!
Ehehe greedy!! :))
Or take robbo if you want pulisic later too….
Team for go 12
Pope
Robertson / Tomori / dunk
Salah / sterling /kdb /dendoncker /cantwell
king/Vardy
button /Kelly / vvd / greenwood
ft x2
itb – 0.1m
was thinking vvd-> Leicester defender and only use 1 transfer this week seeing as it’s international break time.
is that the best transfer to go for? or is it time to ditch dunk
early captain ide is king, but bound to change my mind
VVD to a Leicester defender makes sense. You need to free up cash to improve the fringe players as you have 2 players on your bench who don’t play and then you’ve also got Dendoncker& Cantwell.
King for capo? I’d suggest changing your mind asap!!
Kop. Was thinking Soyuncu, but rival got him last week, not that I think it matters, unless I get Leicester defender of similar price.
do you think it wise carrying over the other transfer to sort out the team after the IB break.
as for captain, early thoughts?
AB, agree with what you say. I still have wildcard, but want to use that at Christmas to get my team ready for the new year.
Don’t worry about who your rival has bought, it’s only November. Soyuncu is great value for money.
Two transfers after the itb would be nice but I’d be tempted to upgrade some of your deadwood.
As for your capo, I’d be looking at Vardy.
Kop,
possible deadwood upgrades?
If I use the other transfer I’d have, at the moment 1.7m to upgrade cantwell or dendoncker, or either greenwood or king
Vvd to someone really cheap like rico or someone like that and upgrade dendoncker or cantwell to someone useful
What do you guys think to these moves. Tempted to do a -4 of Salah/Maupay/greenwood to tielemans/vardy/jiminez. Do these moves sound good? Then maybe gw13 do sterling to mane
I would never tell someone that they should sell salah, but I do kinda like those moves anyway…
I have 1ft and nothing ITB. Does Ota>Rico sound reasonable? I can free up some cash for getting a CHO and/or Cantwell replacement later. I still have my WC but I am trying to hold that in case I need after the next break.
That does sound a decent plan ODT.
Thanks!