FPL Captain Picks For Gameweek 11
City face Liverpool, meaning Erling Haaland loses some of his appeal, providing options elsewhere.
We now have back-to-back game weeks where managers within the community will diverge from one another regarding the armband.
Gabriel Martinelli
The in-form Arsenal winger is my favourite pick for this set of fixtures. Even at the tender age of 21, Martinelli has demonstrated his ability to deliver high-level performances consistently, and against Liverpool, the Brazilian was on fire.
He comes into this match with fantastic form, making the Top 10 for xGI, having seven direct goal contributions (4 goals and three assists).
Only Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden can better his FPL points tally in midfield (55), and at Elland Road, as part of the league’s second-best attack, Martinelli is well-placed to add to his excellent returns.
Leeds are especially susceptible to attacks down their right-hand side, conceding around a quarter of all their chances in this area, and Martinelli will be hoping to take advantage.
The hosts’ poor defensive form has continued this season, and they currently have the fourth-worst xG conceded per 90 data for 2022/23.
Arsenal are given the second-best odds for winning this weekend, and on current form, you would expect them to maintain top spot with another three points.
Martinelli himself is projected to perform: fourth best xPoints combined with a 52 per cent chance of any return. He may not be a differential, but captaining him would be!
Erling Haaland
As I’ve previously mentioned, the Norwegian is not my top pick for this game week due to the difficulty of their game at Anfield.
This has been a top-of-the-table clash in recent seasons, but injuries and poor form have already curtailed the Reds’ title charge.
However, this is still a tough fixture. At home, Liverpool average 1.34xG conceded, although they overperform this slightly, conceding only 1.25 goals against.
Therefore, I believe Haaland’s points may be less than usual. Yes, he may be fully refreshed, having been rested midweek in the Champions League, but Pep Guardiola did confirm the striker was ‘so, so tired’ following the win over Southampton. However, there is no midweek fixture to consider.
In terms of raw numbers: Haaland is ranked sixth for predicted points with a 53 per cent chance of any return, plus 46 per cent for a goal.
Jarrod Bowen
The West Ham frontman has taken a little time to rediscover his stellar form from last season. But in recent matches, it appears that Bowen is almost back on track.
His data is on the rise: averaging four shots in the box with 0.9xGI per 90 and 5.87 expected points since game week eight.
This has coincided with an upturn in form, with the Hammers’ attack rising from one of the worst in the league to Top 5 for xG with lots more high-quality opportunities.
West Ham, therefore, are worth considering this weekend as they take on a poor defensive side in Southampton. The Saints are averaging almost two goals per game against (1.89), sitting 14th for xG conceded per 90.
The data backs Bowen, who has just 5 per cent ownership, with decent predicted points and a 42 per cent chance of a return.
Wilfried Zaha
Palace take on, arguably, the worst defence in the league. No team has conceded more goals (24) – an average of 2.67 per game – than Leicester, and they sit in the bottom three for xGC.
The Eagles have had an indifferent start to the campaign, but they are a far better side with their talisman – Wilfred Zaha – primed for an attacking return.
Palace are 10th for xG, although they are underperforming, and in Leicester, they face a side that seems incapable of keeping a clean sheet.
Current Number One Danny Ward appears to be taking most of the flak, but in truth, the Foxes are struggling all over the pitch.
All of this bodes well for Zaha, who has been clinical this term with a 4.75 FPL point average and 0.8xGI per 90 data.
Only 20 per cent of managers currently own the winger, and any return (42%) could see a sharp rise up the table for those brave enough to back him.
You can read the rest of Ben Dinnery’s article here on 888sport.com
