FPL Captain Picks For Gameweek 15
Erling Haaland or Kevin de Bruyne
These are the sort of fixtures FPL managers dream about as Fulham arrive at The Etihad. The Lilywhites average 1.7 goals against this season, and the City attack is ticking boxes.
However, the captaincy decision presents its own problems with doubts *at the time of writing* on the availability of Erling Haaland.
Now, while I expect the striker to be involved, the extent of his participation will be determined, ultimately, by how he trains over the coming days.
So, looking at the projected data, both players occupy the top two positions for predicted points, with De Bruyne just edging out his teammate.
However, the Premier League’s top goalscorer has a higher 86 per cent chance of any return compared to the Belgian’s 80 per cent.
This game pitches the top flight’s best attack against a Fulham side with the highest xG conceded per 90. City dominates almost every offensive metric, while at home, they average a whopping 2.68xG per 90, a stat only bettered by Arsenal.
In almost every other game week, Haaland would be my one of my top FPL Tips, but given the risk, I’m inclined to back De Bruyne.
Even if passed fit, the striker could have his minutes managed following a fever and concerns over fatigue, while I wouldn’t expect KDB to start against Sevilla midweek, meaning he should be fully refreshed on Saturday.
Gabriel Martinelli or Gabriel Jesus
Arsenal travel to Stamford Bridge, where their London rivals are just beginning to falter under new boss Graham Potter.
Since the departure of Thomas Tuchel, the Blues’ attacking and defensive metrics have remained relatively poor for a team of their stature.
Yes, there have been glimpses of improvements in style. However, the heavy loss to Brighton provided a stark reminder that there is still a long way to go with Chelsea struggling against a high press, an aspect of Arsenal’s game at which they excel, so expect Mikel Arteta to target their vulnerabilities.
Chelsea sits in twelfth for xG conceded since Potter took over, while the hosts may also have to contend with the loss of Kepa to injury, although Edouard Mendy is a more than capable deputy.
Arsenal may not be as prolific on the road, where they have around a 1.17xG per90 difference, but it is still Top 4 for the Premier League, enough to worry the Blues.
Strangely though, the predicted data does not share my optimism, and as such, Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli have relatively low predicted points.
However, data does back this pick, with Jesus the seemingly safer option, despite a seven-game stretch without a goal.
He brings a lot to the Arsenal attack, often turning provider… Jesus has a 36 per cent chance of any return compared to Martinelli’s 30 per cent.
Callum Wilson
The Newcastle striker has featured heavily across most of my articles since returning from injury, and while his ownership is steadily increasing, only 8 per cent of managers have taken the plunge with their fantasy Premier League transfers.
This game week, Wilson should not only be in your teams, but he is a strong shout for the armband.
Since the international break, Wilson has had incredible data with 0.69xG and 0.9xGI per 90. But even more impressive is that he has overperformed these metrics with 0.74 goals and 1.1GI.
This is normal for him and surrounded by high-quality players brimming with confidence; his average FPL return is 6.5 points over this period.
Newcastle show no signs of slowing, and their Top 4 position reflects their fine season to date, with results beginning to match what the data has been telling us throughout.
Overall, the Magpies are ranked fifth for xG, but since the return of Wilson, they have moved up a level to fourth with the second-highest goals return (12).
It is no surprise to see Callum Wilson in sixth place for predicted points – the highest expected return of any player that doesn’t play for Manchester City.
Newcastle take on a Southampton side sitting in the bottom half for defensive performances, a metric they continue to underperform.
The Saints have conceded almost five more goals than they should have, and goalkeeper Bazunu has the joint worst xG prevented data this season.
This is primed for Wilson to continue his push to be included in Gareth Southgate’s World Cup squad.
Harry Kane
Spurs’ attack has been poor throughout the season, but in recent game weeks, they have slipped from sixth to eleventh best in terms of xG.
However, this regression has not affected Harry Kane, who has matched a respectable 0.78xG, although he dips slightly below his 1.1xGI per 90 (0.93).
Ahead of every game, I have a feeling that there is a cap on the skippers’ points due to negative tactics, which is holding Kane back.
But this weekend is too good to overlook, with Tottenham entertaining Liverpool, who have been poor.
The Reds have the second worst xG conceded data, along with the joint worst Big Chances Conceded since game week nine, although a lot will depend on how Jurgen Klopp sets his team.
A midweek Champions League victory over Napoli saw Liverpool revert to a more familiar 4-3-3, and their clean sheet coincided with the return of Ibrahima Konate.
Barring a reaction from his recent muscle injury, the Frenchman should line up alongside Virgil van Dijk.
So, with this in mind, tread carefully because even though the numbers look good – Kane has a 53 per cent chance of returning – the hosts haven’t won against Liverpool at home since 2017.
You can read the rest of Ben Dinnery’s article here on 888sport.com
