FPL Captain Picks For Gameweek 24
We’re approaching the business end of the season, and with so many doubles and potential blanks on the horizon, playing this period well could see huge gains overall.
Bukayo Saka
You may have overlooked the winger for this round of fixtures with a tricky trip to Villa Park lying in wait. Indeed, even the projected data seems to be sleeping on Saka, given his impressive campaign.
The return of Unai Emery to the Premier League has been largely unspectacular, and the Villains occupy 19th place for xG conceded over the last six matches with an average of two goals against per game.
Meanwhile, the team has not progressed in attack, with bottom-half data, giving Villa the third-worst xGD (-5.6) since the restart.
One positive is a slight overperformance on points which places them eleventh, although, in reality, the side is playing like a team in the bottom four.
Aston Villa are not a side to be feared at home, and Bukayo Saka is my favourite pick of the Arsenal assets as he combines set-piece involvement with spot-kick duties and a threat from open play.
Since December, Saka has been a steady performer, averaging 5.86 points per 90 with five-goal involvements.
The predicted data puts him behind teammates Eddie Nketiah and Martin Odegaard for points (5.0) and expected returns (44%), but I believe these are a little on the low side, and I’m happy to take on the compilers.
Erling Haaland
On the surface, this is a dream captaincy pick – the best striker in the Premier League, playing against one of the worst defences. But digging into the numbers, it may not be so clear-cut.
Nottingham Forest sit tenth based on their performances at the City Ground, which has seen only three defeats this season, their last being way back in September.
teve Cooper’s side have overperformed on xG, xG Against and xPoints, buoyed by the backing of their supporters, so it may not be the cakewalk some might expect.
Forest have taken points from Chelsea, Brentford, plus Liverpool, and the side is beginning to look much more settled than the team that lost 6-0 at The Etihad in Gameweek 5.
You can also factor in City’s stuttering start to the post-World Cup schedule that has seen the side lose three times across all competitions.
Pep has changed things up, implementing tactical tweaks that have been causing issues with consistency, prompting many to question the role of Erling Haaland and his impact on team setup.
The Citizens are averaging a goal per game against, much higher than we’re used to seeing. And in attack, their output is down on a five-season average.
But despite this intermittent form, Haaland continues to thrive as his FPL ownership grows. Since the resumption of play in December, the league’s leading goalscorer has had eight goal involvements from eight matches with the highest xGI and shots-in-the-box numbers of all players.
So, the obvious and predictable captaincy consideration in Round 24 has to be Haaland, no matter how boring pinning the armband on him has become.
If you care about your Overall Rank (OR), then the Norwegian is your man. Win together, and lose together, with over 85 per cent of FPL managers trusting the striker to deliver weekly.
Haaland has the highest predicted points of all players, with a massive 77 per cent chance of returning.
You can read the rest of Ben Dinnery’s article here on 888sport.com
