MLS GW18 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer
This week’s article is going to be a bit different. Due to the severity of the change in playing style we’re going to see in the fantasy game, I focused a bit more on how to deal with those changes than I normally would. The fact of the matter is, we’re moving into a phase of the game that isn’t going to give us a slew of DGW’s to anchor our teams. In fact, in the next five rounds, only Columbus and Chicago will have a DGW — but for the most part we’ll be playing a more typical fantasy game with teams playing just once each week.
No longer will we have to worry about which player is the most likely to play 180 minutes, we’ll just have to worry about picking the best players in each round (the way fantasy football was meant to be). That being said, there are a host of other challenges that we have to dance around. So let’s start there.
#1) Avoiding the international players
Ah American soccer – the only league in the world that keeps right playing through the league schedule while some of the best players are called into international duty. Some people find this irritating, and others find it a bit of a quirk. If you’re a fantasy player, you’re definitely not feeling all that quirky about it now, are you?
The MLS site has published a list of players called into their international squads here… Gold Cup It’s highly advisable that you spend a bit of time looking at this list prior to making any transfers. The FMLS game itself is updated as well, but it helps to see the overview of how badly certain teams are going to be hit.
Only one team avoided any call-ups, and that’s the New England Revolution. But aside from that, every team is going to be losing some international-caliber players for the next few rounds. All of the major American players that you would expect are out; Michael Bradley, Jozy Altidore, Omar Gonzalez and a few others are sure to cause some selection headaches. But countries like Panama are causing a concern by taking players like Blas Perez and Jaime Penedo.
Just be aware that there are going to be tactical changes and replacement players in every team to accommodate for this tournament.
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#2) Giovinco stands alone
One of the hardest hit teams for international play is Toronto FC. Toronto are losing five players, that includes the aforementioned Bradley and Altidore, but they are also losing Jonathan Osorio from their starting eleven.
This is a serious dilemma for owners of Giovinco because there really aren’t any other star players for Toronto that teams will have to prepare for. Can Giovinco really be good enough on his own to create his chances and feed the new players getting a starting opportunity? Or will opposing teams simply create a defensive scheme just for Giovinco and dare the rest of the Toronto team to take the shots? The simple answer is that we don’t know yet how well he’s going to do on his own. We do know that Giovinco will now be taking all of the corners and free kicks with Bradley gone, but how will those chances even be created?
There is a silver lining for Giovinco this week, however. Toronto are on the road to LA, and LA are missing Penedo, Gonzalez and Zardes. The tandem of Penedo and Gonzalez is huge loss for LA, and there isn’t a combination available to them that will be nearly as good. So even though Giovinco will be doing everything by himself, at least he’ll be shooting against a defense in a bit of turmoil themselves.
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#3) The Top 10 teams in FMLS
I looked at the Top 10 teams in the FMLS game after this last round – and there are some definite elements to their teams that they have in common.
First of all, their favorite formation was a 3-4-3 (six teams) followed by 3-5-2 (three teams).Only one team used a 4-3-3. And none of the teams used five defenders. So keep that in mind if you’re building your squad.
Here are some other similarities for you:
8 of the 10 teams owned Kei Kamara
7 teams owned Robbie Keane
Every team owned Giovinco
Every team owned either Ciman or Toia from Montreal
8 teams started Stefan Frei
Those were the major common themes of those teams. And that helps to put things in perspective because sometimes we use the ‘teams selected by’ stat incorrectly (and I’m guilty of that too).
When you see that Giovinco is owned by 22% of players in the game, it’s easy to think that you can be one of the 78% that don’t own him and find a differential that will work just as well. But when you look at stats like these it’s clear that 100% of the best teams owning him is more important than 22% of all teams collectively. Try to do what the best teams do, and find your differentials elsewhere.
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#4) Fixing your team’s international and bye week problems
Two teams, Philadelphia and SKC, are on bye weeks this week. And many owners probably do have a few international players to offload right now.
Here are a few picks for fixing those issues.
Sell Cristian Maidana ($9.0 – M) and buy Ethan Finlay ($8.7 – M). Finlay put in a wonderful performance in this last week with a 16 point performance. It’s clear that Finlay is getting himself into the attack more and more as he’s produced 24 points over his last three matches.
Sell Michael Bradley ($10.4 – M), buy Fabian Castillo ($10.4 – M). Castillo has been left off of many squads due to Dallas’ poor run of fixtures that saw them play five straight on the road. But now that Dallas are getting a good run of home games, Castillo is great option for any squad – he has a goal in each of his last two matches.
Sell Alvas Powell ($7.2 – D), buy Jorge Villafana ($6.3 – D). Portland are really using their two wing backs in a more attacking scheme lately. Alvas was always good for a bonus or two, but Villafana is probably the better option going forward due to his skill with set pieces. Plus, you’ll save some money to invest elsewhere. How can that be bad?
Sell Gyasi Zardes ($9.8 – F), buy Fanendo Adi ($9.7 – F). Adi looks to have taken back the mantle of starting forward for the Portland Timbers. Now that Valeri and Will Johnson are back, Portland are seeing the benefit of having Adi up front to hold the ball up instead of having the pacey Urruti outrunning the service into the box. Adi scored twice in his last game, and he looked like he had no plans of slowing down.
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#5) The Captain Picks
The Top Tier: Keane and Giovinco. I’m not going to get off of these picks until they give me a reason to not trust them. I think that Keane is now in great form, and a home game should be all he needs to keep his run going. And Giovinco? I’m hoping that LA’s loss in the defense is going to open up some opportunities for him.
The Differential Picks: Diego Valeri and Javier Morales. Valeri should be getting better minutes now going forward, and even in his hour of play each week he’s still producing. Expect a bigger rise from him. And Javier Morales should come back and try to rectify his poor performance last time out. I don’t own him, but if there was a week in which you’d expect a fireworks performance, it would be this one.
The Ultimate Differential: Fanendo Adi. It’s hard to look past him this week with San Jose coming to town. San Jose without Wondolowski means that Portland will be able to free up a bit more offense than usual.
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MLS GW18 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)
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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/
Many thanks as ever Guy, couple of days to ponder yet but I think I’ve planned well enough. Just off a 3 week ‘WC plan’ that didn’t quite go 100% as planned but it got me up about 90 spots and into the top 100 again so it kind of worked. I put your ‘bookie’ articles to good use in all fairness and actually used that theory a little for the U21’s game to good effect. As you say, they are rarely wrong! Would be interested in applying that to FPL next season. If people don’t know what I’m on about then check out Guy’s blog as per the link above.
I use the lines in FPL too – at least I started to at the end of the year when I figured out that going with their heavy favorites was actually a shrewd move. I think I ended up getting Benteke way before the curve in my work league due to the bookies all of a sudden putting a great deal of faith in Villa’s lines when logic would have said not to touch them.
Hey Guy thanks for the article. Very interesting points on Giovinco but I don’t think I could bear to part with him despite TFC being disadvantaged with international call ups. I will show faith in Keane again for the captaincy I think.
Bringing Adi in for BWP would save me a good lot of money to reinvest elsewhere. I’ll have a think but does that sound like a move to you?
Init – is the bookie lines for betting or fantasy play? I’ll read the article in a bit. On other things just now,
Adi for BWP doesn’t sound like a bad move. NYRB have brought in more strikers now to help with BWP’s form, and really it looks like Grella is getting the bulk of the attack while BWP has been pushed out wide to the left.
The bookie lines are kind of my little trick that I use to confirm my transfers. I’m actually quite shocked that nobody has used this approach before. If I’m looking to pick up a striker and the line on the game is very heavy to stay at a low goal total – I pass on that striker. Twice this year studying where the bookies are making their heavily favored lines has saved me the error of picking up RSL players that have done nothing at all.
I typically put the bookie line analysis on my site the day before the actual games themselves.
I see. Yeah that’s quite a good indicator, I’ll check out your blog on it before this weekend.
Thanks mate.
Have a look GP, it’s fascinating. They’re rarely wrong. Changed my outlook a fair bit I must admit. And that’s from a ‘seasoned’ fantasy player who usually plays off gut feeling or at least from what I’ve seen on highlights. I genuinely used the theory a bit on the 21’s.
So crudely, if the bookies have low goals (I.e. ‘under 1.5 goals’) as their most likely outcome, don’t buy strikers for that game? Maybe even go for a defender should you need one?
That’s the theory. I’d build common sense in there also as well as gut feeling but generally speaking its a great guide.
I will. Nice angle to come at it from.
Thanks guys.
Yeah. I use the theory for games that are the really heavy favorites. I know that betting lines look a bit different in the UK – but in the US, if every line is nearly the same on the over/under at -110 each, I stay away. But if there’s a huge favorite like a -170 to go under and they’re giving +130 to go over, take the under and ditch the strikers.
It’s my little slice of fantasy tactics. And now I’ll probably never get to #1 because I’ve shared my secret…..
Many thanks Guy! Once again producing essential material for any MLS crazies out there. I certainly will take into account all the info you just showered us with. And as always if in doubt I will just make one of the moves you suggested. If it works, I am brilliant if it doesn’t, Guy’s fault. 😉
Not expecting much for Gio in next 2 games but couldn’t find any replacement.
As far as captaincy is concern, I think Kamara/Castillo should be ahead of Gio.
Also planned to drop J. Morales for Benny next week but looking Morales’ set of fixtures, I guess I’ll have to find an alternative plan…
Morning all anyone about just been looking @ early fixtures for top 4 clubs nobody sticks out as having a good early run , any thoughts ?
Silvers
I’ll be honest here and say no not yet. I haven’t got a clue who looks good or not. The site will provide a fixture tracker soon enough and that should help us.
I’ll take one evening out soon to look at the fixtures but it’s been hectic with MLS and the Under 21s recently.
Hey GP just started looking myself , enjoyed the U21 apart from losing access Starting to thk about what players & clubs I what in my team , some good signing are going to make it interesting more attacking options this season.
Arsenal and United’s fixtures looks good to me for attacking returns. Chelsea and United’s fixtures are good for defensive returns. Man City’s GW4-9 are solid and Kun should be fresh by then…
Anyone going to take an early shot at Firminho or Depay?.
Maybe Firmino
Depends on prices. Depay is on my radar. Firmino, not so much.
Depends on prices Ant both could do well Depay looks a class act & if Firm gets the No 10 slot he should do well.
Ant
Encouraged by comments from Giggs about Depay’s ability from set plays. I’m considering him.
Firmino I’ll watch to start with.
I was thinking of Depay.
Ant MU don’t have the easiest of starts but Depay will certainly be on most peoples radars , balance is also key.
Liverpool’s away fixtures are enough to put off anyone. When comparing Coutinho and Firmino side by side in the Copa America, Coutinho looks the better player to the naked eye. It took Coutinho quite a bit to adjust to the EPL, so I find it probably a good idea to hold off on Firmino.
Hey Mito21 Liverpool have 4 home games in first 7 GW all winnable I thk Firm looks stronger than Cout but haven’t seen much of him play.
After the way Liverpool ended the season, I wouldn’t be too confident that they will handle business.
Benteke, if they sign him, and Milner are about the only Liverpool players that appeal to me just now. Those home games are something to look at, but screw defenders no matter where they’re playing.
I won’t even consider Firmino to begin with!
I wouldn’t touch Firmino with Mito’s team never mind my own. I just can’t see him hitting the ground running at all and his performance the other night was woeful! Defo a wait and see one for me that. Depay on the other hand I’m very interested in.