MLS GW18 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer
This week’s article is going to be a bit different. Due to the severity of the change in playing style we’re going to see in the fantasy game, I focused a bit more on how to deal with those changes than I normally would. The fact of the matter is, we’re moving into a phase of the game that isn’t going to give us a slew of DGW’s to anchor our teams. In fact, in the next five rounds, only Columbus and Chicago will have a DGW — but for the most part we’ll be playing a more typical fantasy game with teams playing just once each week.
No longer will we have to worry about which player is the most likely to play 180 minutes, we’ll just have to worry about picking the best players in each round (the way fantasy football was meant to be). That being said, there are a host of other challenges that we have to dance around. So let’s start there.
#1) Avoiding the international players
Ah American soccer – the only league in the world that keeps right playing through the league schedule while some of the best players are called into international duty. Some people find this irritating, and others find it a bit of a quirk. If you’re a fantasy player, you’re definitely not feeling all that quirky about it now, are you?
The MLS site has published a list of players called into their international squads here… Gold Cup It’s highly advisable that you spend a bit of time looking at this list prior to making any transfers. The FMLS game itself is updated as well, but it helps to see the overview of how badly certain teams are going to be hit.
Only one team avoided any call-ups, and that’s the New England Revolution. But aside from that, every team is going to be losing some international-caliber players for the next few rounds. All of the major American players that you would expect are out; Michael Bradley, Jozy Altidore, Omar Gonzalez and a few others are sure to cause some selection headaches. But countries like Panama are causing a concern by taking players like Blas Perez and Jaime Penedo.
Just be aware that there are going to be tactical changes and replacement players in every team to accommodate for this tournament.
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#2) Giovinco stands alone
One of the hardest hit teams for international play is Toronto FC. Toronto are losing five players, that includes the aforementioned Bradley and Altidore, but they are also losing Jonathan Osorio from their starting eleven.
This is a serious dilemma for owners of Giovinco because there really aren’t any other star players for Toronto that teams will have to prepare for. Can Giovinco really be good enough on his own to create his chances and feed the new players getting a starting opportunity? Or will opposing teams simply create a defensive scheme just for Giovinco and dare the rest of the Toronto team to take the shots? The simple answer is that we don’t know yet how well he’s going to do on his own. We do know that Giovinco will now be taking all of the corners and free kicks with Bradley gone, but how will those chances even be created?
There is a silver lining for Giovinco this week, however. Toronto are on the road to LA, and LA are missing Penedo, Gonzalez and Zardes. The tandem of Penedo and Gonzalez is huge loss for LA, and there isn’t a combination available to them that will be nearly as good. So even though Giovinco will be doing everything by himself, at least he’ll be shooting against a defense in a bit of turmoil themselves.
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#3) The Top 10 teams in FMLS
I looked at the Top 10 teams in the FMLS game after this last round – and there are some definite elements to their teams that they have in common.
First of all, their favorite formation was a 3-4-3 (six teams) followed by 3-5-2 (three teams).Only one team used a 4-3-3. And none of the teams used five defenders. So keep that in mind if you’re building your squad.
Here are some other similarities for you:
8 of the 10 teams owned Kei Kamara
7 teams owned Robbie Keane
Every team owned Giovinco
Every team owned either Ciman or Toia from Montreal
8 teams started Stefan Frei
Those were the major common themes of those teams. And that helps to put things in perspective because sometimes we use the ‘teams selected by’ stat incorrectly (and I’m guilty of that too).
When you see that Giovinco is owned by 22% of players in the game, it’s easy to think that you can be one of the 78% that don’t own him and find a differential that will work just as well. But when you look at stats like these it’s clear that 100% of the best teams owning him is more important than 22% of all teams collectively. Try to do what the best teams do, and find your differentials elsewhere.
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#4) Fixing your team’s international and bye week problems
Two teams, Philadelphia and SKC, are on bye weeks this week. And many owners probably do have a few international players to offload right now.
Here are a few picks for fixing those issues.
Sell Cristian Maidana ($9.0 – M) and buy Ethan Finlay ($8.7 – M). Finlay put in a wonderful performance in this last week with a 16 point performance. It’s clear that Finlay is getting himself into the attack more and more as he’s produced 24 points over his last three matches.
Sell Michael Bradley ($10.4 – M), buy Fabian Castillo ($10.4 – M). Castillo has been left off of many squads due to Dallas’ poor run of fixtures that saw them play five straight on the road. But now that Dallas are getting a good run of home games, Castillo is great option for any squad – he has a goal in each of his last two matches.
Sell Alvas Powell ($7.2 – D), buy Jorge Villafana ($6.3 – D). Portland are really using their two wing backs in a more attacking scheme lately. Alvas was always good for a bonus or two, but Villafana is probably the better option going forward due to his skill with set pieces. Plus, you’ll save some money to invest elsewhere. How can that be bad?
Sell Gyasi Zardes ($9.8 – F), buy Fanendo Adi ($9.7 – F). Adi looks to have taken back the mantle of starting forward for the Portland Timbers. Now that Valeri and Will Johnson are back, Portland are seeing the benefit of having Adi up front to hold the ball up instead of having the pacey Urruti outrunning the service into the box. Adi scored twice in his last game, and he looked like he had no plans of slowing down.
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#5) The Captain Picks
The Top Tier: Keane and Giovinco. I’m not going to get off of these picks until they give me a reason to not trust them. I think that Keane is now in great form, and a home game should be all he needs to keep his run going. And Giovinco? I’m hoping that LA’s loss in the defense is going to open up some opportunities for him.
The Differential Picks: Diego Valeri and Javier Morales. Valeri should be getting better minutes now going forward, and even in his hour of play each week he’s still producing. Expect a bigger rise from him. And Javier Morales should come back and try to rectify his poor performance last time out. I don’t own him, but if there was a week in which you’d expect a fireworks performance, it would be this one.
The Ultimate Differential: Fanendo Adi. It’s hard to look past him this week with San Jose coming to town. San Jose without Wondolowski means that Portland will be able to free up a bit more offense than usual.
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MLS GW18 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)
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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/
The 3 promoted teams all have decent fixtures to start with could be some cash to be made there on some of there players , Bour & Wat rotate nicely over first 7 games.
Morning all,
As I’m sure you’re all well aware The Ashes start in just under a week and yes you’ve guessed it we’ll be playing Fantasy Ashes
I’ve created a league on http://ashes.fantasy.ecb.co.uk and the entry code is 121-18
Now I know quite a lot of you will say that you don’t like cricket and you know nothing about it, but this is more than just cricket it’s England v Australia…so all you poms & convicts have no excuse for not entering!
It really doesn’t take much expertise to do well. Tekno is having a terrific T20 tournament despite the fact that he knows less about it than a blind mute person. Of course there is other cases like last season where the cream rose to the top and I performed to levels worthy of my knowledge. 😉
I’m in Kop but I’m not a great follower of the Cricket I here they are hanging a lot on this Ben Stokes fellow although I have gone for Ali Had a quick look though rules are the points bias to the Bowlers or is that me reading it wrong ?
Nice one Silver. It’s probably easier for a bowler to pick up decent points but if a batsman scores a lot of runs quickly he could pick up a lot of points.
If there is one thing that Americans don’t understand – it’s cricket. Maybe playing fantasy would be a good way to learn, huh?
That’s actually a horrible quantifier – there’s an awful we don’t understand. But cricket is the top of that list.
Don’t worry I’m still trying to figure out who the twelve man is
Cricket is a non existing sport here in sweden to, just joined the fantasy leauge just to maybe learn something about the sport
That’s the spirit Wafflez
Guy, it’s been proven around here that people tend to do best in fantasy sports they know nothing about! 😉
I kind of get that feeling. I will definitely look into it. Why not, right?
Aye aye Kop! What are you trying to say. I’ll have you know… Oh no hang on, yeah you’re right
I’ll go join up now.
Great article Guy, cheers mate. I’m tossing between Jorales or Valeri for captain this week. Both have good fixtures and are BP happy, tough call.
Hi NIN, pretty sure I’ll be landing on Keano this week. I’d go Jorales out of your 2 personally.
Hey init, i’ve got Keano too but i’m languishing behind so was thinking of a differential. You fancy RSL to do better than Portland this week then yeah? I was leaning towards Valeri myself..
Not necessarily but I just wonder on Valeri’s minutes. Guy will have a better take on that than me but he still feels like he’s been nurtured back in gently. Then again Jorales didn’t exactly get that many minutes in the DGW for other reasons!
Tell me about it, he was my capo! Poor show. Hmm, i’ll have to ponder some more. The big one should be back now soon too, have to keep an eye out for that price list, should be interesting.
Evening guys
Been working on my transfers tonight. Thinking Ashtone Morgan and BWP for the Timbers boys Vilafana and Adi. Might consider captaining Adi but Keane deserves it.
Hi GP, Adi is tempting and Guy has made a good case for him this week. I’d check this article out too though as the bookies are going for a high scoring game for Colombus and NYRB so I think I’m hanging onto BWP…
http://www.footyfantastic.com/blog/2015/7/2/fmls-gw-18-the-bookies-get-their-say
Hadn’t realised Guy’s article was up.
Got Kamara as well so may leave both in. Could change one defender and roll the other FT.
Hey GP. They sound like good moves to me. Portland have a good schedule ahead. I’m still leaning toward Valeri for this week. One of those 20+ weeks like last season would go down a treat!
Very interesting stuff that. Valeri it is 😉
NIN
My other option was Valeri in for Maidana who is on a blank.
Hopefully he’s good for 90 minutes this week, if so he could do some real damage.
Anyone fancy solving an MLS puzzle?! I’ve got 5.0 to replace Marquez but nobody is jumping out as worthwhile. I could dump BWP for Adi and grab Villafana too I guess but I’m fairly happy with my front 7 as it is for this week. Suggestions on a postcard…
Your front 7 are solid, can’t deny that. As far as replacing Marquez though, the only option I see as viable is Eric Gehrig for Chicago. He’s not going to get you a ton of points on the whole, but he does have a DGW coming up.
Selling BWP could save you some serious money, but if you feel better about him than anybody else, you’re going to have to just resign yourself to a 2-3 point defender instead of Marquez. Personally, I think that Grella is a better option for NYRB right now due to the fact that he’s playing center forward. BWP only has the one goal in his last seven matches and he’s been pushed wide left to allow room for the other forwards up front.
Ultimately, it’s your call and nobody could blame you for taking another chance on BWP.
Lol, thanks Guy – I just came to the exact same conclusion on Gehrig as basically my only main option and also with the same feeling of low points production but with the same caveat and then logged back on here to see this!
As the alternative though – Grella for BWP or Adi for him and make the Villafana move too. Any preference? I’m leaning toward the 2 Portland moves. BWP is hellishly expensive if he’s a winger! And as you say he’s not really producing for the $’s involved.
As a Portlander, I’m pretty partial to the Viallfana / Adi pick. But I can’t hide my bias there. In the Cup match this week, Adi was allowed some rest and came on for 10 minutes at the end to relieve Urruti. So it looks like Adi will be the main man now come Sunday with Urruti going back to his backup role.
Woodberry to Polster/Gehrig. Not really a fan of Timbers’ fixtures. BWP to Villa and Woodberry to Ramos also looks decent on paper
Zizou I went Villa. Grabbed Gehrig instead because of the double ahead but he did ok with 5 that’ll come off the bench. Jumped up to 20 odd overall as a result. Good shout mate. Was on my radar already but good to have it confirmed.
Morning init. Yeah, i’d probably get shot of BWP and bring in either Adi or Grella. Grella would save a mint but he’s the lesser of the two. Could also sell Gio for Castillo as Toronto have no forwards of any use and they play LA away. I’m contemplating taking one more hit to move him on. It’ll be a late decision, that.
Gio stays. Just binned Espi for Kamara. -12 is my fill :shiftyeyes:
Ok cheers all, some good suggestions there. I could always just play Woodberry as it looks like he’ll start but I’m leaning toward replacing BWP and upgrading a defender.
Morning all
My business is done.
Morgan, Maidana and BWP out for Ramsey, Valeri and Adi.
Trying the switcheroo with Peay. Hopefully no 1 point appearance due again. It’s a risk.
Maganto will outscore Adi 😉
Those are fighting words. 😉
Well what a surprize I can’t log in to my Ashes account this is beginning to P___ me off I have tried to re-set pass word but haven’t received re-set instr so I have sent them an e-mail awaiting reply :rant:
There’s definitely a common denominator here 😉
Yes Init it does look like that but I got on fine all day yesterday , today nothing its starting to really irritate me
Alcohol 😉
Silver, I’ve played a number of fantasy games on the that site and I’ve never had any problems.
Hey Kop is my team still there WHITES should I try and re-register the only thing I can think of is that I had finger trouble when I typed in e-mail address I have tried re setting pass word but had no e-mail back
Yeah go ahead, what’s one more account you can’t log in for. 😉
Take that back :biggun:
Yeah you’re still there mate. Let me know if you re-register and I’ll kick your first team out.
I’ll try & re register on Mon away for wknd now so I will have a go then only problem is I cant remember who I picked 😉
Write them down this time, you will need them for your third team tomorrow after you have to register again.