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Promoted Teams Analysis: Norwich

Promoted Teams Analysis: Norwich

Promoted Teams Analysis: Norwich

Looking at Norwich as Fantasy Prospects for the New Season
Norwich City’s promotion to the Premier League almost felt destined to happen as the later weeks of the Championship season came by. The Canaries only lost six fixtures last season and won the most games with 27 victories in the second-tier. They will be a welcome addition to the Premier League next season, and there will be anticipation to see some of their star performers and how they can transition to life in the top flight.

Many will be aware of the qualities that the Canaries have but will also be well aware that they will naturally also be among the favourites to be relegated. However, there is no doubting that they are a proven Championship team, and it will be fascinating to see how they adjust to the Premier League. Their scoring record was impressive, as they netted 93 goals in the Championship last season. However, there will be question marks defensively as they conceded 57 goals last season; which was the worst of all the top three teams in the division. This youthful side will continue to improve, but it will be interesting to see whether they can continue to excel in the face of fierce competition when the stakes are the highest.

How Norwich will likely line up
Daniel Farke has proven to be an inspired managerial appointment by the club, and after overcoming a difficult start to the season, he settled on a 4-2-3-1 formation. The two holding midfielders offered insurance to let their flair players express themselves without worrying too much about their defensive duties. While the back four ahead of Premier League veteran Tim Krul will certainly excite Norwich fans as they are only getting better the more they play. Right-back Max Aarons and central defender Ben Godfrey have been revelations since joining the club and could be potential stars of the season. Club captain Christoph Zimmermann partners Godfrey in the defence and their partnership will be crucial.

The forward areas are where the club excelled last season, and the relationship between Marco Stiepermann behind Teemu Pukki flourished last season. Meanwhile, left-winger Onel Hernandez will be looking for another productive season in terms of assists. New signing Patrick Roberts could take up the right-winger position after Farke consistently rotated players in that area throughout the season.

Difficult Start…
Fantasy players would be quick to notice the difficulty level of the opening five games for the Canaries. In the opening weeks of the season they travel to Liverpool and West Ham United, and also welcome Newcastle United, Chelsea and Manchester City to Carrow Road. According to Compare Your Odds, Norwich are 18/1 to beat Liverpool at Anfield, and this shows how unlikely it is that they will get a positive result against the European champions. That is the highest price for any team on the opening weekend of the season, and as Liverpool look to better their second-place finish last term you wouldn’t expect them to get the win.

The same can be said of their fixtures against Chelsea and Manchester City; with the current champions only having lost once in 2019. However, the Canaries will already be looking forward to their first home game against Newcastle, and this could present them with an excellent chance to get their first win of the season.

Norwich Players To Look At;
Marco Stiepermann – 5.5m

(Photo by Shaun Brooks/Action Plus via Getty Images)

Stiepermann has been vitally important for the Canaries ever since his signing from Bochum for £1.7 million. Last season he played an integral role in assisting the goals for Pukki as he played in the number ten position behind the Finn. In 43 appearances in the Championship last season he scored nine goals and contributed assists to a further eight. The inclusion of the German in the starting line-up ensured that they won 2.77 points per game when he was starting.
His importance was clear for all to see as the club drew the three games in which he didn’t play, while they lost to Leeds United and West Bromwich Albion when he started on the bench. He could be a shrewd choice for a fantasy player as he is only valued at £5.5 million and consistently provides chances for Pukki. Also, he is a guaranteed starter in the Canaries line-up due to his work rate for the team and the club have made no new signings in the number ten position. Yet.

Max Aarons – 4.5m

(Photo by Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images)

The Canaries fans will be breathing a sigh of relief that they have staved off the interest from Manchester United to keep the right-back. The 19-year-old was one of the stars of the season in the Championship last term and scored two goals in his 41 appearances. He also added six assists, which proves he is more than capable of crossing the ball into the strikers. As well as gaining promotion with Norwich, he was also named in the EFL Team of the Season and awarded the Young Player of the Season. He will set fantasy players back a fee of £4.5 million, but he has already been snapped up by 5.7% of players.

If he can seamlessly adjust to life in the Premier League, then there is no reason why he won’t excel and become comparable to last season’s Matt Doherty. Every season there is a 4.5m diamond in the rough, and Max Aarons could certainly be that man. He has all the tools that are needed to be a first-class full-back in the modern game as he is as comfortable attacking as he is in defensive areas. This is shown by the fact that he has had 24 shots on goal in the Championship last season, while he also created 31 chances for teammates. His ability to get up and down and adding width to the Canaries side will be crucial in how they attack against opposing sides in the Premier League. His aerial ability also isn’t bad as he win an average of 0.6 duels in the air per match. As a young player this quality is undoubtedly going to improve in the Premier League.

Teemu Pukki – 6.5m

(Photo by James Baylis – AMA/Getty Images)

The star of the season in the Championship last term was Finland international Teemu Pukki. The expectations for the Finn weren’t exactly high after he arrived on a free transfer from Brondby. However, he defied all expectations to finish the campaign as the league’s top goalscorer with 29 goals. His performances for the Canaries saw him awarded the Championship Player of the Season, as well as being awarded with the club’s official honour.

Whether he will match his goal-scoring from last season remains in doubt, but 7.3% of players have taken a chance on him exceeding all expectations once again. At a price of £6.5 million he could a bit of a gamble considering there are other more proven strikers around the 6.5m mark such as Josh King (6.5m), or Diogo Jota (6.5m). There’s no doubt he has the capability to become a good fantasy pick, but at his price range, it’s probably best to assess Norwich and his performances in the first few game weeks. He’s currently 100/1 to finish the season as the top goalscorer, and if Norwich are to stay up Pukki will need to be the man putting the ball in the back of the net.

Thanks for reading Promoted Teams Analysis – Norwich. This article was written by James Hirlehey

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331 Comments

  1. 73
    hammers says:

    Dont usually condone having Everton defenders but now delph has moved from city, with Everton’s early fixtures, does make him a good OOP for defensive double up with digne?

    • 73.1
      Kralin says:

      Depends on how OOP he is, I suppose. If he’s going on semi-crazed, maraunding runs then he’ll become interesting.

      But I have no idea how OOP he will be. Or even how nailed he will be.

      Everton’s fine defensive showing at the end of last season and their kind fixtures at the start of this make their players, OOP or not, fairly attractive until the season gets down to it.

    • 73.2

      They’ll deploy him as a DM predominantly and initially so probably even less appealing than when at City and actually playing as a genuine LB. Unless as Kralin says the shackles suddenly come off. Probably a wait and see job that one.

  2. 74
    mosc1938 says:

    I have finally decided on a way to start the season. playing a 442. It involves a big-hitter at each position.
    GKs : Ederson & Button
    D : TAA, Robbo, Laporte, Digne & Dunk
    M : Salah, Siggy, Fraser, Zaha & Dendoncker
    F : Jota, King & Calvert-Lewin ( I know there’s no biggy here, but maybe it will work out).
    With the high priced players it will give the option to transfer in any surprises in the early part & possibly give me the big Striker.

    What are your thought & suggestions?

    • 74.1
      Gear says:

      I like it, but just can’t get over that front line. I think you need at least one big hitter up front. You’ll need two transfers if one explodes and you need to get them in.

      • mosc1938 says:

        I keep on thinking about the Striker situation. I can rearrange D & M to accommodate Aguero someway & keep looking for a way to get him in. Still a few more weeks to go. Thx for the input.

        • mosc1938 says:

          Made some adjustments so I can bring a big hitter at the Fwd position.
          Robbo out for Stevens, SHU.
          Fraser out for Stephens. BHA.
          King stays, but allows Aguero & McGoldrick at Fwd.if needed
          Leaves 0.5m itb. Can sub Kane in if needed.
          May not be finished I guess.

      • Kralin says:

        It’s a good point. However I tend, where possible, to roll the transfer going into GW2 so I’ve got 2FT before GW3. That usually does the trick.

        If I don’t have Kane in GW1 then I’ll be sweating a bit but even if I had him I’m not sure I’d captain him over Salah.

    • 74.2
      Kralin says:

      My thoughts are that it’s fine, however:

      With that team you’re pretty much obliged to captain Salah every week. While that’s not the worst thing it doesn’t make the side the most flexible. I’d think about a cheaper 4th defender and possibly demoting Ederson in order to get Sterling in, perhaps. In addition, as you’re playing a 4/4/2 then I’d definitely demote Jota to a 4.5 striker and that should help with cashflow.

      If you don’t want to get rid of Ederson then I’d look at KdB over Zaha, if that’s possible. Or B Silva if you want some money to boost the front line (I’m currently on Wilson rather than King).

      Like you I’m not overly-stressed about not having a big striker in there. I didn’t have Auba at all last season and while Kane and Kun had their moments, other players helped build decent scores. Having said all that, if Kane didn’t have City in the second game I’d be very tempted. I may yet get him in. But for now I’m happy with Salah and Sterling.

  3. 75
    FCHezzy says:

    Morning Team,
    I have picked this up from twitter and it’s quite interesting.

    DID YOU KNOW: If you have rotating Wolves/West Ham defenders you’ll avoid the TOP 6 ALL SEASON!

    GW1: LEI (A) – Wolves
    GW2: BRI (A) – West Ham ⚒
    GW3: BUR (H) – Wolves
    GW4: NOR (H) – West Ham ⚒
    GW5: AVL (A) – West Ham ⚒
    GW6: CRY (A) – Wolves
    GW7: WAT (H) – Wolves
    GW8: CRY (H) – West Ham ⚒
    GW9: SOU (H) – Wolves
    GW10: SHU (H) – West Ham ⚒
    GW11: NEW (H) – West Ham⚒
    GW12: AVL (H) – Wolves
    GW13: BOU (A) – Wolves
    GW14: SHU (H) – Wolves
    GW15: WHU (H) – Wolves
    GW16: BRI (A) – Wolves
    GW17: SOU (A) – West Ham ⚒
    GW18: NOR (A) – Wolves
    GW19: CRY (A) – West Ham ⚒
    GW20: LEI (H) – West Ham ⚒
    GW21: BOU (H) – West Ham ⚒
    GW22: SHU (A) – West Ham ⚒
    GW23: SOU (A) – Wolves
    GW24: LEI (A) – West Ham ⚒
    GW25: BRI (H) – West Ham ⚒
    GW26: LEI (H) – Wolves
    GW27: NOR (H) – Wolves
    GW28: SOU (H) – West Ham ⚒
    GW29: BRI (H) – Wolves
    GW30: WOL (H)- West Ham ⚒
    GW31: BOU (H) – Wolves
    GW32: AVL (A) – Wolves
    GW33: NEW (A) – West Ham ⚒
    GW34: SHU (A) – Wolves
    GW35: NOR (A) – West Ham ⚒
    GW36: BUR (A) – Wolves
    GW37: CRY (H) – Wolves
    GW38: AVL (H) – West Ham ⚒

  4. 76
    Rosco says:

    I’m seeing a lot of comments regarding the merits of having a big hitter up top. So here’s some food for thought; the guy who finished 2nd overall last season played without a premium forward for almost the entirety of last season.

    Argument one: the case for going without (premium forwards)

    I did some research into the top teams at the end of last season and found his team (James Sutton) the most interesting as this was something I was considering doing this season.

    Up until GW20 he didn’t spend more than £6.5m on any of front three players, at this point he was 8th OR. In GW20, he brought in Rashford and in GW27 he brought in Vardy at which point his rank had dipped to 64th (still amazing). He deployed a similar chip strategy as a lot of us and in GW34 he brought in his first premium forward (Aguero) on his Wildcard, at this point he was 3rd OR and eventually finished second.

    The main advantage that he used with this strategy was that he was able to very easily move between premium midfield assets. A good example of this was in GW7 when he took out Hazard for Sterling, he gives Sterling the armband (28pts) and then the following week (GW8) he reversed the transfer and give Hazard the armband (28pts).

    So in conclusion, whilst I’ve always liked to have at least one premium, I do think it’s possible to have a very good season without one.

    However, there is the flip side to the argument which has to be considered and makes things less cut and dried.

    Argument 2: The case for going with (premium forwards)

    One thing that may make this strategy discussed above less effective this season is that we are now down a premium mid option (Hazard).

    In essence, the strategy that was used so effectively last season worked so well because he could get the best captain option most weeks with only a single transfer. With the loss of Hazard, we are now down to Sterling / Salah / Mane as premium midfield captain options (I appreciate that you don’t always have to captain a premium player but it is often prudent given the percentage of those that do) so does this make this approach less enticing? Possibly.

    You may be better served this season to have one Premium forward spot that would be used to rotate in Aguero / Kane / Auba, this would, of course, mean that you forgo Sterling (as Aguero would cover him) which could be painful when he nets a 21 pointer but will this strategy payout over the season? Who knows.

    Personally, I’m still undecided on which strategy I’ll go with this season. Of course, we don’t have to stick to any one formation or strategy, but what I did find very interesting was that even when premium forwards scored well last season, James stuck to his strategy. Aguero scored back to back 17pts in GW25 and GW26 yet James stuck to his strategy when no doubt people without him (Aguero) will have been frantically scrambling to get him in. There’s a lot to be said for patience and a belief in your own ‘plan’.

    Hopefully, that was of interest to some of you, would love to hear your thoughts on this and where your current thinking is with regards to premium assetts.

    • 76.1
      Zed Leppelin says:

      +100

      I think there’s an element of fear (emotion) in feeling the need to have a premium striker, so many players have never played without one so it feels strange, it’s a normal human sentiment, to trust something you’ve had for years… But it’s a numbers game and I think there are a lot of mathematical factors that favor the non-premium striker strategy, if you look at points per million for example or the value of a player the expensive striker are usually low in these, so it’s a very much a viable strategy to go without, this season I am at least starting without one solely because I have never done that before (it is a good strategy and to think I have never done it before suggests that I have always just picked a premium forward out of habit more than logically thinking it through at least during some seasons)

    • 76.2
      Mr Bean says:

      Who did he own to start the season? Assuming Jiminez & Wilson, or he got these in immediately if not.

      I can see the merits in picking them after 4-5 games, see who actually has potential, but its a huge gamble for GW1.

      None of the 6.5 options particularly stand out this year, other than Pukki, considering you can get City/Chelsea defenders for 6.5m.

      • Rosco says:

        I believe (I can check as I have a PDF with a week to week overview and screen shots!!) that it was Mitro and Wilson. It is a gamble but no more than picking midfielders in those brackets really, and obviously you can move to the ones who do fire quite easily if you operate within your structure.

        • Mr Bean says:

          I’m going back to my previously successful game plan this season, 5 premium defenders, which means no need for any budget outfielders.

          Currently triple Pool, with Mendy and Digne, but David Luiz/AWB are options.

      • Zed Leppelin says:

        I’f you go with a premium forward then equally you have to take risks in a form of a 5-6m mid or cheap defenders or the like, the beauty of the 6.5m strikers imo this year is that they allow Salah/Sterling plus 4 premium defenders, or at least 3, and Robertson/TAA/Laporte/Digne and the likes do have one of the best (if not the best) points per million in the game!

    • 76.3

      Well worth a read this Rosco.

      Thanks for sharing mate.

    • 76.4
      Smash says:

      Completely agree. Nothing wrong with Sterling and Salah which means no premium striker. Though think I’ll go Kane and try and cover City differently. Personally I don’t see loads of options for strikers again but think I’m going 4-4-2 this year which will be different for me

      • KI says:

        A fascinating discussion! I think I’m going with Smash’ solution-Kane at 11, and the summer off looks too good to pass. Still, the debate suggest several paths, all of which may work.
        I really like the idea of sticking with a plan; I’ve been guilty of getting panicked by transfer patterns in the past.

        • Zed Leppelin says:

          I have to admit to being guilty of that too, that’s so easy to fall into, you just need to commit to whatever path you take.

    • 76.5
      Mitro says:

      Thanks for sharing rosco.

      I was planning to go with vardy as my premium forward – I appreciate he’s not when you consider the price bracket of kun, Kane etc however the more I think I about my team and fixtures for the first 3/4 GWs it does make sense for me to go with Kane or PEA along with vardy which means I will probably go with 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 until I WC.

      • Rosco says:

        Thanks mate, Vardy is tempting and I’ll more than likely have done Leicester coverage with either him or in the middle. I was pretty locked into the idea of not owning a premium forward but Hazard moving makes it a little less enticing. That said I still think it’s a perfectly viable route if you spend the money wisely elsewhere!

      • Kralin says:

        I’m torn between Vardy and Wilson as my premium. There doesn’t seem a huge amount between them, with Wilson edging it slightly in that he’s likelier to assist. It’s a tough call. I like Vardy and he’s served me well in the past. But Wilson has very good opening fixtures and arguably Bournemouth’s fixtures pan out better than Leicester’s.

    • 76.6
      Kralin says:

      Great post.

      I think we’re in – or rather I’m in – the ‘it’s all getting a bit theoretical’ phase now, in that the game’s been live for a while, there’s still ages to go, many things still to happen, endless tinkering to end up with the side I started with. To show how badly I’m doing, I’m now giving serious consideration to doubling KdB and Sterling in the midfield.

      But this theoretical phase will quickly crumble once the season starts and by GW3 maybe all of us will have a premium striker. We’ll have completely forgotten now.

      Last season we were blessed – unlike the season before, if memory serves – with many cheap strikers. Almost spoilt for choice. That – the choices this season look ok on paper – and the appeal of doubling on Liverpool defenders is probably steering me more than anything else.

  5. 77

    There goes the Chicharito option.

  6. 78
    Kop Warrior says:

    My day feels empty without the cricket & cycling! sad

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