Promoted Teams Analysis – Southampton

Promoted Teams Analysis – Southampton

Welcome to Promoted Teams Analysis – Southampton

The Saints didn’t have a massive fall from grace having risen back to the glory of the Premier League at the first time of asking. They did get stopped at the pearly gates for St Peter to check his guest list though, but Southampton was on the list with Leeds staying out.

We will be looking at a different face in the dugout since last time they were in the Premier League as Hasenhuttl was sacked, Nathan Jones only last three months and Ruben Selles was only good enough for a caretaker job.

Russell Martin was given the full time position before the start of last season and it worked massively. He came in and changed their style of play which proved the difference in the end.

Formation – 5-3-2

Their new style of play is one of possession with inverted full-backs. One of them would push into the midfield while in possession of the ball. Will they get the level of possession that Martin wants in the Premier League this season? Hard to know but I’d hazard a guess that they won’t! I’ll be honest with you all here I’m guessing a bit with the formation. I can’t find an image to depict the lineup and there are a lot of players who I think will start not appearing in preseason yet so going with an educated guess.

McCarthy (GK)

Walker-Peters Bednarek Harwood-Bellis Stephens Manning

Downes Smallbone

Aribo

Mara Armstrong

Goalkeeper and Defenders

Irish youngster Gavin Bazunu (4.5) should be the man between the sticks but he is out until 2025 due to a ruptured Achilles. That means PL veteran Alex McCarthy (4.5) will play in goals. Not fantastic news for the Saints but McCarthy is better at shot stopping than the young man and that will be important in the Prem! Keep an eye on any new keepers coming in but I don’t see that happening to be honest.

The first player that should be looked at is the ex-City youngster, Taylor Harwood-Bellis (4.0) and should be a starter. He spent last season on loan to the Saints and has been made a permanent signing! He was an ever-present once he became available for selection, making 43 appearances for the club. He had 5 attacking returns in the form of 2 goals and 3 assists which does mean he could be a tiny attacking potential player. Only 12 clean sheets in 46 games though so 1 in 3.83 games isn’t great reading.

His partner for most of those 43 games was the infamous, Jan Bednarek (4.0)…. known for a –7 score in a 9-0 loss against Man United where he scored an OG and got a red card!!!

Jack Stephens (4.0) did feature at times but struggled with a leg injury that made him miss three months of the season. When he was available though, Southampton would often play with the three CBs either in a back three or having one of them at full back. A move to a back three could be used this season as it was used in the Championship play-off run so we could end up with 3 starting 4.0 CBs at Southampton! If they can improve on their defense then maybe some bargains here.

Ronnie Edwards and Nathan Wood have arrived along with Charlie Taylor (all 4.0) and could all play CB if Bednarek leaves which has been mentioned.

Southampton’s main problems were their xGC and goals conceded. The playoff winners let in 63 goals, the 11th worst total in the league. It was 14 more than their xGC of 49.

Midfielders

After the resigning of Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes (5.0) is another loanee that Southampton have managed to keep a hold of having signed him permanently. A massive plus as the midfielder was very present in that side making 36 appearances scoring 2 goals and 3 assists. He should keep his place but there are a lot of midfielders who could come in if there is a dip in form.

One such midfielder is the prodigal son, Adam Lallana (5.0). The Premier League winner has returned to where it all began for a potential swansong season. Having made the move to Liverpool a decade ago and winning it all, he took a detour to Brighton before returning. The former Southampton captain will be looking to help his boyhood club stay up this season and I hope he succeeds! I doubt he will be getting many minutes in the middle but his experience and leadership skills will be vital for Martin and the players.

Striker

Probably the most talked about promoted striking option among the X-verse folks and possibly the most enticing option is Adam Armstrong (5.5) should be on pens and can deliver both goals and assists. He played in all 49 games for Southampton last season, so he is nailed to start! He had a brilliant campaign last term too with 24 goals and 13 assists. He could be a steal if he can replicate that form this season. That form saw him win the golden boot and finish 4th in the assists rankings.

With Che Adams having left the club to go to Torino, it leaves a spot open for Mara, Onuachu or Stewart to take. The one who seems most likely out of those three is Ross Stewart at 4.5. He had a good season for Sunderland back in 22/23 grabbing 10 goals and 3 assists in 13 games but last season he spent most of the season injured and only played 3 games. This is a bit of a recurring issue for Stewart so he might be too injury prone for us to actually consider. He has not been with the squad during pre-season due to still coming back from injury but he is expected to get decent minutes up top when he’s fit. If he is only going to be sitting 3rd on your bench though, then maybe you are willing to just bite the bullet.

Southampton had an xG of 79.8 (2nd highest in the Championship) and they scored 87 (3rd highest). So, massively overperforming on the underlying stats. This isn’t great reading and is only made worse when you see that Adams was the second best player for goal involvements and, as mentioned, he’s left the club. Stuart Armstrong was the second best assister and he’s also move on (lately he has been training with Brentford).

Who will replace these numbers – that’s the biggest question Russell Martin has to answer?

My Top Three Picks –

1. Armstrong
2. Harwood-Bellis
3. No one else is jumping out yet

Thanks for reading Promoted Teams Analysis – Southampton. This article was written by Matt X.

Follow @MattyMcveigh

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