Fantasy Football Fix – Price Changes
So, just how accurate are the fantasyfootballfix.com Player Price Changes?
Since we launched Fantasy Football Fix over six weeks ago, we have had a phenomenal response from the Fantasy Premier League community, both on the overall concept of our site and the range of features we provide powered by a mathematical algorithm, however we seem to be getting asked one question more and more…. ‘just how accurate are your player price changes?’.
Those of you that are die hard FPL Managers will know that due to a recent change in the code on the official FPL Site, it has become near on impossible for all of the current FPL fan sites to predict the risers and fallers.
So, what’s the maths behind the Price Changes?
Well, it’s common knowledge that prices changes are related to the number of FPL teams buying and selling a player. With this in mind, let’s define Net Transfers In (NTI) as;
NTI = (transfers in) – (transfers out)
The ‘transfers in’ and ‘transfers out’ information can be obtained from the official FPL site. In previous seasons, another number (called the transfer balance) was available on the FPL site, but has now been removed, which poses two key difficulties;
1. Relating the transfer balance to the NTI
2. Calculating the thresholds for rises and fallers
Last season, the threshold for a price rise was the same for the first, second, and third rise in a Gameweek. This year however, there are increased second and third thresholds, hence why there are fewer prices rises this season. The same applies for price falls.
There is also another key change this season, but we’d like to keep that information to ourselves!
We also have to consider that as the season passes, more and more FPL teams become inactive within the game as people lose interest, and FPL then compensate for this by changing the thresholds.
So, coming back to our first point, the transfer balance previously had some useful things automatically built in. For example, it would reset to zero after a price change, however now that has to be done manually for NTI.
You may have also have heard of the term `protection’ after a player’s status changes from injured to available. What this means is that the players transfer balance was frozen for a certain period, so again this now has to be adjusted manually.
The biggest difficulty however, and a common source of confusion, is that Wildcard transfers do not count towards the transfer balance. If you keep track of the number of price changes during international break, for example, when many Wildcards are played and there are many transfers, there are surprisingly few price changes. The upshot is you have to predict how many of the transfers have been made by Wildcards as these aren’t classified as a ‘transfer’, and won’t count towards increasing a player’s value.
The removal of this information has got all of us FPL nerds scratching our heads as to how we can now accurately forecast when a player will change in value.
So how are we different? Well, our entire site is powered by a unique algorithm which takes a different approach to predicting the FPL Price Change data. Our algorithm takes assumption sets from FPL user groups on the number of Wildcards played, then applies that information over all the FPL Data, allowing us then to accurately forecast how many transfers have been made by Wildcard, and how many haven’t.
Using this mathematical formula, we are currently over 80% accurate with our current projections of risers and fallers, and as we make the final refinements to our algorithm we are now just a few short weeks from being able to brag about having 100% accurate price change information.
So how should you use our Price Change information at the moment? Well, it’s pretty simple, as you need to check the progress bar, and see how close the player is to a change. At the moment our progress bar is around 10% accuracy, so for example, if a player is at 90% there is a chance they might change that evening (2am).
The closer the player is to the 100% mark, the more likely they are to change in value.
Once we have hit 100% accuracy on the price changes, we will be introducing a new range of features to give you Text Message and Email alerts for your player price change notifications, which you can setup for your Squad and Watchlist.
We would like to say a big thanks to everyone in the FPL community for your support so far including fantasyfootball247.co.uk, and all of our users for the great feedback provided.
Be sure to watch out our for a new Assistant Manager feature launching very soon, bringing a new dynamic to FPL Squad Optimisation.
The fantasyfootballfix.com Team
Is it only me, or do other people feel unhappy about FFF requiring you (if I understand this correctly) to upload your team details before you can access the site? I’m not sure why, but I really don’t like that approach!
Obviously it’s up to them how they run their site, which after all is free of charge and sounds brilliant. And I guess I could always just create a new email account and a zombie FPL team to upload to FFF if I really want access to the site without providing my own FPL details. But would that be (1) ethical and (2) worthwhile? What do you other FF247 folks think?
I kinda agree with you gkw. And I have a ghost team that I have uploaded as well. Not too confident in providing email address and password. If it is ethical, well its our choice whether we want to log in or not so they can do it that way if they want to. Looks to be a legit site but these days, you can never be too careful!
Hi, it’s Sam from FFF here. Thank you for your comments, when creating the FFF we wanted to provide a different concept to other FPL sites out there, where out features are bespoke to each persons team, and the only way we could archive this was though importing your FPL upon logging in.
We appreciate not everyone will want to provide their FPL Password, so you are able to login through ID only, however all data you provided is encrypted, and we have carefully chosen our suppliers to offer our users the highest level of security.
Our objective at FFF is to offer you an FPL site with a difference, and uploading your team allows us to give you a different experience.
If you have any concerns over security, you are welcome to contact us at; info@fantasyfoltballfix.com
Thank you Sam. And may we just add that we wouldn’t have teamed up with FFF, or indeed anyone, if we had any doubts re security or authenticity. We understand the concerns and it is only natural to have those concerns, but we have 100% faith in FFF – this is a site that has taken years to build and get right and has our complete backing and seal of approval.
Once again, thanks Sam and FF247. Don’t get me wrong, I trust FFF as much as I trust any website. All I’m saying is how I feel. And having thought about it some more:
I’m not concerned about the security aspects. There aren’t any that matter as far as I’m concerned.
What I think bothers me (and this is a gut feeling more than anything) is loss of control. It’s a bit like with Facebook: I never put secret or embarrassing stuff on it, and I don’t mind them mining my data etc, but I’m annoyed that I can’t edit stuff I’ve written once it’s posted (including stuff posted automatically by apps). So, although it seems harmless, I still have a big hang-up about letting people from one website have my ID and password to another website.
Same here GKW, that’s why I give my team ID instead of my FPL mail and password and it gives them last GW’s team and not the one of this GW. I can live with that though. But problem solved.
Thanks fplopti. And congrats on what (by all accounts) is a great site. Sorry but, I can’t explain why, I just don’t feel comfortable uploading my team like that. As you can see on here, I’m quite happy to upload the link to my team though. So it’s not like I’m hyper-secretive…
gkw.
You asked for other opinions of users so i’ll give mine
I have no problems inputting my email address and password into the site. Why ? Well because at the end of the day if the worst was to happen and that info go accessed and used, then I don’t see much of an impact on my life. Why would anyone want to access my FPL team ? and if they do, they are probably going to do it somehow anyway so good luck to em !
Is it your concerned that it’s your username and password for other sites too ? In which case I’m still happy as they’d then not only have to access the info, but then spend time trying out loads of different sites to see which ones it works in. Chances are slim. Again, if they’re willing to put that much effort in then good luck to them.
I’m not belittling your concerns – as many, many people agree, the concerns are definitely valid. Even myself, I thought twice about giving my username and password and tried to log in the other way.. But then I though what’s the worse that could happen ? The answer is probably someone making transfers on your account and then you have to ask why would anyone want to do that ? and if they do want to, they’ll prob find a way any way.
Yeah, well I sort of like my top 3k ranking and don’t want to jeopardize it. If I was ranked outside the top 50k I probably wouldn’t care as much. >.<
Cheers, kfkc. What I meant was, is it ethical of me to register with them using a zombie team. But I infer from your answer, that you think it is
Haha okay I misunderstood…but shhh..don’t snitch on me!!
Thanks for clarifying about the security measures and I totally understand your innovative approach. It is a different site than others out there so thumbs up for your brilliant efforts. And the work you put behind the scenes is phenomenal. Basically, thank you Sam from FFF and FF247.
Hello people… Happy Friday and that jazz !
I’ve been quite relaxed about the whole costa situation given I have 2FT but i’m starting to fall into blind panic this morning…
People seem to be swapping him for Aguero or Pelle, but I already both of those players !
I don’t fancy risking Sakho this week, and still a little undecided on Berahino’s ability to score every game… I’ve thought Lukaku, Ade and Welbeck… But am considering a punt on Sanchez for Di Maria so maybe not Welbeck… Any thoughts ?
Anyone have any input for Demsie… I’m feeling unloved on a Frideeeeee
Sorry, reply failed, please see 21.
How’s this for this love Demsie? Was back at my folks’ for a few days and saw my dad’s mug and thought of you x
Demsie, Lukaku is an interesting option, one we debated. Historically a bit hit and miss, but a great differential from the usual list if he can deliver with those fixtures.
Morning Demsie, I’m in the same boat as I also already have Aguero and Pelle and I’m not convinced Welbeck is worth 2 FT’s for Costa (one this week and another one next week if Costa is fit) and I have another priorities to sort out (Rodwell, Ferdinand, Rafael…). So, unless José’s presser says Costa will be out for some weeks, I think I’ll keep him at least for another week and will reassess later.
Had I not accidentally fallen asleep last night with my finger hovered over “confirm” I would have sold Costa, and am now glad I didn’t. Like you say unless Jose confirms long term absence I intend on using 2 FT to shore up my squad. Great thing is key southampton and arsenal attack coverage is available at mid price rates. Like others I am not convinced fulffy Welbeck will do anything other than largely disappoint in any case.
@ Fantasy Football Fix
Can’t see Walcott between the Arsenal players yet. Wanted to put him in my watchlist.
Feel like giving just a quick tip on other captains if you own them…Tadic, Lamela, Barkley, Baines, Cazorla!!
sterling and ags out for sanchez and costa thoughts? Yes or no guys?