Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 12
Welcome to Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 12. Some weeks, the Captaincy article feels rather moot, this week is not one of those weeks. For the most part, many of us simply bounce our armband between Liverpool and Manchester City players, sometimes it works (Sterling GW10 – 11pts), sometimes it doesn’t (Sterling GW11 – 1 pt). With the league leaders facing the Champions in GW12, this feels like as good a week as any to step away from the routine. So, read on for who I think will be the players who’ll most likely reward your sense of adventure in GW12.
Tammy Abraham – Palace (H)
A goal and an assist in the 1-2 win over bottom of the table Watford in GW11 takes Tammy to 9 goals for the season, level with Sergio Aguero and second by just a solitary goal to the game’s top point scorer Jamie Vardy. When the season began, many were hesitant to pick a Chelsea forward with uncertainly over who would actually start week-in week-out for the Blues. 11 game-weeks in and there is no doubt who the main man is. A £7.0m starting price was a gift and that gift has kept on giving. Tammy is the fourth highest point scorer (73pts) and is now the highest owned player in the game (47.4% and rising).
This week he faces a Palace side yet to keep a clean sheet away from Selhurst Park, conceding 9 times in their 5 fixtures. The one caveat to Tammy’s allure is that like his team, Tammy performs better away. Chelsea have scored 18 times on the road this season compared to just 7 at Stamford bridge, and of the 9 goals Tammy has scored, Only 2 have come at home.
Jamie Vardy – Arsenal (H)
The Vardy party is well and truly on and doesn’t look like ending any time soon. Another goal in Leicester’s 0-2 win over Palace at the weekend takes Jamie Vardy to the top of the goal scorers table (10), he’s now the highest-scoring player in FPL (80pts) and this week faces an Arsenal side who have kept just a single clean sheet in their 5 fixtures away from the Emirates this season.
After his 24 goals in Leicester’s title-winning season, many feared Vardy was regressing to what they believed was a more realistic representation of his ability with ‘just’ 13 goals in the following season. However, since Brendan Rogers took over at the King Power, Vardy has proved the doubters wrong. Indeed, no other Premier League player has scored more than Vardy (19) in that period. At 32, Vardy shows no signs of slowing down – literally. Match data shows Vardy is now faster than he was in 2015 – yikes. Leicester like to play a fast, aggressive game, that suits Vardy’s style of play and I expect he will continue to prove that xG data means nothing compared to the ability to be in the right place at the right time.
Raúl Jiménez – Villa (H)
It was always going to be difficult to follow up his debut Premier League season, but in recent weeks Raúl Jiménez is once again reminding us that even at £7.2m he should not be ignored. His goal at the weekend means he now has 2 in his last 3 games and this week he faces a Villa a side who have lost 4 of their 5 away fixtures and are yet to keep a clean-sheet. With players like the aforementioned Jamie Vardy stealing the headlines it’s worth a look at the underlying stats to see how Jiménez has performed in recent weeks. Over the last 4 fixtures, Neal Maupay and Jesus are the only forwards to have had more than Jiménez’s 13 goal attempts, and only Roberto Firmino and Marcus Rashford have created more chances than the 6 Jiménez has recorded in the same period. No team has conceded more shots away from home than the Villians (121) and it would be no surprise to see Jiménez add to his goal tally this coming game-week.
Teemu Pukki – Watford (H)
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”
It was all going so well, 6 goals in his first 5 matches, goals against Liverpool and City, Teemu looked the real deal, and then he didn’t. In fairness to Pukki, his regression has more to do with his team’s ability (or lack thereof) not to mention an injury crisis that highlighted their severe lack of strength in depth. Pukki has blanked in his last 6 game-weeks, and despite being sold in droves, he is still owned by a rank damaging 25.5% (those dead teams have a lot to answer for). So why is he here? Well partly to make up the numbers, but mainly due to the opposition, because whilst Norwich are pretty bad, Watford are worse (marginally). A look at the stats shows that only Newcastle (sob) have conceded more than the 13 goals shipped by Watford on their travels this season, the Hornets yet to keep a clean sheet in their 5 fixtures away from Vicarage Road. As the Godfather part 3 quote that serves as the intro to this paragraph suggests, it may be time to head back to the Pukki Party – they have some decent fixtures coming up don’t you know!
Thanks once again for having me, may you be blessed with much greenness of arrows.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 12 This article was written by Rosco.
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Many thanks Rosco. I’m leaning towards Jimenez right now, not sure why, probably just to have a Sunday captain!
I’m Vardy but I may own Jimi come the weekend so that could change!
Yes! Vardy captain crew :drinks:
What do you think of Janmaat for 3 weeks? WAT seem to have secured the defense quite a bit. Will bring in another SHU after that.
Thanks
I like it :good:
Thanks
Wondering what people’s thoughts are on defensive order this week
How would you list these 5 in order of priority?
1) TAA; 2) Robbo 3) Soynuncu; 4) Rico; 5) Lundstram
Or, out another way, it it a risk to bench Lundstram, could he score vs Spurs?
Thanks guys…
Yah, I’m actually playing Lundstram regardless the fixture. I played him ahead of Rico and the Turkish guy.
Needless to say Robo and Taa start.
I also have Tomori but don’t have much faith in their defense.
Thanks Raz, so essentially Lundstram at no. 3?
Yes, at 3.
That’s a tough one. I think you have to play the Liverpool guys in all games. I think Lundstram could score and get a clean sheet against Spurs. In fact anyone could get a goal and a clean sheet against Spurs right now.
I would order it Liverpool/Lundy/Soy/Rico
Thanks Ben.
It’s not an easy choice.
Cheers Rosco! On vardy but may go with Tammy.
All,
Any ideas on what I should do with this lot? Was thinking VVD out and Rico which would allow me to upgrade Yarm or even Mount.
Thanks mate! Upgrade to who? I think downgrading Auba would be my cash cow but VVD needs to be a full back for their upcoming run!
Was thinking Maddison/tielemans for Yarm but Mount being a doubt means I could upgrade him to pulisic?
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Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
By inittowinit on November 3, 2019175 Comments
Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
Everyone loves an out of position defenfder, especially so when he score two goals. And also keeps a ‘clean sheet’. Unless you don’t own him of course. In which case; everyone hates an out of position defender who….
‘Lundy’, as he’s affectionately known by his admirers (owners), or ‘FFS’, as he’s less afectionately known by his (now) suitors, probably did make or break many a GW. You’re either loving or hating this intro already, depending on which camp you were in. The worst camp to be in though was the one that owned him but benched him. And it’d be a bitter pill to swallow for sure but also leads nicely in to why we do a ‘Fixtures Analysis’ article at all;
Burnley average just 1 goal a game away from home, and concede almost twice as many as that on their travels. If you owned Lundy and didn’t play him in this one then when exactly where you planning to do so? Maybe you had ‘better’ alternatives, we get that, sometimes it happens, but it also leads on to this article nicely as we are going to look at the stats for the fixtures for GW12 and look at some probabilities.
Our usual Fixtures Analysis takes in the next 3 games but given that it is the International Break immediately after this one we thought we would do something a bit different and just look at GW12 in isolation. We are going to take a simple approach and look at which teams have the best match-ups in terms of both attacking and defensive potential for this week.
The subsequent rankings are based upon either goals scored or conceded but only either home or away depending on what is relevant to each team this week.
Who is most likely to score…
Very simple this, which teams have scored the most when they play either home or away.
1. Liverpool vs Man City
Liverpool have scored the most goals (14) of any team playing at home this week. Man City have scored the most goals (15) of any team playing away this week, in fact they rank 1st overall for any team playing either home or away this week and also 1st overall for goals scored with 34.
Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this (league) season and their games average 3.8 goals (for both teams), the 4th highest in the league overall.
We’d like to think that this will equate to a goal-fest and the attacking numbers would certainly suggest so. However… we should note that whilst neither are particularly notorious for their iron clad defences they have both only conceded 5, home and away respectively. Or 1 a game. So it could just as easily be 4-4 as 1-1, just don’t expect any clean sheets.
2. Leicester vs Arsenal
Welcome to Unai Emery’s last game in charge of Arsenal. Perhaps. Leicester are ranked 3rd for most goals scored this week with 12 at home, they are also the 2nd highest scorers overall now with 27, behind only Man City. If Emery’s stock is waning Brendan’s is simply gathering pace. His record in Scotland may be overlooked somewhat because of the one horse race thing but regardless it still makes for stupendously good reading with a double Treble and going unbeaten in all domestic competitions in the 2016/17 season.
Leicester’s home games average 3 goals per match.
Arsenal have conceded 7 on the road which is about bang average but haven’t kept an away clean sheet since the opening day at Newcastle. In fact their defensive capabilities seem to be declining on a weekly basis. Should they concede early here this one could easily get away from them very quickly. Should they score first… this one could easily get away from them very quickly.
3. Spurs vs Sheffield United
Put this fixture in front of most fantasy players back in July and they would have earmarked it as one for at least double Spurs attacking coverage and almost a shoe-in for the armband to land on one of them, probably Kane. And indeed Spurs are ranked 5th for goals scored (10) this week.
But this may be a precautionary tale as much as anything, because sometimes statistics only tell you half a tale. The other half of the tale is that Sheffield United are ranked joint 1st for least goals conceded away from home with just 4 past them so far. This could be a tight affair.
Who is most likely to concede…
Again, very simple this, which teams face the ‘worst’ defences in terms of goals conceded, either away or home, respectively. Or if you like, which teams are most likely to concede.
1. Southampton vs Everton
Fantasy Football TipsWe begin with an anomaly. Or is it? Southampton sit first in terms of goals conceded at home but this is of course mainly due to the Leicester rinsing. Do we put that down to a one off or do we simply include it as a statistic, given that it actually happened?
For the record they have conceded 19 at home and scored just 4 in 5 games. And their games at home average 4.6 goals each, the 2nd highest in the league.
The fact that they recovered enough to go to Man City and only conceded two probably suggests that wounds have been patched a bit, if not altogether healed.
For their part, Everton have scored just 3 on the road in 5 games. They do however boast the joint 3rd most conceded away from home with 9 against them. There should be goals on offer in this one, if you can bring yourself to buy either a Saints or Everton ‘asset’.
2. Norwich vs Watford
Fantasy Football Tips2nd and 1st place for most goals conceded collide here, as Norwich have conceded the 2nd most at home (14) and Watford have conceded the most away (13). A Norwich home game provides the best value for a season ticket holder as they have seen 4.8 goals per game.
This should in theory mean goals galore as Norwich also sit joint 4th for most goals scored at home (10) this season. Watford however have only scored two on their travels. Which rather spoils the argument!
3. Wolves vs Aston Villa
iconVilla are the 2nd worst away from home in the porous stakes having shipped 11 so far. Wolves however have only scored 7 at home, which is joint 13th in that respect. Villa have managed to score 8 on the road whilst Wolves have conceded the same amount at home. And Wolves have yet another Europa League tie on Thursday, which despite what Nuno proclaims does tend to derail them a touch.
THE TABLES
Like any good school boy, we like to show our ‘workings out’…
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12. This article was written by Inittowinit.
Follow @AdamalcockFF247
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View league standings – coming soon
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175 Comments
« 1 2 3 4 5 … 7 »
13
DMC
says:
November 4, 2019 at 2:59 pm
Ok so I’ve nailed down why Teemu ‘the Finish GOAT’ Pukki blanks since GW 5.
He scored in gw1 in a Friday kick-off
He scored in gw2 in a 3pm kick off
He scored in gw3 in a 12h30 kick off
He blanked in gw4 in a 3pm kick off
He scored in gw5 in a 5h30 pm kick off
He blanked ever since and only played Saturday 3 pm or Sunday 4h30 pm matches.
So, if you take of the gw2 haul at home to Newcastle he has blanked in all games around that 3/4h30pm schedule AND has scored in all games outside that schedule.
This GW he plays on a Friday! You do the math!
He’s definitely scoring this GW!
REPLY
13.1
Zed Leppelin
says:
November 4, 2019 at 7:51 pm
Sweet!! locomotive
REPLY
13.2
IvanTheTerrible
says:
November 4, 2019 at 9:13 pm
Good news as I am stuck with him and if there are no troubles over the next couple of days in the UCL will save the FT. Let’s hope he pays back for all those blanks smile
REPLY
…
inittowinit
says:
November 4, 2019 at 9:24 pm
I would, the stats point to goals in that game.
REPLY
…
IvanTheTerrible
says:
November 4, 2019 at 9:41 pm
Hope so init. It will be hilarious if he gets a brace after hundreds of thousands got rid of him mosking
…
IvanTheTerrible
says:
November 4, 2019 at 9:44 pm
I am even tempted to involve Cantwell for this game but maybe it’s too much to ask smile
Click on image to enlarge:
…
inittowinit
says:
November 4, 2019 at 9:48 pm
I’ll be playing Cantwell myself but not sure how you would fit him in yourself.
…
IvanTheTerrible
says:
November 4, 2019 at 9:55 pm
True, too much of a risk bench someone else.
14
Special Agent Dale Cooper
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:16 pm
Hello all.
Anyone got any thoughts on who is the better pick up until xmas – Maddison or Martial?
Thanks.
REPLY
14.1
DMC
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:20 pm
Martial has a higher ceiling in each game but Leicester are in better form right now as per the B’mouth and Palace games, so, right now, I’d pick Madison (I actually prefer Tielemans but not much in it) over Martial. But you need to keep flexible as things like these tend to change quickly as we know.
REPLY
…
Special Agent Dale Cooper
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:41 pm
Thanks mate, sound logic.
REPLY
15
tronkid75
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:20 pm
So much food for thought on this site..thanks as always!
I’m thinking ship VVD and CHO for Pulisic and someone like Willems..unless anyone can see something better?
Click on image to enlarge:
REPLY
15.1
DMC
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:23 pm
VVD and Alonso to Taa and Tomori. Deal with CHO later. Alonso seems to have lost his place too and Tomori offers better value then what a low key mid in CHO’s spot would.
REPLY
…
tronkid75
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:35 pm
Well that seems a more measured approach..many thanks! Top Work!
REPLY
…
tronkid75
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:37 pm
Ooooh 0.1 short for TAA..maybe robertson then?
…
DMC
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:41 pm
Your welcome. But you can’t be short of that move. Alonso and TAA represent 12.6 while you can get TAA and Tomori for 12.
…
tronkid75
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:46 pm
would help if I took pulisic off CHO’s spot..LOL!
…
DMC
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:51 pm
Ehehe greedy!! :))
…
AllanBrallan
says:
November 4, 2019 at 3:55 pm
Or take robbo if you want pulisic later too….
REPLY
16
hammerfan_lm
says:
November 4, 2019 at 4:13 pm
Team for go 12
Pope
Robertson / Tomori / dunk
Salah / sterling /kdb /dendoncker /cantwell
king/Vardy
button /Kelly / vvd / greenwood
ft x2
itb – 0.1m
was thinking vvd->Soyuncu and only use 1 transfer this week seeing as it’s international break time. Alternatively I could use the other transfer to upgrade cantwell or dendoncker but to who?
what would people do?
captain idea is Vardy
Great post.
+1 :big-lol:
Sorry, not sure what happened there
Are you hammered? :drinks:
I wish
pope
Robertson / Tomori / dunk
Salah / sterling / kdb / dendoncker / cantwell
king / Vardy
button / Kelly / vvd / greenwood
ft x2
itb – 0.1m
was thinking of doing vvd -》Soyuncu and only use 1 transfer seeing as it’s the international break. Alternatively I can upgrade cantwell or dendoncker with the 1.7m I have left
I will captain Vardy
what are people ‘s thoughts
Hmm with the money from VVD could you get Tielemans?
Raziel, unfortunately I m 0.2m short. I can get Perez though