Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
Everyone loves an out of position defenfder, especially so when he score two goals. And also keeps a ‘clean sheet’. Unless you don’t own him of course. In which case; everyone hates an out of position defender who….
‘Lundy’, as he’s affectionately known by his admirers (owners), or ‘FFS’, as he’s less afectionately known by his (now) suitors, probably did make or break many a GW. You’re either loving or hating this intro already, depending on which camp you were in. The worst camp to be in though was the one that owned him but benched him. And it’d be a bitter pill to swallow for sure but also leads nicely in to why we do a ‘Fixtures Analysis’ article at all;
Burnley average just 1 goal a game away from home, and concede almost twice as many as that on their travels. If you owned Lundy and didn’t play him in this one then when exactly where you planning to do so? Maybe you had ‘better’ alternatives, we get that, sometimes it happens, but it also leads on to this article nicely as we are going to look at the stats for the fixtures for GW12 and look at some probabilities.
Our usual Fixtures Analysis takes in the next 3 games but given that it is the International Break immediately after this one we thought we would do something a bit different and just look at GW12 in isolation. We are going to take a simple approach and look at which teams have the best match-ups in terms of both attacking and defensive potential for this week.
The subsequent rankings are based upon either goals scored or conceded but only either home or away depending on what is relevant to each team this week.
Who is most likely to score…
Very simple this, which teams have scored the most when they play either home or away.
1. Liverpool vs Man City
Liverpool have scored the most goals (14) of any team playing at home this week. Man City have scored the most goals (15) of any team playing away this week, in fact they rank 1st overall for any team playing either home or away this week and also 1st overall for goals scored with 34.
Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this (league) season and their games average 3.8 goals (for both teams), the 4th highest in the league overall.
We’d like to think that this will equate to a goal-fest and the attacking numbers would certainly suggest so. However… we should note that whilst neither are particularly notorious for their iron clad defences they have both only conceded 5, home and away respectively. Or 1 a game. So it could just as easily be 4-4 as 1-1, just don’t expect any clean sheets.
2. Leicester vs Arsenal
Welcome to Unai Emery’s last game in charge of Arsenal. Perhaps. Leicester are ranked 3rd for most goals scored with 12 at home, they are also the 2nd highest scorers overall now with 27, behind only Man City. If Emery’s stock is waning Brendan’s is simply gathering pace. His record in Scotland may be overlooked somewhat because of the one horse race thing but regardless it still makes for stupendously good reading with a double Treble and going unbeaten in all domestic competitions in the 2016/17 season.
Leicester’s home games average 3 goals per match.
Arsenal have conceded 7 on the road which is about bang average but haven’t kept an away clean sheet since the opening day at Newcastle. In fact their defensive capabilities seem to be declining on a weekly basis. Should they concede early here this one could easily get away from them very quickly. Should they score first… this one could easily get away from them very quickly.
3. Spurs vs Sheffield United
Put this fixture in front of most fantasy players back in July and they would have earmarked it as one for at least double Spurs attacking coverage and almost a shoe-in for the armband to land on one of them, probably Kane. And indeed Spurs are ranked 5th for goals scored (10) this week.
But this may be a precautionary tale as much as anything, because sometimes statistics only tell you half a tale. The other half of the tale is that Sheffield United are ranked joint 1st for least goals conceded away from home with just 4 past them so far. This could be a tight affair.
Who is most likely to concede…
Again, very simple this, which teams face the ‘worst’ defences in terms of goals conceded, either away or home, respectively. Or if you like, which teams are most likely to concede.
1. Southampton vs Everton
We begin with an anomaly. Or is it? Southampton sit first in terms of goals conceded at home but this is of course mainly due to the Leicester rinsing. Do we put that down to a one off or do we simply include it as a statistic, given that it actually happened?
For the record they have conceded 19 at home and scored just 4 in 5 games. And their games at home average 4.6 goals each, the 2nd highest in the league.
The fact that they recovered enough to go to Man City and only conceded two probably suggests that wounds have been patched a bit, if not altogether healed.
For their part, Everton have scored just 3 on the road in 5 games. They do however boast the joint 3rd most conceded away from home with 9 against them. There should be goals on offer in this one, if you can bring yourself to buy either a Saints or Everton ‘asset’.
2. Norwich vs Watford
2nd and 1st place for most goals conceded collide here, as Norwich have conceded the 2nd most at home (14) and Watford have conceded the most away (13). A Norwich home game provides the best value for a season ticket holder as they have seen 4.8 goals per game.
This should in theory mean goals galore as Norwich also sit joint 4th for most goals scored at home (10) this season. Watford however have only scored two on their travels. Which rather spoils the argument!
3. Wolves vs Aston Villa
Villa are the 2nd worst away from home in the porous stakes having shipped 11 so far. Wolves however have only scored 7 at home, which is joint 13th in that respect. Villa have managed to score 8 on the road whilst Wolves have conceded the same amount at home. And Wolves have yet another Europa League tie on Thursday, which despite what Nuno proclaims does tend to derail them a touch.
THE TABLES
Like any good school boy, we like to show our ‘workings out’…
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12. This article was written by Inittowinit.
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The road to GW12 begins with our Fixtures article which is brought to us by Init. Its a bit different to usual but its superb and I’m sure you’ll find it helpful.
Cheers Init.
Fantastic article, Init! I played Lundy and walked away with a solid 91pts this GW. Pretty sweet considering my captain, KDB, blanked. Can’t have it all!
Putting by the money on Vardy this week.
With 2.1 ITB, and 1FT, I’m feeling the usual “trigger finger” to make a move. Not sure if there is anything urgent, but I might upgrade Pope?
Lundstram is the 5th highest scoring player in the game, why is he 2nd on your bench?
Well he does seem protected by his personal ‘Pope-mobile’ over the next 3 weeks, with WHU, Watford & Palace (although they are tough). Then he encounters much stouter opposition from round 15. Was thinking the same thing, but who for? Was thinking of swapping for Henderson in 2 weeks time, given their run of fixtures from round 14.
Congrats on your GW result mate – I was just behind you, but captained Raheem – sounds ridiculous doesn’t it? The week your captain scores 1 point is your highest scoring week:
Oh – in my narcissistic navel-gazing, I forgot to thank our opening batsman Innit, for this more than respectable analysis of the week’s proceedings! And Cookster, at the bowler’s end, faithfully seconding his captain! Hope all is fine boys. Speak to you soon.
. A big shout out to Kralin too Innit, if you’re in contact. His humour and wit also something to look forward to in the not so distant past. When’s he due back?
Thanks both.
Not sure on Kralin, he said ‘Christmas’, I have emailed him saying that you were asking about him, as I said I would. He hasn’t responded though, although that is not unusual, he’s said before that he rarely checks those. Can but hope he’s ok and he’s been sorely missed.
I miss Kralin too. Send him my regards. Hopefully he’ll be back soon with his excellent knowledge and humour.
I remember Kralin from the FF First site and recall he once went ‘AWOL’ from there for a couple of months before safely ‘returning’. I’m hoping this is something similar and nothing to be concerned about. I always enjoy reading his comments and ‘talking’ to him on the forums, so hopefully he will reappear.
Yep, like Chipster said, done this a few times in FFFst due to busy work. Surely he will be back soon.
Thanks Init. Great article and nice to see a slightly different viewpoint. Makes sense given the IB.
And thanks to everyone on the site for keeping me sane and encouraging me to push on through the tough game weeks. Started GW1 at 500k but then somehow found myself at 1.8m by GW5. Six green arrows in a row and now back up to 500k which is a lot to do with the advice and encouragement of you lot! Cheers!
Thanks Ben, and great work plugging away at it.
Simple, succinct, stupendous.
Thanks Init. Eye is drawn to that table, love that bit.
Champions League week and a Friday fixture and deadline. Lovely!
Thanks GP, wasn’t sure about the content but just read it back and it’s actually quite good! :don-t_mention:
You know my feelings on a Friday deadline! :rant:
For the last two weeks I have wanted to bring in Vardy and remove Kun, I do the transfer but just can’t bring my self to press confirm, no idea why.
Might have to give someone my password to do it for me!
Are Mount and Vardy going to out score Kun and CHO over the next bunch of weeks?
I reckon so
So make the transfer you silly woman.
Yeah I reckon it’s time
Carolyn, i would not hesitate to press that button. Two reasons:
1. Vardy can march Aguero this season in scoring.
2. Vardy is certain to start as long as he is fit. The same can’t be said for Aguero. Even when fit Gaurdiola rotation does not assure that.
Carolyn
It’s time!
I’m doing it this week, could’ve been anytime the last few and I realise that.
You are all right of course and I WILL do it! But not till Friday obviously.
I WILL DO IT
G’day Caz. I made this move 3 weeks ago and it nearly broke my heart as I find it extremely difficult to envisage a season without Aguero, but since then Jamie has been raking in the points! I’ll reconsider when Leicester’s run of favourable fixtures comes to an end, when we can see things more clearly. Hope this helps! Cheerio..
Yep. Been the same.
I just did it. Not happy about it though
Thanks initto. for this article. Thanks also to other contributors on this site including the FPL managers. something interesting (from my perspective) in GW11 is that my defense of three defenders scored more points (41) than the rest of my team. i.e. Ludy (21), Rico (6) and Soyu (14). Until GW12 i had not really thought i could invest in the defense.
I’d say this past week was an exception not the normal!
i am more inclined to agree with you on that. It also seems that teams are now adopting the Liverpool model (of using full backs besides the Midfielders to provide supply upfront). however, they are improving it in that the defenders actually aim to score rather than just assisting.
I can only imagine how you feel.
I had 2 out of those 3 on my bench too. But having Lundstram on field definitely lightened the blow.