Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 31
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 31. Agreeing to write an article for Gameweek 31 is making me feel a little bit like the Birmingham City ‘fan’ who punched Jack Grealish on Sunday afternoon; a mug. As I set about planning for this article, two issues became clear early on: (1) we won’t even know the full set Gameweek 32 fixtures until after Gameweek 31 deadline, and (2) we won’t even know the full set of Gameweek 33 fixtures until after the Gameweek 31 deadline. Given that we usually look at the upcoming three gameweeks, those two issues make this article – for want of a better word – bullsh*t.
Undeterred, I have tried to come up with a way of making this article useful despite its speculative foundation. As such, I have split it into discussing the teams with guaranteed fixtures in Gameweeks 31 and 33 and then teams that will likely have two fixtures in Gameweek 32. I appreciate that this lends itself heavily towards those with all their chips left to play and the ‘FH 32, WC 34’ strategy but I cannot see a way of comprehensively dealing with everyone’s unique situations in one article. It will hopefully still be of use to those deploying different strategies simply by discussing the stats for the upcoming gameweeks and I will throw in some teams I would be looking at if I was running a different chip strategy. To avoid taking up your whole lunch break or your significant other thinking you’ve got bowel problems because you’ve been in the bathroom for so long, I will focus on the favourable fixtures.
Unusually, I have not reviewed the weekend’s games to introduce this article. It probably has something to do with Salah being totally obliterated by his cheaper attacking teammates. It probably also has something to do with not owning Sterling. It possibly has something to do with me throwing a tantrum and watching the Six Nations instead of the football. At least it made my intro short for once.
FPL FIXTURE TRACKER
FIXTURE TRACKER LINK
Favourable fixtures for Gameweeks 31 and 33
Bournemouth – Newcastle (H) in GW31 & Burnley (H) in GW33
It will take more than a 2-0 victory against Huddersfield to convince us that Bournemouth have turned a corner away from home. Luckily, Bournemouth’s fixtures in Gameweeks 31 and 33 are both at home. The Cherries have only lost to United, Arsenal, Liverpool and City at home and they scored 2+ in nine of their other eleven games at the Vitality. Callum Wilson also returned from injury in style with a goal and an assist against Huddersfield and seemingly also managed to inspire Ryan Fraser to a return to form as he chipped in with a goal and an assist too.
Newcastle have just two points in their last six away games and conceded in every single one of them. Burnley have been poor away from home all season; managing just three clean sheets and conceding 2+ in 8/16 matches.
Bournemouth are also showing promise of some defensive returns having conceded just two goals in their last four away games, which included ties against Manchester City (1) and Chelsea (0). Newcastle have failed to score in six of their matches on the road this season (in 14) and Burnley have failed to score in eight.
Leicester – Burnley (A) in GW31 & Huddersfield (A) in GW33
Since September, Leicester have only managed to put more than one goal past Wolves (3) away from home. It is, therefore, a little disconcerting that their fixtures in Gameweeks 31 and 33 are both away. More promisingly, those games are against two sides fighting relegation. Well, one is fighting it and the other has lost the battle; Burnley and Huddersfield (need I say ‘respectively’?). Burnley and Huddersfield place 3rd and 4th (respectively!) in the charts for the most goals conceded at home.
Defensively, Leicester might not be worth your investment this week. Sorry Pereira owners but I would be surprised to see the Foxes shut Burnley out; Burnley have scored in each of their last 9 home games and have only drawn a blank against Chelsea and Manchester United at home all season whilst Leicester have only kept four clean sheets on the road. Huddersfield have scored in four of their last six home games too so I wouldn’t count on a Leicester clean sheet across the two fixtures. Poor Pereira owners.
Liverpool – Fulham (A) in GW31 & Southampton (A) in GW33
It is a shame that Liverpool’s fixtures in Gameweeks 31 and 33 are both away from home; Klopp’s men have scored 20 fewer goals away from Anfield which seems them rank below Crystal Palace in that respect (by one goal). Promisingly, their games are against two sides fighting relegation. Well, one is fighting it and the other has lost the battle; Southampton and Fulham (need I say ‘respectively’?). Southampton and Fulham place 5th and 2nd (respectively!) in the charts for the most goals conceded at home. No, you aren’t re-reading the Leicester section by accident (well, you sort of are because I did just copy and paste it) but Liverpool’s fixtures are similarly excellent, despite both being away from home.
Many of us fell into the ‘trap’ of doubling up on Liverpool defence rather than their attackers this week which backfired massively. Presumably you would have taken Mane/Firmino to partner Salah and we all know how well they did this weekend in contrast to Robertson, Van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold. Hopefully the defenders will strike back over the coming weeks as Liverpool have only conceded 17 goals all season and just eight of those came away from home. Whilst Fulham have only failed to score just four times at home all season, they only scored one goal in a further seven of those matches. It is worth noting that Southampton have managed to score in their last nine home games though, including six against Manchester United (2), Arsenal (3) and Manchester City (1).
Unfavourable fixtures?
Everton – Chelsea (H) in GW31 & Arsenal (H) in GW33
I know I said I am focusing on favourable fixtures but Everton’s fixtures are probably worthy of mention as I imagine a fair few of you will have an Everton player taking up a valuable spot in your squad. In stark contrast to Leicester and Liverpool, Everton have two tricky home fixtures. Everton have only won one game at home in the league since November (Bournemouth). It remains to be seen whether Chelsea have recovered from their 4-0 and 6-0 defeats away to Bournemouth and Manchester City, respectively, but things are clearly not all good in the camp. Whilst I would not be bringing in Everton attackers, I don’t think I would be getting rid of them in preparation for the blanks either. Despite failing to score in their most recent two home fixtures, they were against City and Liverpool and the Toffees have only failed to score on one other occasion at home (Leicester). Chelsea have conceded in eight of their last nine away fixtures and Arsenal, as I am sure you are all aware, haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home all season. *Makes a note to bet on BTTS in Everton games in the coming weeks*
Free hit in GW31?
West Ham lost 2-0 to Cardiff at the weekend and Felipe Anderson is disliked by just about every FPL manager right now yet I would still want some West Ham coverage this weekend if I was ‘free hitting’. Their opponents, Huddersfield, has been commented on already. Suffice it to say that whilst West Ham may not be firing on all cylinders at the moment, Huddersfield are firing on fewer with just four points since November. West Ham’s Gameweek 33 opponent is Chelsea away from home which is why I would probably prioritise the above listed teams over West Ham if you are trying to get players in to cover both gameweeks.
Favourable fixtures in Gameweek 32
Manchester City – Fulham (A) and Cardiff (H) in GW32
This is where the article gets a little bit speculative. It is not even clear that Manchester City have a double gameweek in Gameweek 32 but it is logical and Fulham and Cardiff are their likely opponents. Fulham away from home has been discussed above. As for Cardiff at home, the Bluebirds have conceded 26 goals away from home and only scored nine. Chelsea and Liverpool both put four past Cardiff at home but there is not much point talking about Cardiff’s results when City are averaging 3.31 goals at home and 0.75 goals conceded.
The problem really though is predicting who will play. With such good fixtures comes an added rotation risk to throw into Pep’s equation. One would presume that Jesus and Aguero will start a game each and Sane and Mahrez will start one at the expense of Sterling and Bernardo but I would be surprised to see that actually happen. The mystery of Benjamin Mendy could also spring us a surprise that week. As Guy wisely said last week, I will let future writers do the legwork on which Manchester City players you will want for Gameweek 32.
Chelsea – Cardiff (A) and Brighton (H) in GW32
Again, this Cardiff and Brighton double-up is not confirmed. Cardiff have conceded more goals at home (31) than any other side in the league. Cardiff have bizarre home form; in their last six home matches, they have three clean sheets, conceding eleven in the other three. Despite beating Crystal Palace 2-1 away from home this weekend, Brighton’s away form is poor; three wins and one clean sheet all season.
Chelsea’s team, touch wood, should also be easier to predict than City’s. Sarri simply does not have the squad depth that Pep does to start giving Hazard and co the day off. This arguably makes them better picks in Gameweek 32 although I’d be lying if I said I am planning on having more Chelsea players than City players that week.
Manchester United – Watford (H) and Wolves (A) in GW32
The Ole revolution is over. Rip up the permanent contract. Rip up your season ticket renewal form. After making history midweek, United were certainly ‘due’ a Premier League defeat under Ole and it came in pretty convincing fashion against Arsenal. However, it will take more than that for us to consider United assets not worth touching anymore. Hey, at least if you captained Pogba this week he contributed to your points tally.
This double gameweek has been confirmed for Manchester United; Watford at home followed by Wolves away. Watford have just three clean sheets away from home all season, conceding 2+ on seven occasions. Wolves have also conceded 2+ on seven occasions at home this season, managing five clean sheets. Whilst the Premier League newcomers have only conceded five goals in their last seven matches, including Chelsea’s last gasp equaliser today and Huddersfield’s last gasp winner a few weeks back, they have had a relatively easy run of fixtures recently so don’t let that deter you from United assets. Limiting Bournemouth and Chelsea to just one goal each at their home stadiums are notable achievements though.
It is probably not the time to bring United defenders in though; Watford have blanked away from home just five times all season and Wolves just four times. You might get one clean sheet, but I wouldn’t bank on it. I’d sooner bank on the defender you choose being rested in the game they manage to pluck a clean sheet out of!
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 31. This article was written by AT.
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Madison to Fraser or keep it as it is? Got 12 I can field. I’m pretty sure Balbuena will start the next game. They are leaking goals without him.
And tnx for the article AT. How are you doing mate?
Difficult choice you’ve got there, Raz! I agree with you on Balbuena.
If I was choosing one for GW31 and 33 I think Fraser would get the nod. Not least because you have Vardy already.
Guessing it’s for a FT? Still makes me feel a little uneasy!
I am well mate, cheers. And you?
Hey mate. Tnx for the advise. Yeah, it’s a hard one. I am planning to FH in gw32, probably. Using my FT now,,,, would that matter? If not, I might do the Fraser thing.
By the way, did you know that Maddison created the most chances out of any premier league player this season? That includes Hazard and co.
Only in the sense that I definitely wouldn’t do it if it was for a hit. I did know that, which is why I am really not sure if I’d do it or not! Such a tricky decision. Bournemouth certainly have encouraging home stats but, as you say, Maddison has very encouraging individual stats.
Fraser is tempting especially since Newcastle will most likely miss both their central defenders
Good point.
Great stuff here AT! And you were whining about not know what to write! I think someone was pulling our leg haha
I need so answers to a few questions for this BGW.
1. What number of players is everyone aiming for?
2. Is a GK necessary?
Depending on the answers to the above I have created 2 options for my moves this week. I’ll be playing my FH for 32.
A. Etheridge, Lindelof and Sane to Fab, Ake and Mane. (11 players but -8)
B. Lindelof and Sane to Luiz/Rudiger and Mane (10 players and -4)
Any other thoughts?
My main goal was to field 11 players.. I notice I have 12 now. Some not the best, maybe. Hmm. Hard one. Usually I just do hits when I am really certain they could pay off. So -4 or -8. Well technically a hit for a goalie is probably a -2 or maybe a -1 if he gets 3 saves and concedes once. It might be worth the risk. Gaah. I don’t know. It hink too much too give advise. If you have 10 players you should be fine. Mane probably is a must.
Can you do McCarthy to Boruc and Sane to Mane?
Be interesting to see how many people do intend to go in with. Those not Free Hitting anyway, of course, less than 11 plus subs would be an unusual answer to that
I have 6 as we speak, with the aim of going to either 8 or 9, depending on whether I feel it is worth it. Admittedly that’s not the best planning on my part but up until this past week I genuinely hadn’t decided when to FH.
Honestly, I really hope a lot of people would do a -8 this week.
That will seriously catapult me in the rankings :hippo: !!
When’s a -8 not necessarily a -8 though… 😉
Come GW33, I ll be breathing in Raz’s neck for sure 😉
p.s. 70pts ahead as we speak…
Just recommend completely the wrong captains in 32 and go away and secretly select the correct one yourself
AKA Good Cop, Bad Kop this week with Kun 
(it wasn’t a deliberate tactic!!!).
That’s the plan :bouncy-balls:
Cheers lads. Raz I honestly don’t know what you ended up suggesting there haha.
Smash I can definitely do that with dosh left over.
Cheers Init yeah I was kind of the same as yourself as I didn’t know what I was really planning but played it safe by added in guys that would play in 31.
I’m all for getting a full 11. They should hopefully pay you back across GW 31 and 33 just by getting 2 points in each. Having said that, you’d have a FT in 33 so maybe just the two transfers this week.
That’s true mate. It’s the GK spot I’m not sure is worth it but I’m probably wrong haha
I’d probably sack the GK spot too
Yeah like I was going for either West Ham or Bournemouth defensive cover I just wasn’t sure if it’d be Fab/Rice or Boruc/Ake
Keepers sometimes get big points. Generally I prefer a cheapo GK over a defender. It’s Higuain I’m not sure about or even a gamble on Arnie starting and selling Aguero. I mean I’d bring him back on free hit and WC34 anyway
Yeah I’m not sure on Higuain either but hopefully he’ll score big. I don’t have Aguero though I sold him last week for Vardy.
Superb stuff AT, many thanks. As you say it’s a difficult one to judge and write this but I reckon you handled it brilliantly. I’d put it down as character building if nothing else! I love how you think that intro is short…..
I love how when I wrote it I instantly thought that you would pull me up on it
Thanks AT. An inevitable task writing up the chaos over the next few weeks.
Perhaps this week more than ever advice is needed. I’m still not sure how to tackle the chip strategy. I had planned to ride this one, TC 32, FH 33, WC 34 and BB 35. As it stands I only have 6 potentially playing this week and am happy I take a hit or two but not at the expense of losing players I then can’t afford to buy straight back next week.
Any suggestions?
FT sitch? Just quickly glancing at the team I’d say Nasri and Dunk to Rice and how much have you left?
No FTs. Used one to get Haz. As I said, I’m not against a hit but the likes of Jimenez and Pogba I want to keep as I’ve got too much value built up in them.
Nasri is killing me as he’s done FA for ages but this really is his last chance. Rice is a decent shout
Yeah I assumed you didn’t want to sell any united so only suggested Dunk and Nasri haha. I doubt there is anyone else you’d want to sell maybe Bennett?
It’s just awkward because I’d want to buy them all back for the DGW next week.
Are there any ‘must-haves’ this week?
I’d say Mane for sure! After that I’d only have Salah to cover myself but I wouldn’t say there are any must-haves
I only have 6 myself, it’ll be 8 or 9 by the time we get there. I honestly think your best strategy is the one you laid out. This is because we still don’t actually know who gets a DGW32. The FH allows for this but also being able to cherry pick the best ones for it. As opposed to simply adding a few extra bodies this week, and probably on weaker teams.
That’s the hand I’ve left myself with so I’ll play it the best I can. In all honesty there aren’t many appealing options this week and all bar Chelsea or Newcastle come at the expense of a DGW player
My apologies here SAF’s, I actually misread your chip strategy as FH32 to begin with. I’m on FH32, WC34 and BB35. With the TC on a single. Going this way negates the issues you mention with trying to keep DGW’ers in there. You are however better set up for DGW32 than I am and if I was better set up like that I think I’d go as you are and TC on it.
Cheers Init. Any which way seems to have a downside. If I had a choice I’d prefer the FH 32 route but I’d have to take quite a hit this week to make that work and I don’t see it paying off. I’ll hope to ride this out with 7 players and then attack the DGWs
Great article AT.
Really helpful
Thx.
Cheers popz!
Hey guys
With bgwks & dgwks on the horizon, excuse my ignorance but what are the conatations regarding who may or may not play in these weeks?
Been looking at the tracker with at risk and possible scenarios but ain’t sure the likely hood of who’ll play.
I’m guessing it’s based on cup games on who beats who.
The 33 ‘At Risk’ ones will be off if any of the teams or potential opponents in 33 reach the semis.
The 32 ones are simply at the behest of the clubs rescheduling them. Take those on the tracker as being our best guess as to which ones will actually be in 32. I guess they’re all waiting to see what suits them depending on the cup results. Some may be shifted to 35 depending on the above.
Thakyou Innit.
I’m itching to start tinkering but will have to be patient.
Still working out my team for 31 & 33
How many players in these would you say is adequate.
Got 5/6 atm ..is a 8-12 point hit stupid to get 3 or 4 more?
Not stupid at all. If you can plump up for both weeks then even better to be hitting to replace otherwise zero point spots. Sort of makes the -2 hit theory a 0 theory if you view them over the piece.
I’ll have 8 or 9 this week, after either a -4 or a -8 and then a full 11 for 33.
Ok ta
Makes sense
Especially like you said it takes care of two gwks too.