Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 14
Welcome to Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 14.
Why do you build me up (build me up) Buttercup, baby
Just to let me down (let me down) and mess me around
And then worst of all (worst of all) you never call, baby
When you say you will (say you will) but I love you still
I need you (I need you) more than anyone, darlin’
You know that I have from the start
So build me up (build me up) Buttercup, don’t break my heart.
This song may have been released long before the conception of FPL but its lyrics are tailor made for the emotions an FPL manager goes through. Weâve all been built up only to be let downâĻin the game-week just past many of us were let down by the likes of Richarlison, Martial and Aguero. And you know what? Theyâll all do it againâĻ
When I last wrote a Tips article I focused on the gameâs most popular players and Iâve decided to take a different tact again this week. You donât need me to tell you that you should be buying the likes of Sterling and Sane, which obviously goes without saying. Instead, this week, I have decided to focus on those players who feature for teams outside of the top 6. This will come as good news to United fans as it will give us an opportunity to tip United players!!
Goalkeepers
Our first goalkeeper this week is someone who has kept just one clean sheet from the opening 13 games and has conceded a total of 22 goals in that period. I refer of course to Lukasz Fabianski. Great start to a Tips article, eh? Bear with me. Despite keeping just the one clean sheet heâs only 23pts behind Ederson who has kept eight clean sheets and has chipped in with an assist. How has he managed this? By making saves. With 53 saves to his name only Joe Hart has kept more. He has made three or more saves in a game on 10 occasions this season and on four occasions heâs made six or more. Given West Hamâs fixtures over the opening months of the season it was predicted that they would have a tough time and so it has proven. However, between now and GW21 they do not face a team in the top eight. Their opposition in these eight games have scored an average of just under 12 goals this season. Surely there are a number of clean sheets to be picked up over the remainder of 2018? Should you be a fan of fixtures over form then Fabianski is the man for you!
Having taken 10pts from their last four games Newcastle now sit 13th in the table, four points above the relegation zone. Mike Ashley must be wondering why the fans are always moaning! Theyâve conceded just twice in this period and have afforded the opposition just 13 shots on target. With stats like these perhaps itâs time to consider Martin Dubravka. To be honest Newcastleâs defensive stats across the season have been ok, they actually have the joint 7th best defence in the league. They have a nice run of fixtures over the next five game-weeks and Dubravka could be a decent source for clean sheets. My only concern is his ÂŖ5.0m price tag.
A couple of other keepers outside of the top 6 worth considering are Brightonâs Matt Ryan and Huddersfieldâs Jonas Lossl. Ryan has kept three clean sheets to date and is something like a mini Fabianski. Heâs made three or more saves on nine occasions this season and itâs worth noting that he picked up a total of seven bonus points across the three games in which he kept clean sheets. Some might say that weâre only tipping Lossl as a result of Huddersfield keeping a clean sheet against Wolves on Sunday and I suppose thereâs an element of truth to that. However, the stats suggest that they have improved defensively. Over the course of the season they have conceded 56 shots on target, nine teams have a better record. When we look at the past four game-weeks we see that they have conceded just 12 on target, only bettered by three teams. It therefore comes as no surprise that two of Losslâs three clean sheets have come in the last four games.
Defenders
Given West Hamâs fixtures over the coming game-weeks I feel compelled to include a defender from the Hammers this week. But which one? At least Fabianski has stood out thanks to his saves, Iâm not sure the same can be said for any of the defenders in front of him. Having had a quick look at the underlying attacking stats Fabian Balbuena is the one to consider. Heâs had 20 penalty area touches, the next best is Zabaleta with five. Heâs had 14 attempts at goal, the next best is Diop with three. Admittedly, only two of his 14 attempts have hit the target! In terms of chances created Aaron Cresswell leads the way but his game time has been limited this season thanks to Arthur Masuaku. Balbuenaâs defensive stats are also significantly better than any of his colleagues and itâs therefore no surprise to see that he leads the BPS among West Ham defenders by 46pts. This suggests that should the Hammers start to keep clean sheets then Balbuena is in with a shot of picking up some bonus points and itâs worth noting that in the only game in which West Ham kept a clean sheet thus far Balbuena claimed two bonus points.
Any manager who recently opted for Lewis Dunk over his defensive colleague Shane Duffy must currently feel like a pig in sh*t as the English international found the back of the net in game-weeks 11&12. Despite these goals itâs Shane Duffy Iâm going for! Theyâve both scored twice but Duffyâs stats are more impressive. Over the course of the season heâs had 20 penalty area touches compared to Dunkâs 10, eight goal attempts compared to Dunkâs four and four efforts on target compared to Dunkâs two. Even when we focus on the past four game-weeks we see that stats wise Duffy leads the way. I appreciate that we canât always be led by stats but given the variance between their stats Iâm willing to wager that Dunk just got lucky recently. No doubt this will come back to haunt me…
As Iâve already noted above Newcastleâs defensive stats are quite impressive and with a decent run of fixtures over the coming game-weeks it might be worthwhile investing in one of their defenders. For me itâs a choice between DeAndre Yedlin and Federico Fernandez. To date Fernandez (ÂŖ4.4m) has scored 38pts and Yedlin (ÂŖ4.5m) has scored 37pts. If we compare their underlying stats over the past four game-weeks we see that Fernandez has had two penalty area touches compared to Yedlinâs three, Fernandez has had one goal attempt compared to Yedlinâs three, with Yedlin registering one effort on target. Yedlin has created three chances compared to Fernandezâs one. As you can see thereâs little to choose between the two but if I had to choose one it would probably be Yedlin.
Against United on Saturday afternoon Crystal Palace picked up their first clean sheet since GW6. It should be noted that in the intervening period they faced the likes of Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea & Spurs so it shouldnât come as a surprise that they struggled for clean sheets. Their fixtures are set to somewhat improve over the next few weeks and therefore Aaron Wan-Bissaka priced at ÂŖ4.2m comes back into our thoughts. Granted he still features in 26.7% of teams but he has been sold off by many in recent weeks. His underlying attacking stats donât bear comparison with PVA, but PVAâs form over the course of the season doesnât warrant you spending the extra ÂŖ1.2m on the Dutchman.
Iâll finish up with possibly one of the biggest punts Iâve made in all the years Iâve been writing Tips articles and that is Cardiffâs Sol Bamba! This is what happens when I choose to ignore the top 6. Iâll be waiting for my P45 to arrive in the post this week!(Ed. no chance!) Over the past four game-weeks Bamba has had six attempts on goal with two on target. In fact, over the course of the season his underlying attacking stats are comparable to those of Balbuena. Itâs just such a pity that Cardiff canât defend and donât have Fabianski between the sticks. However, by Cardiffâs standards their fixtures through to the end of 2018 are ok and this could very well see Bamba among the points.
Midfielders
Continuing with our Hammers love affair our first midfield tip this week is Felipe Anderson. The Brazilian arrived in the Premier League with something of a reputation but like many before him he took some time to adapt to the league. To date heâs scored four and encouragingly three of those four have come in his last three games. He clearly does the majority of his best work outside of the area as in the past four game-weeks heâs had just 13 touches in the opposition area. Heâs had just nine goal attempts but five of these have been on target. To be honest his stats arenât overly impressive even when you compare him to those at a similar price point. However, sometime you need to look past the stats to the end product. Heâs clearly the creative spark in the Hammers midfield and with their great run of fixtures over the coming weeks I expect to see more from the Brazilian.
Despite Bournemouthâs upcoming fixtures I have decided to include one of their midfielders. This says a lot about what is available outside of the top 6! Rather than Ryan Fraser I am instead going for David Brooks. The reason being that at ÂŖ5.1m Brooks is ÂŖ1.1m cheaper than the Scot and I would find it very difficult to tip Fraser at that price given their fixtures. Brooks on the other hand is potentially 5th midfielder material and be rotated accordingly with a defender or forward. I think itâs fair to say Fraser is the better player but Brooks has impressed this season with three goals and an assist. Despite their tough fixtures over the coming game-weeks Bournemouth are unlikely to change their modus operandi, meaning they will attempt to play on the front foot and this means there is every chance Brooks will pick up some attacking returns.
Having already tipped Sol Bamba Iâm now going to tip two Cardiff midfielders, Callum Paterson and Victor Camarasa. As Iâve already alluded to Cardiff arenât great at the back, unfortunately theyâre not great going forward either. However, Paterson is priced at ÂŖ5.2m and is currently playing OOP as the lone frontman, and has scored three times in his last five games. Colin has chopped and changed his forwards over the course of the season but Paterson has started each of the last seven games. Heâs not going to set the world alight but given Cardiffâs fixtures over the coming weeks thereâs every chance heâll score another couple of goals. For those of you who want a ÂŖ4.5m midfielder to sit on your bench every week Camarasa would appear an ideal candidate. Having missed out in GW1 the Spaniard has started every subsequent game. Amongst midfielders priced at ÂŖ4.5m or less his stats are impressive, heâs had 13 (2nd) penalty area touches, 17 (3rd) goal attempts of which four (2nd) were on target and heâs created 19 (1st) chances.
Forwards
For some reason I thought Marko Arnautovic had scored more goals than he actually has. To date he has scored five and is currently just the 9th highest scoring forward in the game. He is however the 4th most popular player in the game. Is he deserving of his popularity levels? Personally, when I thought of strikers outside of the top 6 for this article his was the first name to pop into my mind when there are actually four other strikers outside of the top 6 who have scored more points than him. However, as Iâve already pointed out, more than once, West Ham have some superb fixtures over the coming week. Arnieâs stats are also quite impressive, over the course of the season heâs had 81 (3rd) penalty area touches, 34 (5th) goal attempts of which 16 (4th) were on target. While heâs also created 16 (5th) chances. These stats are made more impressive when you consider that the Austrian has missed two games due to injury. Speaking of injuries, Arnautovic is currently a doubt for the weekend so if you do have plans to purchase him this week I wouldnât do anything until we bring you Team News on Friday.
To call Glenn Murray a journeyman is possibly doing him a disservice but heâs certainly been around the block. Heâs played the majority of football in the lower leagues and in the past he hasnât exactly shone in the PL. However, having scored 12 last season and seven thus far this season he is certainly sticking two fingers up at those who say heâs too old. Iâve had a look at his stats and theyâre not very impressive but thatâs hardly a surprise given that heâs not the most mobile striker in the league. He does however know where the back of the net is and at ÂŖ6.7m heâs certainly value for money.
After Arnautovic and Murray thereâs very little to get remotely excited by! Given Bournemouthâs fixtures and the fact that Callum Wilson is now priced at ÂŖ6.8m means I canât tip him. Iâd include Salomon Rondon if I felt he could repeat his two goal salvo from GW12, but I donât. Crystal Palace have some great fixtures ahead but have scored just eight times this season which rules out Wilfried Zaha. Can I really include just two strikers in a Tips article? I donât know! But for good measure Iâm going to include everyoneâs favourite Serbian, Aleksandar Mitrovic. Iâm well aware that Mitrovic blanked for six consecutive weeks before his brace against Southampton at the weekend and itâs unfortunate that he wonât face Southampton every weekend. However, he strikes me as the kind of player whoâs at his best when heâs confident and those goals against Southampton will certainly have given a boost to his confidence. So too will the words of his new gaffer who following the Southampton game claimed Mitrovic to be one of the best strikers in the world. Admittedly Fulham have some difficult games over the coming weeks but donât be surprised to see Mitroâs name on the scoresheet.
Before I wrap up I really should include a United player for fear of upsetting our Mancunians. Unfortunately the pickings are slim. Their clean sheet against Palace was just their 2nd of the season so that rules out de Gea and his merry men. To be honest thereâs really only Anthony Martial. Despite his six goals in five games between game-weeks 8&12 I donât tip him with a great deal of confidence. United continue to struggle and the fast flowing football we once associated with them is but a thing of the past. His stats over the past six game-weeks are pretty impressive and perhaps we should look past the team and concentrate on the player.
On a final note it looks as though it’s the turn of West Ham to build us up and let us down!
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 14. This article was written by Kop
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Really enjoyed that Kop, not only made for interesting reading but it also allowed me to picture Julia Roberts singing Buttercup
Great research and stats mate, many thanks.
0.9 in Bank and 1 FT
Was about to get Arnautovich for Wilson, but not sure he will play.
1. Should I get someone or spare transfer for next week
2. Is it time to play my wildcard (Still thinking my team don’t need that for now)
3. Which one you think I should bench this week ?
Thanks in advance !
1. Save transfer for next week.
Well, look who’s back from the dead. At last some time to invest on fpl. Any ideas fpl gurus?
I had Doherty captain last week on a dare and result in a 15k drop to 25k! C’est la vie.
Depends if you have any plans to go for Kane next week (midweek)?
Sorry to see you lose the foothold of caution, Z.
As long as Trips is back for the Southampton game then you could roll the transfer. The next GW is soon upon us.
In the unlikely event of your having several millions stashed away, Martial to Sterling is a, well, dream come true probably.
I think you are my last mental connection to fpl. Maybe Nomde or Chorley. Ah, a bit of Friday morning nostalgia.
Well, I would roll the transfer but I already have 2. Surely there must be something to improve this team. I was thinking along the lines of Aguero to Success and Ward to Sterling. Trippier to a 4.5 and Mane to Sterling? Is Sane truly an option? Richarlison to D. Silva and Trippier to a 4.5?
How’s your team looking this year?
Morning all. hope everyone is having a pleasant Thursday. Out of curiosity to those who do the transfers late, not taking team value into account, when do you guys normally do the transfers when there is a Friday evening deadline. would it be after all the pressers around 4-5pm?
I’ve got to really got Hazard and Lacazette doubts?
Hi Eresh, if I can, meaning I know I can free some time between 4 and 7pm on the Friday, then yes that’s what I will do.
If I’m not confident I can I’ll still take as much info as possible, for instance this week wait for Europa league games, and maybe for some pressers as some of them happen on Thursday sometimes, and then do transfers on Thursday night/Friday morning.
cheers frenchie. nice to hear from your POV. its only my 2nd FPL:season and 98percent of the time i did my transfers no more than 12 hours before deadline.
Great music start Kop and followed by an excellent article which gives lots of thinking as I think the tenplate will be changing very soon.
Afternoon all.
What to do with this lot ?
Got 1ft zero in the bank
Iâd plan to carry that over, pending any further Hazard updates.