Fantasy Premier League Tips Formation Analysis
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League Tips Formation Analysis. What formation to play has previously and largely been a non-discussion. In past seasons it’s seemed that, other than a few voices pushing for a 3-5-2 formation, the default has been a 3-4-3. Front heavy teams have thrived with expensive forwards like Kun, van Persie, Drogba, Rooney, Suarez etc. Mix in a few high priced mids and cheap enablers in the defence and on the bench and you’ve had yourself a recipe for success.
Are we suddenly beginning to see a shift this season though? It certainly feels like it but is there any evidence to back this up or does it just feel like it because Klopp’s computer says ‘no’ to forwards?! We shall take a look at the overall points scorers, the weekly dream team formation and the highest points scorers every week to see if there’s a pattern there or any evidence to suggest we should be looking at one formation or another as a route to success. Oh and a couple of sample teams as well to illustrate the points.
Top scorers so far
Let’s take a quick look at the top points scorers overall so far this season and then look at what we can ascertain from it –
These are the top 14 FPL point scorers so far. We cut off at 14 just because in 15th is a defender and they are largely irrelevant to this discussion but it’s possibly also worth noting the point that it took us to go that far down to actually find one. Then again they are priced cheaper for a reason.
Our conclusions and observations –
– If you cut off at the top 7 then you’ll see that 5 of them are mids and 2 are forwards. You almost certainly couldn’t have afforded the entire combo but as a wish list goes it would read in favour of a 3-5-2.
– If you took the next 7 as a sample then they mirror the pattern – 5 mids and 2 forwards.
– In total that’s 10 out of the 14 being mids and just 4 being forwards. Any betting man would point out the obvious here but we’ll let you make your own conclusions on the odds of landing on the best combo…
The Dream Team
The FPL site put together a ‘dream team’ each week which is basically the highest scoring combo of players for that GW. It differs from our next section, which is the highest fantasy manager’s points score in a week, mainly because this is literally the highest points scorer in each position each week and doesn’t account for chips or captains. It’s basically the premium ‘what if’. All we are looking at here is which formation would have been the best each week. The results are as follows –
Best dream team formations: week-to-week
3-4-3 — 2 weeks (2 & 10)
4-5-1 — 3 weeks (3 & 8 & 9)
3-5-2 — 6 weeks (1 & 4 & 5 & 6 & 7 & 11)
Our conclusions and observations –
– We can see that of the 11 game-weeks we’ve had thus far the highest scoring dream team has been a 3-4-3 only twice.
– 3-5-2 has been the optimum formation on over 50% of occasions.
– 4-5-1 would have been better than 3-4-3 on three occasions.
– On two of the weeks when 4-5-1 was the winner, if the rules of the game had allowed it, a 4-6-0 formation would have in fact scored more points!
Highest weekly score
This is a bit of an odd one, for many reasons, but we thought it was worth mentioning anyway. More for the fact that it can be discounted as a measure really. It’s sometimes skewed by a random or indeed just spot on captain pick and that can then catapult the team to the top regardless of the formation. Likewise with triple captains or the many chips including wildcards. Or simply that it was a fresh team starting for that week, often with the intention of nailing the top score. So many variables make it a slightly unreliable source to judge from in terms of formation but we thought it was best to throw it into the equation.
The formation results for the 11 GW’s of the best scoring team on each are as follows –
3-4-3 — 7 weeks
4-5-1 — 0 weeks
3-5-2 — 2 weeks
4-4-2 — 2 weeks
3-4-3 wins hands down on this measure but as we suggest it is probably a flawed method for examining it. 3-4-3 being the main staple of most so far it is hardly surprising to see this one run out as the winner when you also factor in the variables mentioned.
Example Teams
As we alluded to earlier the FPL budget restrictions mean you can’t afford to just sling in the best 5 mids and 2 forwards and rock on. Nowhere near in fact. Looking at the picture above, of the highest scoring players, the top combo would set you back just shy of £70m. And that’s without defenders, keepers or subs! We’ve taken a conservative approach and cherry picked some of them combined with some of the highest scoring ‘lower priced’ options to come up with a couple of example teams in a 3-5-2 formation. Notably one has Kun and the other doesn’t. These aren’t particularly recommendations as such they are just examples of what is possible as there probably a hundred combinations you could come up with if you were so inclined. We aren’t quite that bored. Yet.
Conclusions
Conclusions?! We wouldn’t be as bold to say you can actually make any definitive ones. This is FPL after all and things can change quickly. Having 5 ‘premium’ mids and skimping on the forwards looks like the trend right now and possibly the way to go, if you can, so as to maximise the midfielders dominance in the points charts. A few key injuries and a sudden return to form for the likes of Kane or Vardy and the scramble will be on to revert back.
Why this shift though? There may be many more complex reasons, but we think the simplest answer may be that most PL teams are only utilising one player (at most) who is classified as a forward in FPL. With most teams playing 5 mids to 1 forward the probability of more mids than forwards featuring in the top scorers list is obvious. The shift to using five midfielders in the league has had an affect on FPL, and will likely continue throughout the remainder of the season. We are almost a third of the way through the 2016-17 season and there’s a reason that the dream team to this point is in a 3-5-2 formation. Granted, Kun and Defoe are hovering just below KDB for the 7th attacker position, but so are Mane and a host of other midfield options. After Kun/Defoe/Ibra there is a significant drop in overall score for forwards, while there are plenty of midfield options.
We can see that we’re in a transition period when we look at the world’s top 10 teams. There is still a bent toward 3-4-3 most weeks, but many have gone with a 3-5-2 for a number of weeks, with some intentional (not a result of auto sub) 4-4-2 and even 4-5-1 formations. This shows that a new strategy may not work across the board, but there may be something to a shift to a 3-5-2 formation.
So what good does all of this do for us? Why does it matter? We’ve got no clue really… We just thought it was interesting! Actually, we think it may have a huge bearing on our teams for the near future and it is something that every serious FPL’er should pay attention to, particularly when we approach the availability of our second WC in January.
What do you think? What have you seen for your team and in your mini-leagues? Will this trend change with the return of Kane and Giroud starting to fire a bit? Will Vardy get back to last season’s form in one of the few teams playing 2 (or even 3) FPL forwards in their starting 11? Only time will tell but as ever we’d be interested to hear your thoughts. Or just carry on chatting about the election, podcasts, cats, the weather, whatever – we don’t really care, we’re just glad you’re here!
Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League Tips Formation Analysis. This article was written by Pancho and Inittowint
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Great article. lots of food for thoughts.
Actually, you could argue that teams with one real forward only play in favour of 3-4-3. This one forward is then the focal spot of the team, and should theoretically score a great deal of FPL points.
But in my opinion there are only four efficient teams playing that way: City, Chelsea, Everton and ManU.
ManU is not running as expected, and Everton is beginning a tough run of fixtures, which leaves Kun and Costa. This is probably why I will also shift to 3-5-2.
However in the comments of the site, the switch from 4-3-3 to 3-5-2 is often paired with the discussion “4-3-3 with Kun” or “3-5-2 without Kun”. Mainly because is you ditch Kun, you are close to being able to really afford the 5 optimal mids.
To me, theses should be two different discussions (formation/Kun). And in my opinion, leaving Kun out still is a very dangerous path. He could easily deliver braces after hatties…
hi Vinci,
what do you think of Kane?
he wasn’t part of the discussion given his injury but now he can be back in business + the low ownership is very tempting.
Absolutely!
Personnally, I will wait a bit to see how efficient he is (I cannot accomodate him immediately anyway!) And on top of that, he has nice (alternative) fixtures.
yes, indeed. he’s my transfer target after the Chelsea game.
Vinci, interesting thoughts on one forward per team actually playing into the advantage of a 3-4-3. That may be true if you can find three forwards that consistently score goals and don’t suck up all of your funds, but the CostKunKaku approach forces significant downgrades in midfield. With midfielder scoring so well this year I don’t think we can afford to downgrade there very much. Very interesting counterpoint, none the less. Cheers Vinci.
You are absolutely right. This year, 3 excellent forwards also means 3 *expensive* forwards. And 5 great mids does not mean that all 5 are as expensive.
Basically, the discussion boils down to:
“is it better that I use my money on a good 3rd forward, or is it better that I improve my 4ths and 5ths mids””
I guess.
So my feeling today would be “3-5-2” is better. BUT I want Kun in my 2 forwards!
How bad is Costa’s injury?
Who should be the replacement?
No one really know yet, but for him to be wthdrawn it must be serious enough to not push it.
Not good news for Conte.
Monitor Kane in these internationals. If he scores, it’s not the worst shout.
Amazing stuff lads. Stats and trends is all we can aim for here. And they surely point to 3-5-2 atm.
In the end it’s up to making educated decisions, guesses and gut feeling strikes.
You make a very decent point on the fact that Liverpool and arsenal are using mids as forwards and how that impacts the stats and trends here.
Also Kun not palying 2 games helps him being behind a few mids.
Maybe the fact that 1 goal from a midfielder gets him 1 more point than from a forward and them also gathering 1 CS point helps to explain the differences.
The only twist on approaching 3-5-2 templates I’d suggest here though is that a 3-5-2 formation needs at least 1 premium defender.
You do have stones in there, which is a premium defender in the sense that he looks nailed on a top team defense, but I mean a premium attacking wise defender who can contribute with the occasional +10 hauls that will balance those weeks where the mids don’t produce enough.
This of course is something that in my view needs Sanchez in there to work so being a 3-5-2 adopter since gw4 I’m actually slightly worried ahead of gw12 if the Chilean is injured or at risk because I simply can’t find the ideal replacement for him to justify not having Kun upfront.
Well done anyway lads and we are also just happy that you are there!
interesting thoughts DMC. I also want to keep one premium defender who can produce +10 occasionally even in the 3-4-3 formation. but in this way you have to throw up either Hazard or Sánchez. but on the other hand you can have Kun + at least 1 premium forward like Costa/Kane/Ibra.
if this trend continues having a decent team value will be a huge advantage for the 2nd half of the season.
That’s the thing dawids11 – a 3-5-2 for me needs Sanchez, Haz, KDB and a Liverpool mid. The 4th mid may then be on the 5.5/6.0 bracket.
That’s the only way you can more or less guarentee enough returns to justify losing the 3rd decent striker.
If you go with let’s say only 2 of those, you’ll be hiding behind the coach every week praying for all the big forwads to fail. Which isn’t fun at all.
Another way to go is in deed have two also good forwards but that will surely weaken your midfield enough to make the 3-5-2 a bad choice comparing to 3-4-3, imo.
yes, this is my view too.
currently i’m on the ‘oldschool’ strategy with 3-4-3 and trying to include Kane as a differential, but on the other hand this would keep me away from Hazard, which is the hiding behind the couch scenario. of course it can change if Sánchez will be ruled out.
anyway, at the end of the day it will only matter how the big guns outscoring each other as you certainly cannot own everybody.
A fascinating discussion. I have my own league constraints, and will probably stick with 3-4-3, but the alternative is very persuasive. Much food for thought.
One thing here. Defense has been left out of e discussion, certainly for good reasons at this point in the season. But won’t they come more into play in January, as the weather turns? Maybe this is for a second WC, but attacking defenders may come back into vogue?
hi KI,
now the trend is that everybody is downgrade the defense in order to raise funds for the midfield. but i do think that some lucky clean sheets from the defenders can give you an extra weekly scores from time to time especially when there’s a low scoring GW. my set up is: 2 rather cheap players who can provide you attacking returns (e.g Holebas/Janmaat/Smith) 2 premium players who can provides you both CS’s and some attacking returns (Walker/Bellerin/Alonso/Coleman) plus 1 enabler.
dawids 11,
Almost exactly my solution. Walker, Coleman, and Smith. Amat is my enabler, and the only difference is McAuley for Holebas. What is it? Great minds….
exactly! 😛
DMC, Dawids, and Ki,
Great thoughts! I left defenders out of the article because you still need three solid defenders every week regardless of which formation you play. I’m going to throw together a 451 team with Cohen up top and see if that might convince us of an even crazier alternative
Kun up top that is, not Leonard Cohen :/
That’d be a ghost team.
A ghost team, to be sure, but a Nobel laureate in waiting always boosts your literary quotient
😉
A biased Canadian
Well played Ki! Where in Canada are you? Is my memory is serving me correctly that you are a fellow Spurs fan?
Pancho,
Yes. Halifax, Nova Scotia. And a suffering Spurs fan since the early ’80s. Mind, the last five years have been my best so far. I think Poch has worked miracles working with that skinflint Levy (and our absentee landlord in the Bahamas). I just hope we can re-sign Lloris and Kane, and fend off United when Mou implodes.
how about this, Pancho? is it crazy enough? 😛
I love it Dawids! Looking like a team that may only be able to field a handful of players this coming game week though
the funny thing is that it’s based on my team with 4 flagged players
will have fun to sort this out with 1 FT..
If it makes you feel better I already took a hit to get Hazard before he rose. But RBI took out Firmino, who went and scored 15 and went up .3 :/
Now I have Bellerin and Sanchez to sort out as well…
And now Smalling is out for a month! At this pace will we have enough starting players of each team for next week games? :alert:
punt on Jones?
Definitely with the fixtures United have coming up barring the Arsenal one..
Very interesting article. I think if I still had my wildcard I would consider making the switch to 3-5-2, but since I don’t 3-4-3 isn’t a bad alternative. I also feel that cheaper strikers are more reliable than the cheaper mids. For example most 3-5-2’s rely on a very cheap playing 5th midfielder, and while Capoue and Allen have both shown good form in parts this season these types of players tend to be just as susceptible to scoring rubbish for multiple weeks in a row. Either way formation should be something worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses.
Agreed Griff. I’m not convinced yet myself that there is a solid enough 3-5-2 that will outscore an affordable 3-4-3. If I had my WC though I would definitely be exploring that option!
Hi Pancho congrats on your very interesting article. I read your long post you did yesterday(i think) so it was very logical to turn it into an article with room for more analysis and observations.
I mostly play a Kun 3-4-3 formation but your since your 3-5-2 seems intriguing then i have decided to use my second account i have left for a couple of years only to create a second “fun and experimental” team just for the heck of it. This team was created for fun using a Kunless 3-5-2 team and I will be making riskier captain choices since I don’t have the balls to do it on my real team. Unfortunately funds to not allow for a very strong 5th mid so i went with Redmond at 6.0 as an alternative to Austin uptop. Once again this is only for fun’s sake.
Hi Eagle, I think that’s the crux of the debate right there really and someone said it earlier too. Given that the 5th is still likely in most cases to be in that price bracket it probably just boils down to a straight choice such as the one you mentioned between say having a Redmond or having an Austin.
Innit i would probably prefer Austin over Redmond though so back to the drawing board.
Eagle, this looks like a great experiment team! Another option in that 5th mid is Gundogan, which helps lessen the loss of Kun, albeit only slightly
One question on my mind is whether there will be a large recategorizing next season of players like Firmino and Sanchez by FPL if they play as forwards this entire season? I’m not sure their criteria for position change, but it would maybe make sense.
Pancho I went with KDB to cover Kun already hence the reason i didn’t chose Gundogan. In my opinion i would rather have Austin instead of Redmond so if i drop Lukaku for Austin then i can have a much stronger mid to replace Redmond with a max price of 9.2 so clearly, I cannot get Sanchez so maybe Wallcott will have to do.
Eagles, Walcott would be good in there. I mentioned above that if Sanchez is injured Then Giroud may be a great ovation for Arsenal coverage at 8.8!