FPL Captain Picks Gameweek 18
Welcome to FPL Captain Picks Gameweek 18
Technically Speaking…
We usually begin with a round-up of how our writers fared last time out, with a bit of head-to-head ‘banter’ in mind, but given that ‘last time out’ was actually GW12, because of Christmas etc, that would probably just be silly and chirlish.
So, here’s how they got on then…
3rd. Jamesimmo – Salah vs Fulham (A). A goal and a bonus was enough to give James and Salah 16 Captain points. Technically this was 2nd, but we oft ignore such details, so last it was.
2nd. Horse – Vardy vs Brighton (H). A bumper haul of a goal, 2 assists and a bonus saw them home on 26. Technically Horse won, but we oft ignore such minor details…
1st!!! Mito – K(ane) & S(on). Anyone remember the birth of Mito’s quasi estate agents / lawyers firm K&S? Mito went dirty with his tactics. By picking two players. Technically it’s cheating but as his mantra has always been ‘if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying’ then technically speaking K&S won with a combined 28 points!
Let’s go see how this week’s writers fare…
Rosco – KdB vs Brighton (H)
(Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
Christmas may be over, but as an FPL asset, KdB is the gift that keeps on giving. Whilst his team-mates were out dancing in their clown shoes and picking up who knows what from who knows who over the festivities, Kevin was left home alone. Literally. A cancelled game meant his frustrated owners had to wait until the weekend to see a return on their investment, and boy did he deliver. We used to dream of the day Kevin would be ‘on penalties’ and then he was. ‘He’s playing too deep’ moaned the masses, so Pep went and put him upfront. Magic. He adapted well, you could have guessed he would, he’s some player is our Kevin.
I asked Horse how much he had written on Bruno, ‘it’s going to be a fairly long one’ he replied, apparently convinced Bruno is a harder sell this week than KDB. ‘No bother, I’ll fill mine out a bit’ I replied. Well, the plan was to jump into the stats and further push the narrative. One small problem, it turns out Bruno trumps him on just about every stat of note. Bar one. Big chances created across the season – KDB 13 vs Bruno’s 10. Whilst KdB has created 45 chances over the season, Bruno has 52. Goals, it’s 13 (Bruno), 3 (KDB). He even matches him for assists with 8 apiece. Team stats are fairly even, with similar levels of goal attempts (234 vs 233), whilst United top City for goals scored (37 to 24). This is going well.
How about the opposition? Again, the stats slightly favour the Red Devils man. Burnley have conceded 209 shots, Brighton 150. However Brighton has conceded more (28) than Burnley (20), but then as mentioned above, United have scored more than City (37 to 24). I’m clutching at straws a bit. I was chatting with Smash this morning and he made a very good point, Burnley have only conceded more than one goal once in their last nine games (following the return of defenders Mee and Tarkowski) and that was in the hammering against yup, you guessed it – Manchester City. So there you have it, clear as mud.
So as the new game week arrives looking like the Man City Team Coach (half-empty), I ask you, why would you look elsewhere when it comes to handing out your Captain’s armband, other than Mr Dependable? No not Bruno, man alive, I’m not even convincing myself now. Ok, so Bruno has better stats, and yes, he’s good away from home, but this is Kevin de Bruyne, likely playing upfront, at home to Brighton. Still not convinced? Flip a coin.
Horse – Bruno vs Burnley (A)
Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
When I was growing up (maaaaany moons ago), Liverpool was the biggest team in England if not in Europe. It’s hard to overstate what a dominant force they were. Then along came Fergie’s Manchester United who went on to dominate the domestic game for what felt like forever. Fast forward to the present. Three seasons of scintillating football and the Scousers have been top of the Premier League for the third consecutive Christmas. But wait, who is that hot on their heels? Manchester United, with Ole at the wheel.
The short trip to Turf Moor on Tuesday night, may not sound like a big game. However, victory will take Man Utd 3 points clear at the top and they will be so up for it. Unbeaten in the Prem in ten matches, with 8 victories, United are the division’s form team. So, who has been the source of United’s renaissance? Ladies and gentlemen, let me present Bruno Fernandes. Last season, in 1187 minutes or roughly 14 complete matches he returned 8 goals, 8 assists, 18 bonus, and 117 points. This averages out to 8.9 points per 90 minutes. This season Man Utd have been better on the road than a pre-Covid Michael Palin. With six victories and one draw, they have scored 21 goals in their 7 away matches so far this season. The 2-2 draw with Leicester was the only time they have failed to score 3 or more goals.
Bruno has been at the heart of this. His returns are 12, 11, 17, 10, 6, 2 and 12. 6 goals, 6 assists, and 14 bonus points over those 7 matches. 70 points or an average of 10 points per match. These are insane stats. So, playing devil’s advocate, why would not you captain Bruno? There are two concerns, firstly how Bruno plays alongside Pogba and secondly the defensive solidity of Burnley at fortress Turf Moor.
One of the great things about FF247 is being able to ask other managers for their perspective.
As I do not watch a great deal of Man United matches, I asked my good friend and United fan Cookie for his input. This is what he had to say. “We haven’t seen Bruno’s numbers tail off; they remain consistent whoever he plays alongside, more so away from home. Pogba has been playing better of late and this only helps United and Bruno. From an attacking point of view, it is often Pogba’s initial ball out of defence that starts the counter-attack that generally involves Bruno (and Rashford). From a creative point of view, Pogba is one of the most dangerous threats from set-pieces and crosses delivered by Bruno.”
This puts my mind at rest on the first point. So how good are Burnley at the back? Sean Dyche has his team organised, and Burnley have conceded just 2 goals in their last 4 home games. I remember being equally impressed by their defensive stats when researching the captaincy article for KdB just before City won 5-0 and his 10-point haul. However, another way of looking at their stats is splitting the division up between top half teams and bottom half teams.
Against the top half of the table:
P7 W0 D2 L5 F3 A15
Against the bottom half
P8 W4 D2 L2 F6 A5
Conclusion? Burnley performs considerably worse against teams in the top half of the table, and come Tuesday evening, the Red Devils could be top of the lot. That my friends is why you captain Bruno. YOLO.
Init – Differential?
Technically speaking you may be thinking that was a bit short and sweet, in terms of just two picks, and you’d be right. But it was so for a reason. When we looked at the options this week there were only really two stand out players and both had good fixtures. The rest of the games all look a bit close to call and we can’t really see many people straying outside of the aforementioned games, if indeed players. A quick look at The Confessional below tells you as much, in microcosm.
The main viable alternatives, which will probably go down as differentials, still stay within those games and they are possibly just Sterling and Rashford.
Outside of that we don’t honestly expect there will be much interest in Wilson vs Sheffield Utd or DCL vs Wolves. Perhaps we will see a few Kane or Son chancers vs Villa and maybe the odd outlandish Lacazette fan vs Palace.
Personally, I won’t be going for any of these of course, I’ll be on one the main two, but we thought we’d best plump the article out a bit with a few random names so it didn’t look like we were just being lazy.
And yes, for the record, and in particular the scoring table next time, I just picked 5 players :wink2:
The confessional…
This is where we ask our entire writing team to tell us who they think they will pick this week…. There are more caveats and get out clauses than a Lionel Messi contract but this is their initial gut feeling based upon who they actually own.
DMC — Kevin
Guy — Bruno
Jamesimmo — Kevin
Horse — Bruno
Matt — Kevin
Swirly — Kevin
Loud Atlas — Kevin
Smash — Kevin
Kop — Kevin
Cookie – Kevin
The Gallant Pioneer — Bruno
Rosco — Kevin
Ellefcee — Kevin
Pre lockdown 2 goals, 3 assists.
Floydeth — Kevin
AT — Kevin
Init — Kevin
Mito — Kevin
VOTE ON THIS WEEK’S CAPTAIN POLL GW18
Thanks for reading FPL Captain Picks Gameweek 18.
FPL FIXTURE TRACKER
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Is it a better strategy to use a FH in a BGW with comparatively more number of fixtures or less? If the answer is more, then what’s the minimum number of matches in a GW that should be scheduled before deciding that the FH wouldn’t be as effective?
Numerous schools of thought – books have been published on the subject – but the fewer the games the more tempting it becomes. If there are more games an organised manager should be able to cope with it via normal transfers. I don’t think it’s possible to give an exact number.
Rather than number of fixtures it’s more – for me – the fixtures themselves. A BGW of Sheffield United v Burnley type fixtures isn’t overly appealing. A BGW where City play Brighton is.
Sometimes the best laid BGW plans can dissolve upon getting the captain right. There was a BGW the other year where Liverpool played Bournemouth and Salah scored 4 I think. Most people had him as captain.
Thanks for that detailed response Kralin
Sean Dyche has said “We (Burnley) have a couple of cases which will affect us over the coming days”
Haller has left WHU for Ajax.
That makes Antonio more attractive option for the DGW.
I feel they’re possibly going to get a forward this month. Hard to imagine them finishing the season with only Antonio who’s prone to shatter into fine grains of silica.
They will but it’s unlikely to happen within the next couple of weeks.
They must have someone in mind as a replacement I’d expect. Probably a case of when this month whether it’s a few days, a week or before the deadline. Josh King has been mentioned
My point exactly. I doubt they’d sell Haller unless they weren’t sure they could get in a striker. Which could be quite soon. But as Ivan pointed out, it’s possible that it’s too soon for the new recruit to seamlessly fit into the team in the next 2-3 GWs unless they’re Bruno Fernandes :popcorn:
Yes, that is very possible as apparently the sale negotiations have been going for the last 5 months.
All that being said it could just be a back up for Antonio anyway so might not really matter
Really? He’s barely played for Bournemouth so far this season.
Yeah I think they are after a decent back up for Antonio unless they are looking at someone to play along side him
With Antonio’s injury history I wouldn’t be surprised if his replacement saw more minutes than him.
If AVL v TOT does happen to get called off my FH pick gets a whole lot easier not having to budget for Kane
We just have to hope that we get more info on it ASAP. Everything feels like it is on hold until we do.
My recommendation to everybody on here would be to have two or three scenarios / teams mapped out in plenty of time which cover;
– Playing without a FH, if that was your intention.
– Playing a FH with that game included.
– Playing a FH without it included.
– Praying no other games go down in the meantime!
It’s also possible we do not even find out about the Spurs game pre deadline
I find that improbable myself but yes it’s always a possibility.
Who ever thought we’d have to be picking teams with a gamble that games may or may not actually happen!
Yeah I’d agree. It’s all pretty ridiculous and we know about that one early enough
We don’t really though. We know enough to plan accordingly either way but not enough to know which way to actually go with it. It makes quite a difference to any teams we pick, as Otieno demonstrated.
There will be more twists and turns before Tues.
You forgot:
– drink heavily and hide under the duvet most of the time
Each to their own but that’s not really for me!
– drink very heavily and hide under the duvet most of the time (after auto-completing)
I’m not one for hiding under anything. Faced this full on for 10 months now so 3 more doesn’t seem like too much of an ask. That’s if it’s all it is. Tell me it’s 6 more again and I’ll probably ask for a straw.
Well, I’ve got complete confidence that the government who said we’d have a world-beating track and trace by June 2020 and normality by Christmas will somehow deliver a successful vaccination programme.
Not that I’m clutching at aforementioned straw or anything.
(Or contemplating a haystack of last straws.)
I’ll order some straws then.
I’ll get the Special Brew.
I hope you are wrong in doing so but something tells me I suspect not!
Do we have any feel for what a Villa team might look like against Spurs? Would Son/Kane be good captain options if the game looks on?
No feel at all. Nobody knows.
I’m fooling with a FH for GW18, and I missed the City covid count. Is Ederson’s “illness” covid? Thanks.
It’s is. He’ll probably be back next week though.
Init,
Thanks very much-especially for answering my second, unasked question
That’s only a guesstimate given the timeframe, I have no idea to the actual state of his health!
Init,
Too modest. You are a very reliable analyst.
Thanks, but I think my point still stands: I have no idea if he’s well or not!
Villa are fielding 7 U23’s and 4 U18’s… This is why I love Klopp, but seriously…. any need :big-lol:
He’s even put the rest on the bench! :hippo:
Bit of overkill by Klopps but I think it’s wise. You either put out all youngsters or your first team squad. Wouldn’t be a good idea to mix however clean they’ve tested.
Given Villa seem to be here this season to humiliate Liverpool, I don’t blame him at all.