FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek9 2016-17
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 9 2016-17.Well would you look at this site now? Itβs like this site is a character in an old RPG video game and it just leveled up and took on a completely new form. Usually leveling up comes with new abilities and gear. But in this case you still get me writing the Fixtures article. I havenβt lost any weight. I havenβt developed any new attacking moves or finishing combos. Still just me. But…in anticipation of this change, I did mark Stoke City #3 on my list of Best Bets last week. That raised a few eyebrows at the time, but after their 2-0 victory over the weekend, it may prove my FPL prowess is still good enough to be used in the future quests of this here site.
And thatβs probably enough with the nerd metaphor. But I will say, if nothing else, picking Stoke last week has to cover up the sin of recommending West Ham once upon a time. Or maybe it doesnβt (*ugh*). Letβs just get to this weekβs fixtures.
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Arsenal – MID (H), SUN (A), TOT (H)
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Arsenal are undoubtedly going to be in most peopleβs top 3 given the current schedule. Should they be the #1 pick though? Given the tough Tottenham game right before the break, you could make a case for another team to take the top spot. And given the fact that Arsenal conceded 2 goals to Swansea, you could definitely make a case that they should be a bit lower on the pecking order. But Iβm going to say that Arsenalβs positives far outweigh any negatives, and that moves them to the top of the heap for me.
First point Iβm going to make here is quite obvious – Theo Walcott is on fire, and he looks like one of the best players in the league. As predicted, Arsenal have made a push to be the highest scoring team in the table, and theyβre now tied with Man City with 19 goals each – and Walcottβs 5 goals have been crucial to that end. Arsenal have found the sweet spot for scoring success. Theyβre not unbalanced like Chelsea (only 5 goal scorers with Costa having 7 himself), and theyβre not erratic like Man U (3 multi-goal games and 4 games with just a single goal scored – *stats prior to Man U v Liverpool on Monday night). Arsenal, on the other hand, have been very steady in their scoring with 6 of their games having multiple scores, and theyβve spread that scoring out between 7 different players. Itβs a tired cliche now, but as long as they stay healthy…
The second point that moves Arsenal to the top of the list this week is the fact that they have Sunderland in their schedule. We picked on Stoke early in the year because they had some monstrously bad results – but we knew they at least had a bit of talent on their squad. Sunderland are a different story altogether. Sunderland are the only remaining team in the league without a win, and based on their performance against Stoke, it appears that they have a real shot at not getting a single win all season.
As for the rest of their schedule, Middlesbrough shouldnβt pose any danger – thereβs a reason they are just a hop, skip and a jump away from relegation themselves. And the Tottenham game may not be a lost cause. The recent history between these teams suggests that it will end in a draw or a 1 goal difference either way – but thereβs nothing here to suggest that playing Arsenal will be any sort of liability for you.
#2) Liverpool – WBA (H), CRY (A), WAT (H)
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*Note that this article was written ahead of the Liverpool v Man U match for Round 8
Win or lose against Man U, Liverpool arenβt going to be playing any team of Unitedβs calibre for the next stretch – and it looks unlikely that any of these teams listed here have any sort of an answer for the Liverpool attack. West Brom have been praised for their defence to this point, but they really havenβt been tested yet. Their two clean sheets came against Palace in the opener and then Middlesbrough two weeks later. But against βbiggerβ clubs like Everton and West Ham? They conceded 2 goals to each. And against Tottenham this past week? They conceded the single goal against a side that was still not fully intact coming off internationals. Prior to the Man U game, Liverpool sit just one goal behind Arsenal and Man City for the scoring lead, and that type of attack is something that WBA havenβt had to deal with yet.
And as far as it goes for Crystal Palace and Watford, both clubs have had their shining moments, but both have also shown in recent results that theyβre still off the pace of the truly big clubs in England. Neither of those clubs possess any real threat to Liverpool as long as theyβre playing up to their standard.
But highlighting Liverpoolβs competition is just half of the equation. On their own, Liverpool have to be reckoned with whether you like who theyβre playing or not. Their defense isnβt stellar, but itβs serviceable enough to achieve their goals of fighting for the Top 4 (in the current top half of the table, only Liverpool and Watford have conceded double digit goal tallies). And even you if you consider their defense a hinderance, itβs still not enough to outweigh the potency of their attack. And their attack has the most Russian Roulette feel to it, doesnβt it? Even though Liverpool have had 7 different goal scorers on the year (just like Arsenal), you honestly donβt know who will be scoring on a week to week basis. At least teams like Arsenal have a sense of a system of check-downs (kind of a like an NFL QB running through his progressions – the best players in Arsenal get first chance at scoring). With Liverpool, nobody knows which player is even considered the star of the team, much less who is going to take first crack at the goal on any given day.
But thatβs part of the charm, isnβt it? Whether we, as fantasy players, appreciate the randomness of the pattern of their goal scoring or not, you canβt deny that itβs effective and that itβs yielding results.
#3) Man City – SOU (H), WBA (A), MID (H)
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Any time you get three teams from the Top 4 as your Best Bets, it feels like a boring article to me. But with the schedule that these three teams have, it would be disingenuous to not have them listed here. I would love to have a team like Stoke or Watford to write about as my third pick this week – but Cityβs schedule is just as attractive as Arsenalβs or Liverpoolβs.
And we canβt get things twisted, Man City are the best team in the league right now. And thatβs not just something obvious to say because I looked at the table, but I think that the table merely reflects that this squad, top to bottom, are the best in the league. As an Everton fan, I couldnβt have been more thrilled to see us hold onto the draw against City this past weekend – but cβmon, City shouldβve won that match 3-1 or 4-1 (I canβt understand why Aguero continues to be on penalties).
Even though theyβre the best team in the league, Iβm putting them down here at #3 based on the Southampton match. Southampton were unlucky to concede late to Burnley, and if they couldβve held that clean sheet it wouldβve been four straight matches without conceding. Now, 1 goal allowed in four matches is still pretty impressive, and I think they have the momentum to at least keep City to a reasonably low scoreline this week. But past that match? I think WBA and Middlesbrough are going to get toasted (same reasons as those listed above).
On their own merit though, City are looking incredibly dangerous now that theyβre fully fit again. Aguero may be absolute βgah-bageβ when taking PKβs recently, but a healthy KDB will help to cover over those types of ills. Letβs not forget, prior to getting hurt, KDB was sitting on a pair of goals and 6 assists to start the year. Nolito is looking like a solid super-sub option. Sterling is healthy. Kompany looks like he may be due to return for a bit of leadership at the back. I could go on and on, but you get the point. The team is loaded, and a nifty little run like this should be good for another 9 points to their campaign.
Teams to Avoid
*Letβs just all agree that until something drastic happens, Sunderland should always be a team that you should consider avoiding. Whatβs a drastic change? Coaching, major transfer? Who knows. But writing about them every week would just get boring. So let this be my blanket statement in saying that I fully acknowledge that Sunderland are the worst, and Iβm not ignoring that fact on a week to week basis.
#1) WBA – LIV (A), MCI (H), LEI (A)
Iβve touched on WBA a couple of times up above, and I donβt need to rehash all of those talking points. What should be considered then is that any team with this schedule coming up would merit inclusion into this list. If Arsenal had this schedule coming up, Iβd probably put them down here too. Itβs just a really tough run having to go on the road to Liverpool and follow that up with a home match against City. Besides that, Leicester are better at home than you think (see below). Based on the probabilities here, WBA are probably due for a maximum of 1 point over their next three.
#2) Crystal Palace – LEI (A), LIV (H), BUR (A)
Palace might get a result at the end of this run against Burnley, but their first two matches are going to be incredibly tough. As for Liverpool, well, weβve talked enough about them for one Everton fanβs liking today. But for Leicester? Theyβre not as bad as youβd think. Leicester have fallen off the radar for many folks this year, but consider that all of Leicesterβs 8 points this year have come while at home – in fact, theyβve yet to lose a home match, and have only conceded a single goal at home this year (itβs true, I had to check 3 times, but itβs true). Leicesterβs home form combined with Liverpoolβs attack is going to make this a very hard run for Palace.
#3) Middlesbrough – ARS (A), BOU (H), MCI (A)
The only reason that Middlesbrough arenβt in the relegation zone right now is due to their goal differential – and thatβs about to change with this schedule coming up. Arsenal and City away? Not good. And Bournemouth at home? That might have looked better up until Bournemouth showed that they at least have the ability for big scores after tacking 6 on Hull this weekend. I donβt think itβs a matter of whether or not Middlesbrough slip down into relegation by the international break, I think itβs more a matter of whether they feel better about fighting for 18th or 19th place.
One Week Punt
Stoke – HUL (A)
Stoke were a Best Bet last week, and rightly not many people took me seriously. Iβm not offended, I didnβt pick them up either, but I donβt make transfers after international breaks. Ok, I made that up. But I didnβt make any transfers after this last international break, and Iβm thinking that Arnautovic might have been a good idea now (not as good of an idea as getting Walcott, but you get the picture).
We already missed out on the super easy Sunderland game, but Stoke are now going to play Hull City after Hull just conceded 6 goals. I know that playing away is always a tough ask for clubs, but now is the time that Stoke can do the most to escape from the relegation zone and put a bit of respectability into their campaign. With Sunderland locked in as the worst and Middlesbrough heading south, Stoke could do themselves a huge favor this weekend with a win.
And if the one week punt equates to browsing turning to buying, Stoke will host 19th place Swansea the week after they play Hull. Just some food for thought there.
Guys I really need some help, don’t seem to be able to pick up any points!
What would you recommend doing?
I’m worried about GK and Capoue/Deeney, no Walcott and 2 Liverpool
thanks
sorry ive got 1FT and 0.3 ITB
Beno
Quite like that squad actually.
I would save the FT and reassess next week with two transfers.
Beno, I agree with GP here. Stick with this squad and I think just bench Barry/Smith/Evans. If you don’t want double Wat attack then a punt on Capoue to Allen could be worth a shot. Either one of them could hit a double digit score as they shown this season, but I wouldn’t put any money on either of them to so I think I’d just stick with what you’ve got.
Brilliant read Guy.
Thank you mate. Settling in to this FPL writing nicely. It’s easy isn’t it?*
*trying to convince myself as I forgot I was on Tips this week. :say-what:
I think it’s easier to write 5 articles a week, every week than it is to write one article every now and again. Once you’re in the daily habit, it’s not bad.
Good luck with the tips. Looking forward to it.
Good luck with the what??
Great one guy! And initially didn’t like the site change much but now it looks even better than previous one as it sets in.
Terrible GW for me dropped from top 5k to 25k, only 30 points this gw
I’d be over the moon with top 25k at the moment π
So, I seem to be sliding down the FF247 Regulars League, but holding my spot at the top of my personal ones. Thank god my mates are rubbish! π
It’s going to be quite a decision on the defensive pick this week. Which 3 would you play?
Valencia (che)
Baines (bur)
Amat (WAT)
Pieters (hul)
Collins (SUN)
??
Banjo, you’ve got issues there :/
Baines and Collins may not even play again, so right away it’s not much of a decision. if you have a free transfer I would consider Baines to Williams/Coleman. Feels sideways, but he is way too expensive to get auto subbed!
Hi Pancho. I’ve already used my FT’s for this week. I’m aware Baines and Collins may not start, but I’ll still order my team on the premise that there are, hence why I was asking how others would order them. With the relatively nice fixtures for Swansea and Stoke I didn’t see it as an urgent issue.
Would you just assume Baines and Collins aren’t starting and put them on the bench then?!
If Baines injury persists then I’ll be swapping him out soon, but it probably wouldn’t be for an Everton replacement! I think Collins will go before Baines, as he’s getting dropped (from a leaky defense) for being rubbish, as opposed to an injury.
Banjo, in that case I would start Baines on the chance he starts. I would just be nervous that Koeman throws him on for defensive help late on if they are holding on to a 1 goal lead. Same thing for Collins because if he plays he actually has CS potential. I would probably have Valencia/Pieters/Baines with Amat/Collins in that order. Cheers and good luck!
What did you do with your FT already? #Curious
Thanks Pancho. Much appreciated. I’m really tempted to start Amat in place of Valencia… As crazy as that sounds!
For the FT’s I finally took the plunge and ditched Ibra for Lukaku. I also did Capoue to Allen. Only reason I went so early with them was to avoid price rises on both.
Now watch Ibra bang in a hatty and Capoue find his shooting boots again π
Banjo, you must have a nice little bit of cash stored up in the bank then. What are your plans for it? In my opinion there are 6 key players to have mostly covered:
Kun – Costa – Lukaku – Walcott/Sanchez/both – Pool Mid – KDB
Use the saved funds next week to move toward any of these you can in my opinion. Cheers!
Yup, 2.4 ITB… And I already have Kun, Costa, Lukaku, Sanchez and a Pool midfielder… OK, my pool midfield is only Lallana, but still π Currently I’m playing Snodgrass and Allen, so I think the plan now is to use the funds to improve Snodgrass. I’m liking what I’ve seen from Son, but rotation scares me. Walcott looks like a serious contender, but doubling up on Ars midfield worries me too. I’m also considering ditching Lallana for a better pool midfielder. Don’t really want to throw any more cash at the defense, as I already have two 5.5 defenders in Valencia and Baines. What do you reckon?
Banjo, I think Snoddy to Walcott would be excellent. Arny could be a good move too but maybe a touch late to wait for next week. Honestly, it feels ridiculous trying to compare any other players in that range to Walcott right now, which probably means he’s the way to go. Maybe even for a hit before this weekend TBH :/
Arrrggghhh!! Well now you’ve planted a seed!!!
there’s just no comparison! Walcott is a season keeper at this point! At least until he gets injured…
1FT and Β£8.2m itb, what should i do?
Does that really say 8.2 itb?! Surely you had a masterplan leaving yourself with that kind of cash?
Melon, if you really have that much cash then I’d do Capoue -> KDB. I don’t see how that is possible, though. Team is fine for this week so you could always stick for a week and save it.
Sorry I’ve definitely messed that up, wish I had that much.
Β£8.2itb if I’m selling antonio… Β£1m itb otherwise!
That makes much more sense! I don’t think there’s anything urgent here. I’d keep Antonio with Sunderland coming up next. My advise would be to save the FT.
Thanks for the response on the navigation buttons guys! Site is great and I really like the tabs bar across the top that scrolls down with you so you can always just click to the home screen or the latest articles, etc.
Guy, thanks for the writeup! True that it feels a bit too easy to tip Ars/Pool/City but it also starts to feel like the potential for some average scores to be in the 80s! Should be some exciting weeks incoming!
I agree. Usually the schedule lines up that I’m able to recommend a team a little farther off the beaten path. I would’ve just been a fantasy football hipster if I tried to leave any of these three out and recommend something above them.
I’m hoping for a better score for myself this week as well. I would love to pull an 80 already. I may just captain Walcott until he breaks.
Wally’s recent track record would tell us that we are all foolish for not owning and captaining him. I’m refraining because I will jinx him for everyone else!
Definitely can’t look past these three ATM! Leicester should give you something to write about after the next few weeks, but they haven’t been themselves this season … well … maybe they’ve actually been themselves this year as opposed to last year. Either way you will have the option!
I don’t know anything about web development so it may be a huge ask, but any chance of having an auto-refresh feature on the “latest comments” section on the right side? Would make it much easier for me to participate in ongoing conversations without having to constantly refresh the browser.
Yes Innit, I am lazy! B)
Hey Pancho,
Init will give you the correct answer but my understanding is that we can either have the auto refresh feature or the ability to upload pics but not both.
Kop, let me get this straight. We could have the auto-refresh feature and not have to see any more of Raz’s monkey pictures?!?! Sounds like a win-win to me B)
You realise that your comment will probably lead to an avalanche of monkey pics π
Kop, so you know what needs to get done before Raz is on here and is able to catch up on the boards!
Hi Pancho, Kop is correct in what he says. I shall expand a bit further and explain it. Basically we looked into having both an auto refresh and pics but for some reason they just aren’t compatible within the current format. We even tried to override it and force the issue but to no avail. If you look at Scout they just have the auto refresh, trust me if both were possible they’d have it. We took the decision to go with the picture route.
There is a chat option whereby you can have both called Chatango but it’s completely different in so much as there’s no direct reply function and it’s not attached to an article it’s just a straight line chat which can’t develop into fluid conversations plus because there’s no way of hitting reply you can’t really just post a comment and come back to it later to check for responses without having to trawl through every post since. Imagine trying that on Friday or Saturday.
So yeah in short it’s as it is unless we can find someone who has actually managed to incorporate both and we can investigate further then.
innit, thanks for taking the time to reply! I figured this might be the case as all of the other updates are top notch and really making forward progress. As a consumer I’m super happy with it so well done!