How To Use Odds From Betting Sites To Decide Who Your FPL Captain Should Be
Your FPL captain is the most important pick every week. Select the right player and you could achieve an obscene amount of points. Choose the wrong player and your rivals could leave you for dust.
Betting sites and online casinos are great tools for deciding who your FLP captain should be. This is because they give you odds for how likely a player is to score and/or keep a clean sheet.
This is how you can use the odds from betting and casino sites to make an informed decision on who to make your captain.
Look at the goal scoring odds of players on casino sites
While many factors go into how an FPL player’s points are tallied, goals are the most valuable currency in the game. These are the scores your players can get for every goal they score (based on their position):
It makes complete sense for strikers to get the lowest score for each goal they score, as they’re likely to get the most chances to put the ball in the back of the net — though it’s crazy that goalkeepers get the same number of points as a defender.
Ideally, you’d like to pick a goalscoring defender but the chances of this happening are pretty remote. This is why betting sites often rate forwards as the more likely to score. For example, take these odds for the Premier League’s top scorer from three of the most respected casinos:
Betway: Mo Salah at 4/1; Harry Kane at 4/1; Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 7/1
Bet365: Mo Salah at 7/2; Harry Kane at 4/1; Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 13/2
William Hill: Mo Salah at 4/1; Harry Kane at 4/1; Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 6/1
There are some deviations in the odds but every site picks the same three players.
What you’ll have spotted is Mo Salah tops the odds (at least jointly) for each of the three we’ve picked. This is really important because Salah is listed as a midfielder in FPL, meaning not only is he tipped as the most likely scorer but his goals count more than Kane’s and Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s. It makes sense then to make Salah your captain.
It’s really also important to note that these odds change all of the time (week-to-week, day-to-day, hour-to-hour). This means it’s a good idea to regularly check the best casino sites in the UK and get their latest predictions. This is so you can make a proper assessment of who is most likely to get the goals you need to get max value from your captain.
Check the match score predictions offered by betting sites
Picking a forward or goalscoring midfielder for your captain is a great idea. However, you may sometimes find yourself in a position where injuries or suspensions have taken your most potent attackers out of your team.
If this happens then it can be rewarding to select a defender who’s likely to keep a clean sheet and has a good chance of getting an assist. This is because the combined scores of these two points measures actually exceeds what you get for a goal:
Defender clean sheet points: 4
Defender assist points: 3
This means defenders can get a total of seven points for a clean sheet and an assist, whereas a midfielders and forwards get six and four points respectively for a goal and a shutout.
To make this a profitable tactic you’ll need to select a wingback/full back or (even better) a midfielder listed as a defender — John Lundstrum was the discount defender of the 2019/20 FPL season for precisely this reason.
However, for it to be a viable tactic you need to check the odds of your captain’s team getting a clean sheet. The match score predictions offered by betting sites is a great way to check this, as you can see from Bet365’s assessment of the likelihood of both teams scoring in three games scheduled for 21 November 2020:
Newcastle vs. Chelsea: 3/4
Aston Villa vs. Brighton 8/13
Burnley vs. Crystal Palace: 10/11
What you’ll learn from these odds is that Aston Villa vs. Brighton is the game where it’s least likely both teams will score. This is a really great example of where you could earn some points from picking a defender as a captain. This is because Brighton’s right-sided wingback, Tariq Lamptey, is a one of the team’s main creative outlets and a player more than capable of providing an assist.
It’s also a great example of why you should also review the tactics used by teams to establish how they’re set up. This means it’s a good idea to check the top tactical analysis football sites in the UK and see the roles managers have assigned to their defenders. This is so you can establish if they occupy an area of the pitch that gives them a chance to get an assist.
We’ve highlighted two ways you can use betting sites and online casinos to decide which of your players is likely to earn you the points you need and who your FPL captain should be.
We’ll admit we’ve only explained how to pick a defender, midfielder, or forward but there’s a reason for this. Goalkeepers, such as Alisson Becker, need to save a penalty to earn significant points, something that’s much less likely than a goal or an assist from a defender, midfielder, or forward.