Value for money and points for free…
“Play air guitar with MTV
That ain’t workin’, that’s the way to do it,
Points for nothing & chics for free.
I want my, I want my, I want my FPL.”
No, I can’t do anything about partners for free, we ‘re talking someone who can’t score in a house of ill repute the night after winning the lottery here.
But through many Sunday mornings of a sore head from trying to work out how 3 pints and a poppadom with the lads cost me £70 I am now well equipped to advise on spending a bare minimum, even if it does severely limit your social life; but hey this is FPL not Love Island.
The way fpl bumps up the price of every player who remembered to tie his laces before going on the pitch means our wonderful polished end of season teams would now cost well over £110m.
Last season I was in Dire Straits spending weeks poring over reports of pre season versus the likes of Hicksville Galaxy and DownUnderChunder FC for who would be coming out the gates hot and who not. Yeh that’s right, I guessed, crossed my fingers, then despairingly Wildcarded in GW2.
Needing to squeeze £10m+ out of a team is not going to be easy, so knowing who was a banker & who was a late season luxury could be a vital guide.
To do this I used points per game rather than total points on the basis we transfer out players if they are injured or not getting in the team. We need players who were scoring at least 4 points per game each and to be averaging over 5ppg across the team to get a good OR. This is looking for the core of a squad, so bench fillers and rotators are not in consideration, hence I set a base of 4 points per game to consider. If they aren’t listed below, they weren’t a 4 pointer, and don’t get looked at.
To give a ‘valuation price’ for each player a base value of £5.5m for 4points per game, with an increase of £2m for each extra point per game gives a good comparison to actual cost.
What we are looking for are players whose actual price comes in lower than this valuation or at least not much over, to get as much ‘valuation’ over our £100m budget as we can.
Players priced well over the valuation need to have some compelling reason they will seriously out perform next season to be chosen otherwise we are overpaying for points on one player that will cost us heavily elsewhere..
All initial prices given are their points per game valuation in millions –
Forwards
Kane £12.5
Jesus £11
Lukaku £9.5
Aguero £8.5
Vardy £7
Firminho,Defoe,Llorente £6.5
Austin £6,
Ayew, Giroud £5.5
Taking away those overvalued by more than £1m, & showing actual price leaves only four -:
Kane £12.5,Jesus £10.5,Austin £6.5,Ayew £5.0
Kane & Jesus have high points per game and their valuations are equal or less than actual price so they are definitely the best choice here, I need to balance that cost with a cheap but still 4 pointer and so select Ayew at £5. Their total actual cost £28m. Added value in points per game +£1.0m
Midfield
Sánchez £11
Hazard £10
Eriksen, Alli £9.5
Mane £9
Coutinho, DeBruyne £8.5
Son, Ozil, Stanislas £7.5
Siggy £7
Pedro, Sterling, Lallana, Antonio £6.5
Zaha, Walcott, Phillips, Fabregas £6
Wijnaldum, Mata, Barkley £5.5
Some are heavily overpriced but there is quite a bit more value to be found here.
More of a problem is that if you take the luxury of Sanchez then its a hard squeeze to find any value with the cash left.
At actual price without £1m overprice are-:
Sanchez £12, Hazard £10.5, Eriksen, Alli, Mané £9.5, Coutinho £9, Sané £8.5, Son £8,Ayew, Fabregas £7, Stanislas, Phillips £6
With Hazard initially injured I chose to have mid/fwd value mix from top 5 teams and go
Eriksen, Mane, Fabregas, Stanislas 4.5m. Total cost £38 . value from points per game +£1.5
Defence
Alonso £9m
Cahill, Rose, Milner £7m
Azpi, Ake, Bertrand £6.5m
Valencia, Walker, Trippier, Bailly £6m
Baines, Daniels, Luiz, Aldo £5.5m
Better value here, with none overpriced. Though only one at the value 7.5+ that we really need to be hitting top OR.
Alonso at actual £7.0 is simply a must have. After that I have to select mainly on not overspending but still gaining value in points per game.
I chose Ake £5.0, Bertrand £5.5, Trippier £5.5 and a 4.0 for actual cost – £26m Added value in points per game +£5.0m
To justify this I’m classing Alonso as a MID and having 4-4-2 as my initial default base line-up.
The players in midfield below 7 (actual price) of good value are too few to choose over having Alonso + 3 good defenders.
(This likely changes some weeks in when one or two of the cheap MIDs turn out to be gold dust)
Goalkeepers
Heaton,Lloris £6m, Adrian,Butland £5.5m
Given the initial fixtures, I am plumping Hart £4.5 (actual cost) & a 4.0 for £8.5m Added value in points per game +£1.0m
My Final Team
Based upon the above information my team looks like this, so far…
Hart, (A 4.0)
Alonso, Trippier, Bertrand, Ake (A 4.0)
Mane, Eriksen, Fabregas, Stanislas (A 4.5)
Kane, Jesus (Ayew)
Team actual spend £99m, Added value in points per game +£9.5m.
This means I should be getting 5 points extra every game week than if I wasn’t using this method.
Over the season that’s about 200 points for nothing, but no chics 
It’s going to be tighter than a gnats chuff, & the big call for now looks to be Kane &/or Sanchez.
Thanks for reading Value for money and points for free…. This article was written by Takasaki Tiger
The Fixture Tracker…
Interesting article. What’s a concern is that I don’t have many of them in my current draft
That doesn’t mean you are wrong, it may be of more help if WC around GW2/3 to know who long term form players are..
Thanks for this Tiger it’s an extremely interesting view on building a squad. Unsurprisingly
I’m old school when it comes to picking my squad, I just look at form & fixtures.
Thats a good way too, though I tend to find myself too easily convinced by flash inthe pans and ending up constantly shifting in & out. So I was looking for a way to show up long term form.
Picking an entire team that way is probably overkill, and I doubt my team ends up entirely like that
City are going full back crazy!
Yeah and then Pep will probably play Sterling at FB he’s that crazy
Well they did get rid of all 4, so even Pep had to be planning to get some replacements.
PS West Ham say cheers Pep. think you saved a near relegation battle this season with that
Morning all draft 4 how does this look , not convinced the big 3 up top will work I also thk City & Spurs will be the highest scoring teams this season not settled on Austin but there are a couple of options around that price. Also not sure on Pogba over Mika.
Any observations would be appreciated 😉
Austin or Jrod , Alonso is a must have ( yet I took him out but will replace shortly ) , Phillips could be upgraded and im sure you can find a stronger attackin fb than Dawson. You see Elle im commenting now , for what its worth lol
Not seen Alonso in many drafts but he could score big. It seems to be Alli and Lukaku vs Kane and Pogba not sure which is better. Austin could be a good pick if he gets the nod. Interesting you have gone for Salah over Coutinho but he appears to be playing deeper this year
If it’s a choice of Kane & Pogba v Lukaku & Alli I’d go for the latter. There’s unlikely to be much between Kane & Lukaku either way but currently I’d expect Alli to comfortably outscore Pogba.
You could be right Kop I keep changing it around just thk Kane will have a big season still not settled on it 😉
That’s the way I’m currently looking at it. It still feels wrong that I don’t have Kane currently
+1
I’d agree with Kop over Alli and Pogba, though I think Pogba will do better than people are expecting.
One must also take into account that Liverpool fans will generally refuse to
rate Pogba
I think it depends if they sign Matic. If they do Pogba will get forward a lot more
Yes he will. And was unfortunate not to score more last season.
Anyway, Mikhi is a better option at the same price on current form.
I think Eriksen is a safer pick than Alli. Seems to be involved with everything Spurs have going forward and doesn’t score all that many himself. Will Alli score as many as he did last year?
Cheers Yogis & Smash just thk Kane is a must his stats over the last 3 yrs are very consistent, alli & Luk v Kane & Pogba will be close tough one I’ve still time to change, Salah look sharp but it’s a toss of a coin cheers again guys
Salah/Coutino/Mane/Firminho is probably one of those LFC things which changes every GW again
Pick & stick just before gw1 I think.
Not keen on WBA so far myself.
Sold Fletcher, Chadli on the out, no new signings.
And last season they definitely had a policy of trying to score at home and not bother about clean sheets.
Evans injured again, Nyom hacking again, they just dont look like a team thats not going to be hovering around the drop zone yet
Foster GKP 4.5 is still hard to shake off though
Yes Tiger WBA not the best team in the world but not many options at 6m the only reason I have a couple is there initial fixtures are good
I agree WEst Brom have looked poor so far. That might mean they will be very defensive again though
Do we thk Willian can secure is place in the team 😉
Me, I think till Haz is back. Then either him or Pedro gets benched depending on form.
Im also wondering about Fabregas, really shone when they had him in end of last season, hoping he keeps his place, but more punty than Willian first few games
Looks like Both Willian and Fabregas will begin the season.
I read yesterday that Fabregas has been told he will get more game time this season. I looked at his stats from his games last season – impressive. Could be a great pick.
4-3-3, nothing in the bank
Very solid there Cookie can’t argue against any of those choices. I prefer 3-4-3 but you do have Alonso in there
Hey Smash,
I was just playing around seeing what a premium 4 at the back would mean elsewhere. I don’t mind it to be fair. Sure lots of tinkering will still take place!
That’s a strong line up, but the balance doesn’t look right. You could easily find Ramsey and Miki on the bench come GW1. I think you have to take some value out of that defence.
I’d expect both Rambo and Miki to start
expecting an early wildcard? wouldn’t fancy going long term with 3 non playing subs. I am still afraid of picking ramsey even though he is in good form in pre-season but as a gunnar i fear he might play in too deep of a role to score consistantly. i myself have willian- he is showing great form and is set to start cause of hazard’s injury. and im pretty sure coutinho is going to be set backwards with the starting 3 upfront for liverpool going to be salah mane and firmino
Not planning an early wildcard but that’s generally what happens with me 😉
I was only tinkering away to see what could be done. It won’t be my
GW1 team.
Carrol & Romeu were likely to play, they got good game time last season. Myself I quite fancy Ramsey as a 3rd mid at 7m he doesnt have to score many to justify his place, assists will do.
I actually like this team Cookie some good points made for Mika & Ram but Tripper, Alonso & Cedric almost playing MF looks good 😉
Game time for Mikhi & Rambo don’t concern me though I would accept that Willian is showing good preseason form thus far and if that continues he could be a good early call instead of Ramsey until Hazard returns.
What s up cookie ? Good picks there, a lot same as my team, i fancy kun a lot, more than a lot actually , but are you sure pep will choose him over jesus? Do you trust city s defence to pick kompany?
Hey Teo, Kompany’s only problem is fitness – keep him fit and he’ll be up there amongst the best scoring defenders.
Kun is one to keep watching over preseason to be assured that he will start.
Talk to my City guy and his predicted team sheet for City on GW1 as of now, did not include Kun.
Now grant it, he said that with Pep who really knew so he wasn’t showing a ton of confidence in the team sheet, but I found that a bit alarming. Will certainly be monitoring that this pre-season, for one we can’t afford to get that wrong and two if it is Jesus, I want to be on that for 1.0 less.
I’d fully expect Aguero to start with Jesus. When he was out the team he was coming back. If Pep don’t think much of him he would have sold him to Chelsea.